COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents)
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COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents
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|COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace
Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below). Please read Updates:
- To view COVID Odyssey, Click on HOME in the Menu at the top of the page or Click on COVID Odyssey (top left) or here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/
- For annotations for some posts see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/covid-19-my-odyssey/
COVID Odyssey: Winter Windups
COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~ Summary 2020 revisited~ How many people may one person infect on average? – COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey
COVID Odyssey: Misinformation Game ~ Avoid spreading false and misleading information
COVID Odyssey: [Pre-]Summer Summary~ How many people may one person infect on average?
COVID Odyssey: Don’t underestimate Ro ~ How many people may one person infect on average?
COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation
COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification
COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?
COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition
COVID Odyssey: OZ Adventure ~ COVID OdOZy
COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)
COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?
COVID Odyssey: Independence Day 4 July ~ May we stay [virus] free
COVID Odyssey: Matariki, Maori New Year ~ New Dawning
COVID Odyssey: Mid-Winter Christmas Cheer ~ Odyssey Completed
COVID Odyssey: Deep Spring Clean ~ When will the next wave come?
- COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze [Introduction]
- COVID Odyssey: The Odyssey
- COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves
(any new posts may appear at the top of this list and will not appear on this list- I want to keep this numbering as it is currently)
- COVID-19: Methods of Analysis
- COVID-19 Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser!
===== Findings =====
COVID-19 NZ: [Ro~3, 4, or 6?; see Update] Re~5.8 & Ro~6?
===== Findings =====
- COVID-19 NZ: Is Ro < 3? Is Ro = 5.4 feasible?
- COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V
- COVID-19 NZ: Tracer design and implementation seriously flawed. Create your own QR code for free.
- COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 to 2.8 others?
- COVID-19 NZ: Would the number of cases be double if L4 delayed one week?
- COVID-19: NZ introduces NZ COVID Tracer App; Worldwide 5,000,000 cases, 325,000 deaths & 2,000,000 recovered
- COVID-19 NZ: Could NZ have had over 4,000 cases early in April?
- COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect almost three others?
- COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?
- COVID-19 NZ: Flattening the curve
- COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?
- COVID-19 USA: Are any days of the week consistently high or low?
- COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!
- COVID-19 NZ, USA, China: When is the midpoint? When will an outbreak be over?
- COVID-19 USA: What a difference a day makes!
- Stay Away.
- COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?
- COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of confirmed cases exceed 3 million?
- COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages
- COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages
- COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases
- COVID-19 NZ: Using Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers III
- COVID-19: 1,000,000 recovered. These may not have immunity.
- Helicopter money
- COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?
- COVID-19 NZ: We are down to Level 3 Lockdown. Keep your Bubble exclusive and small!
- COVID-19 NZ: Schools reopen this week. Will there be transmission of virus from children to adults?
- COVID-19 NZ: Fibonacci sequences (Cont)
- COVID-19: read my posts here! – Alan’s Ark [Excerpts]
- COVID-19: Can NZ do contact-tracing effectively quickly enough?
- COVID-19 NZ: Could cases have quadrupled if we had delayed Lockdown Level 4?
- NZ COVID-19: Without Lockdown would cases have at least doubled? Does each person infect 2 others (Re=2)?
- A week until L3
- COVID-19: New Zealand Government will announce if we will go down to Level 3 Lockdown. Stay in Level 4!
- COVID-19: What is the risk of extending your Bubble? Stay in your own Bubble!
- COVID-19 NZ: Do it once, do it Right! Extend L4 Lockdown for at least an extra week!
- COVID-19 cases reach 2,000,000; 125,000+ deaths; almost 485,000 recovered. How about NZ?
- COVID-19 Easter
- COVID-19 USA. Trump this: Over 500,000 cases and 20,000 deaths. Worldwide over 100,000 deaths and 400,000 recovered.
- Have a great Easter in Lockdown. Stay in your bubble!
- NZ COVID-19: NZ has its second death
- NZ COVID-19. Conclusions at initial Lockdown midpoint. NZ should stay at Level 4 Lockdown for an extra 4 weeks.
- COVID-19 NZ II: How many cases and deaths may we expect? When should NZ come out of Level 4 Lockdown?
- COVID-19 NZ: How many Cases and deaths may we expect?
- Coronavirus II (an acrostic)
- COVID NZ: Have Cases peaked? Could this mean Lockdown less than 4 weeks?
- COVID-19: Deaths compared with China
- COVID-19: NZ is doing well
- COVID-19 NZ: Like yesterday the straight line is 6 below the actual number of cases
- COVID-19 worldwide: Over 1 million cases; 50,000 deaths; 200,000 recovered
- Cat’s rack
- COVID-19: NZ Cases currently linear
- COVID-19 in NZ: Did you think my “predictions” were bad? What do you think of these scenarios/ modelling?
- COVID-19: Over 850,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. Will the number of deaths reach 150,000 in the next 3 weeks?
- The Silver Lining from the COVID-19 Cloud
- COVID-19: 700,000 cases & 33,500 deaths. Deaths: worldwide 10 x China; Italy > 3 x China; Spain 2 x China.
- COVID-19: USA now has more cases than China. The first 10 days of Lockdown. Happy virus-free day to us.
- COVID-19: Lockdown Day One. Worldwide over 520,000 cases, 23,500 deaths & 120,000 recovered.
- Cabin fever
- COVID-19: NZ should have gone to Level 4 (lockdown) earlier. Worldwide 420,718 cases; 18,800 deaths.
- COVID-19: Go to Level 4 immediately to flatten the curve. Will the number of cases worldwide reach 45 million in the next month?
- COVID-19: Over 300,000 cases now! Will the death toll reach 2 million in the next month?
- COVID-19: World deaths exponential
- COVID-19: 10,000 deaths; almost 250,000 cases. Beware of future virus waves.
- COVID-19: Now more deaths in Italy than in China
- COVID-19: The importance of social distancing
- COVID-19: Almost 200,000 cases and 8,000 deaths
- Coronavirus crisis
- Coronavirus: NZ borders now toughest in the world
- Bitcoins’ biggest single day downswing in 7 years!
- Long drop: Markets down the toilet
- Trump Depression
- COVID-19 in China: How likely is the death rate to be 4.2% and 4.3%?
- Could your country have more than 10,000 cases of COVID-19?
- COVID-19 Disclosure and Index
- China and South Korea may have COVID-19 under control
- Happy Belated Birthday Phyllis
- COVID-19 in China: Only 40 new cases. With 5,111 serious/critical cases, will there still be between 3200 and 3500 deaths?
- Deaths in China now 3097 from Covid-19
- Is the death rate for Coronavirus between 3.85% and 3.9%?
- Today’s quote from ‘The Plague’ by Albert Camus
- Coronavirus deaths in China III. Is the final death toll going to be between 3100 and 3200?
- Coronavirus (3000 deaths): Estimating the death rate in China
- Coronavirus Deaths in China: Estimating the midpoint and total number of deaths from the Data
- Hoppy Leap Day
- Coronavirus deaths in China II. Is the final death toll going to be between 3200 and 3500?
- Estimating the Final number of deaths in China from Coronavirus. Is the final death toll going to be less than 3000 deaths?
- Coronavirus. An Acrostic.
- Coronavirus: 80,000 cases in 40 countries/territories and 2700 deaths
- The Simpsons explain Cryptocurrency
- Coronavirus Model 3 (Sigmoid curve). Can the Grand Total of deaths in China be less than 4,250?
- Are Chinese Coronavirus deaths fake news? A quadratic fits well to the data
- Will Coronavirus infections reach 800,000 in mid March???
My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:
Data for my posts can be found at:
I share my posts at: