COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents)
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COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace

Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below). Please read Update:
COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?
Original Finding: One infected person may on average infect 5.3782 other people (more than 5 and 3/8 and possibly 6) in New Zealand in March (even 5.3782 is twice as many people as most experts expect).
The total number of cases can be expected to almost double every two days (1.4^2 = 1.96).


COVID odyssey
Forward marching
Bible prophesy

Alan Grace
30 May 2020


COVID Odyssey: Don’t underestimate Ro ~ How many people may one person infect on average?
COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation
COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification
COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?
COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition
COVID Odyssey: OZ Adventure ~ COVID OdOZy
COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)
COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?
COVID Odyssey: Independence Day 4 July ~ May we stay [virus] free
COVID Odyssey: Matariki, Maori New Year ~ New Dawning
COVID Odyssey: Mid-Winter Christmas Cheer ~ Odyssey Completed
COVID Odyssey: Deep Spring Clean ~ When will the next wave come?

  1. COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze
  2. COVID Odyssey: The Odyssey
  3. COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves
    (any new posts may appear at the top of this list and will not appear on this list- I want to keep this numbering as it is currently)
  4. COVID-19: Methods of Analysis
  5. COVID-19 Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser!
  6. #
    ===== Findings =====
    COVID-19 NZ: [Ro~3, 4, or 6?; see Update] Re~5.8 & Ro~6?
    ===== Findings =====
  7. COVID-19 NZ: Is Ro < 3? Is Ro = 5.4 feasible?
  8. COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V
  9. COVID-19 NZ: Tracer design and implementation seriously flawed. Create your own QR code for free.
  10. COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 to 2.8 others?
  11. COVID-19 NZ: Would the number of cases be double if L4 delayed one week?
  12. COVID-19: NZ introduces NZ COVID Tracer App; Worldwide 5,000,000 cases, 325,000 deaths & 2,000,000 recovered
  13. COVID-19 NZ: Could NZ have had over 4,000 cases early in April?
  14. COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect almost three others?
  15. COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?
  16. COVID-19 NZ: Flattening the curve
  17. COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?
  18. COVID-19 USA: Are any days of the week consistently high or low?
  19. COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!
  20. COVID-19 NZ, USA, China: When is the midpoint? When will an outbreak be over?
  21. COVID-19 USA: What a difference a day makes!
  22. Stay Away.
  23. COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?
  24. COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of confirmed cases exceed 3 million?
  25. COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages
  26. COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages
  27. COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases
  28. COVID-19 NZ: Using Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers III
  29. COVID-19: 1,000,000 recovered. These may not have immunity.
  30. Helicopter money
  31. COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?
  32. COVID-19 NZ: We are down to Level 3 Lockdown. Keep your Bubble exclusive and small!
  33. COVID-19 NZ: Schools reopen this week. Will there be transmission of virus from children to adults?
  34. COVID-19 NZ: Fibonacci sequences (Cont)
  35. COVID-19: read my posts here! – Alan’s Ark [Excerpts]
  36. COVID-19: Can NZ do contact-tracing effectively quickly enough?
  37. COVID-19 NZ: Could cases have quadrupled if we had delayed Lockdown Level 4?
  38. NZ COVID-19: Without Lockdown would cases have at least doubled? Does each person infect 2 others (Re=2)?
  39. A week until L3
  40. COVID-19: New Zealand Government will announce if we will go down to Level 3 Lockdown. Stay in Level 4!
  41. COVID-19: What is the risk of extending your Bubble? Stay in your own Bubble!
  42. COVID-19 NZ: Do it once, do it Right! Extend L4 Lockdown for at least an extra week!
  43. COVID-19 cases reach 2,000,000; 125,000+ deaths; almost 485,000 recovered. How about NZ?
  44. COVID-19 Easter
  45. COVID-19 USA. Trump this: Over 500,000 cases and 20,000 deaths. Worldwide over 100,000 deaths and 400,000 recovered.
  46. Have a great Easter in Lockdown. Stay in your bubble!
  47. NZ COVID-19: NZ has its second death
  48. NZ COVID-19. Conclusions at initial Lockdown midpoint. NZ should stay at Level 4 Lockdown for an extra 4 weeks.
  49. COVID-19 NZ II: How many cases and deaths may we expect? When should NZ come out of Level 4 Lockdown?
  50. COVID-19 NZ: How many Cases and deaths may we expect?
  51. Coronavirus II (an acrostic)
  52. COVID NZ: Have Cases peaked? Could this mean Lockdown less than 4 weeks?
  53. COVID-19: Deaths compared with China
  54. COVID-19: NZ is doing well
  55. COVID-19 NZ: Like yesterday the straight line is 6 below the actual number of cases
  56. COVID-19 worldwide: Over 1 million cases; 50,000 deaths; 200,000 recovered
  57. Cat’s rack
  58. COVID-19: NZ Cases currently linear
  59. COVID-19 in NZ: Did you think my “predictions” were bad? What do you think of these scenarios/ modelling?
  60. COVID-19: Over 850,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. Will the number of deaths reach 150,000 in the next 3 weeks?
  61. The Silver Lining from the COVID-19 Cloud
  62. COVID-19: 700,000 cases & 33,500 deaths. Deaths: worldwide 10 x China; Italy > 3 x China; Spain 2 x China.
  63. COVID-19: USA now has more cases than China. The first 10 days of Lockdown. Happy virus-free day to us.
  64. COVID-19: Lockdown Day One. Worldwide over 520,000 cases, 23,500 deaths & 120,000 recovered.
  65. Cabin fever
  66. COVID-19: NZ should have gone to Level 4 (lockdown) earlier. Worldwide 420,718 cases; 18,800 deaths.
  67. COVID-19: Go to Level 4 immediately to flatten the curve. Will the number of cases worldwide reach 45 million in the next month?
  68. COVID-19: Over 300,000 cases now! Will the death toll reach 2 million in the next month?
  69. COVID-19: World deaths exponential
  70. COVID-19: 10,000 deaths; almost 250,000 cases. Beware of future virus waves.
  71. COVID-19: Now more deaths in Italy than in China
  72. COVID-19: The importance of social distancing
  73. COVID-19: Almost 200,000 cases and 8,000 deaths
  74. Coronavirus crisis
  75. Coronavirus: NZ borders now toughest in the world
  76. Bitcoins’ biggest single day downswing in 7 years!
  77. Long drop: Markets down the toilet
  78. Trump Depression
  79. COVID-19
  80. COVID-19 in China: How likely is the death rate to be 4.2% and 4.3%?
  81. Could your country have more than 10,000 cases of COVID-19?
  82. COVID-19 Disclosure and Index
  83. China and South Korea may have COVID-19 under control
  84. Happy Belated Birthday Phyllis
  85. COVID-19 in China: Only 40 new cases. With 5,111 serious/critical cases, will there still be between 3200 and 3500 deaths?
  86. Deaths in China now 3097 from Covid-19
  87. Is the death rate for Coronavirus between 3.85% and 3.9%?
  88. Today’s quote from ‘The Plague’ by Albert Camus
  89. Coronavirus deaths in China III. Is the final death toll going to be between 3100 and 3200?
  90. Coronavirus (3000 deaths): Estimating the death rate in China
  91. Coronavirus Deaths in China: Estimating the midpoint and total number of deaths from the Data
  92. Hoppy Leap Day
  93. Coronavirus deaths in China II. Is the final death toll going to be between 3200 and 3500?
  94. Estimating the Final number of deaths in China from Coronavirus. Is the final death toll going to be less than 3000 deaths?
  95. Coronavirus. An Acrostic.
  96. Coronavirus: 80,000 cases in 40 countries/territories and 2700 deaths
  97. The Simpsons explain Cryptocurrency
  98. Coronavirus Model 3 (Sigmoid curve). Can the Grand Total of deaths in China be less than 4,250?
  99. Are Chinese Coronavirus deaths fake news? A quadratic fits well to the data
  100. Will Coronavirus infections reach 800,000 in mid March???





My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:

Data for my posts can be found at:

I share my posts at:

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