The anti-vaxxer An unjabbed golfer named Marty An anti-vaxxer not smarty Marty played golf for fun Prayed for a hole in one Two small holes in one arm Could have prevented harm COVID delayed his wake party Alan Grace 26 October 2021 We look at the results for Poll 5: Which choice do you think…

# Tag: Coronavirus

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 14 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

Last week New Zealand introduced a Traffic-Light system to be introduced at the end of November if Auckland (Auckland’s three District health Boards) hopefully has 90% of its population fully vaccinated. See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/300436587/covid19-nz-how-the-traffic-light-system-will-work-and-what-new-zealand-needs-to-do-to-reach-it At the end of September, 38% were fully vaccinated. We look at possible vaccination target scenarios to achieve the 90% goal. This…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 13 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We present an alternative way of producing vaccination targets by starting with an initial target of 40% instead of 38%. This time, for the top and bottom values for f, we compare the curves for 38% and 40%. We obtain the following tables: Notes: September means at the end of September, . . . Look…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 12 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We present an alternative way of producing vaccination targets by starting with an initial target of 40% instead of 38%. We obtain the following tables: Notes: September means at the end of September, . . . Look at the bottom line in the tables. The graph becomes (look at the top/highest curve): The PDF below…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 11 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta variant over 2000 cases ~ When will we achieve 90% full vaccination?

Damn Auckland For 90% vaccination Auckland’s ransom creates frustration Is this believable Or sure achievable We need more freedom not damnation Alan Grace 19 October 2021 94 Delta cases today (Tuesday 19 October); total 2,099 cases. This is the highest daily number of cases New Zealand has ever had. See: COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 10 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta variant~ 1895 cases in 2 months

We now have had 1895 cases in the last two months since the beginning of this outbreak. Tomorrow the number of cases will exceed 1900. The PDF version will be easier to read: NZCasesDeltaZ90u Tomorrow we will have over 1900 cases. Last year in the first outbreak we had 1504 cases. The first 1472 cases…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

We will discuss poll 4: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67051043 Here are the poll results: We believe the best choice is: The curve corresponding to 1.60. Below is a modified graph with extra vertical gridlines added to show quarter-months intervals (approximately 7.5-day intervals) The PDF below may be easier to read: COVID38Dec90 The graph was produced from these…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 8 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ Can New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated by year end?

We first assume that New Zealand could have 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. We are not saying that this may be possible but look at some targets that may need to be reached if 90% full vaccination is achievable. At the end of September (Month 1) New…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 7 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 3 results~ When will New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated?

We will discuss poll 3: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67022662 Here are the poll results: I believe the best choice is: 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated is not possible by February. First look at: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible? COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We need to have a way of measuring if the progress of the percentage of fully vaccinated people may be sufficient to achieve a target of 80% or 90% fully vaccinated within a desired timeframe, say the end of the year or at the end of February. We suggest the calculations based on v(f –…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 5 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2 results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 We will show that the most suitable response for Poll 2 (see below) is 24,000 Cases. Vaccination will already be having an effect on…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 4 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Outbreak 2021~ What can we learn from the data?

We look again at the data for the current Delta variant outbreak in New Zealand. Also see this version: NZCasesDeltaRollingM1 Below is a zoomed in snapshot of the above: The figures in the first column (except the last two) are a rolling 30-day total. We have a number of days when the total was around…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 3 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 Poll 2 This post describes a second poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). Links to the first poll and the results…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…

## COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up ~ NZ COVID-19 Poll~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

New Zealand currently has about 34% (about 1/3) of its population over 12 fully vaccinated. For Norway the percentage is 67 % (about 2/3). When New Zealand reaches 67% fully vaccinated, which of the following estimates do you think provides the most suitable worst-case scenario for New Zealand over the next 12 months? a) 1,300,000…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 19 ~ Delta variant ~ The first ten days of Lockdown

The first ten days of Lockdown At the start of Day One Lockdown bubble begun Around hour of midnight Now no virus in sight When will the fight be won? Chorus Healthy virus-free day for us Healthy virus-free day for us Healthy virus-free day dear bubble Healthy virus-free day for us It’s halfway through Day…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 18 ~ Delta variant: NZ vs Norway~ How may % vaccination affect case numbers?

We use Norway data to estimate a worst-case scenario for Norway and New Zealand. We anticipate we could have 500,000 cases over a one-year period and 2100 deaths. Even using Norway’s actual case data provides a scary scenario for New Zealand. New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 17 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Will the total exceed 1500 cases?

We estimate a new range for the current Delta outbreak in New Zealand to be 1329 to 1517 cases. We have previously estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 16 ~ Lockdown breaches ~ The COVID Cowboys

The COVID cowboys Clark and Willie Wanaker One Were among the breaches boys After lockdown had begun Cowboys playing with their toys Having lots of fun Making lots of noise While we wished our work was done Siouxsie Wiles made a few breaches With wily pink smiles and poise Sinking in the sea; sunning on…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible?

The vaccine hesitant includes a range of people ranging from people fearful of getting a jab, those fearful of the consequences of getting a jab, to anti-vaxxers. ‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 9 ~ Ro > Re ~ How much greater is Ro?

We consider how much greater Ro is than Re. We look at the following table: For definitions see: Welcome In New Zealand both r = SQRT(2) and r = 1.429 provide good estimates for the total number of cases from 21 to 25 August 2021. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant outbreak 2021 ~ Estimating Ro and Re

We estimate under the current Lockdown Level 4 in Auckland one person may infect 6 to 6.3 other people in New Zealand in the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19. Without lockdown we have estimated one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect 9 to 12.75 other people. See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14 ~ Estimating total 2021 Cases ~ The range still appears to be 940 to 1073 cases

We have estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be? You may like to look at the…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 8 ~ Ro ~ Estimating Re & Ro by 3 straight lines

We have estimated Re and Ro for COVID-19 using the linear equation y = 17r – 18, where r is a daily growth rate of infections (estimated over the next 5 days). We now add in two extra lines to complete the approximations. The three lines are: y = 17r – 18 …

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 7 ~ Ro ~ Estimating Ro by a straight line

We estimate Re and Ro for COVID-19 using the linear equation y = 17r – 18, where r is a daily growth rate of infections (estimated over the next 5 days). i.e. We use the value calculated for y in the equation as an estimate for Re and Ro. Update: See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 6 ~ Ro ~ Estimates for the Alpha and Delta variants

We have already estimated Ro for the original COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020 and for the Delta variant. We have estimated Ro between 5 and 8 for the original COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020. We have estimated Ro between 9 and 12.7 for the original Delta COVID-19 Outbreak. We now estimate Ro for the 2020 Alpha variant. …

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide

We revise our estimates for Ro worldwide. Previously we had the ranking below (see r1 and Re1 columns) for the 2020 outbreak: The above was calculated using: Note that n = 10 days and r[d] is a daily rate of increase (growth factor) calculated over the next 5 days starting on day d for each…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be?

Since there were only 20 new cases in New Zealand yesterday (4 September) we revise our estimate for the total number of cases in this outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19. First it is useful to look at the outbreak in New Zealand in early 2020. Please look at this post: COVID Odyssey: Winter…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 11 ~ Delta variant ~ Will NZ Cases exceed last year?

The total number of cases in this outbreak in New Zealand is likely to exceed the the total in the outbreak early in 2020 if the midpoint is in September. Update. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be? Yesterday the number of…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

We analyse the 2021 outbreak in New Zealand. We hope that the midpoint has been reached. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined as a…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 16 ~ Methods used to estimate Ro

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:

In this post we shall look at ways experts analyse the spread of COVID-19. My own mathematical techniques are simple but have produced some surprising results. Analysis can quite often involve solving systems of differential equations (see below). How Ro is…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 9 ~ C = ar^d ~ A trivial way to estimate total case numbers

We have used the formula C = ar^d to estimate case numbers in New Zealand. The easiest was to calculate C is to start with the value a, and on each successive day multiply the previous day’s estimate by r. In last years initial outbreak we saw in New Zealand r = 1.4 and r…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 8 ~ 2021 Delta midpoint ~ Are we there yet?

We hope we are near the midpoint for the current COVID-19 outbreak (Delta variant) in New Zealand. We had around 82 cases yesterday (29 August) and the previous day. We hope that the number of new cases will start to decline very soon and that there will only be one peak. In the original 2020…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 7 ~ Will we have 100 cases today? ~ 1000 total by Wednesday?

COVID-19 case numbers continue to rise in New Zealand. We hope that case numbers will peak very soon. We had 82 cases yesterday. Case numbers can be estimated using the formula C(d) = 1.16 x SQRT(2)^d where ^ means ‘to the power of’ and d is the number of days from 10 August 2021. We modify this…

## COVID (A reverse poem)

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:

Silence (A reverse poem) I am part of this disadvantaged world And I refuse to believe that This will all change I believe this may not be possible presently “Gender, Race, Culture makes one equal” Is a lie and so now…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula

We have developed a simpler formula for estimating the number of cases in New Zealand for the current COVID-19 Delta variant outbreak.. Our formula is: C = r^d where r = 1.429 and d = the number of days since 10 August 2021. Here is the PDF version: NZCases2021r The effective reproduction rate (Re) is…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 5 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Where will the midpoint be?

We revisit the spread of COVID-19 in New Zealand in early 2020. The object is to apply the exercise below to the current 2021 Delta outbreak in New Zealand. If you have not done this exercise, please do it now: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 3 ~ Estimating the number of 2020 Cases ~ Where…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 4 ~ Delta variant 2021 ~ Case numbers appear exponential Dr Bloomfield

New Zealand COVID-19 (Delta variant) Case numbers are exponential. From today’s NZ Herald (26 August page A4): Case numbers can be estimated using the formula C = 1.16 x SQRT(2)^d where ^ means ‘to the power of’ and d is the number of days from 10 August 2021. We estimate the total number of cases…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 3 ~ Estimating the number of 2020 Cases ~ Where is the midpoint?

We revisit the spread of COVID-19 in New Zealand in early 2020. The object is to apply the exercise below to the current 2021 Delta outbreak in New Zealand. To estimate the total number of cases, we first have to consider when we may have reached the midpoint. Even if the midpoint is assessed accurately,…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 2 ~ Delta variant ~ Lockdown 4 appears to be working

Lockdown Level 4 appears now to be starting to bring down the daily rate of increase (r) of case numbers of COVID-19 in New Zealand. Update: See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula ee the last column in the table below where values for…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ ~ Delta variant ~ May one person infect 12 others?

Based on NZ current case numbers for the Delta variant, we estimate on average one person may infect at least 12 others (Ro > 12) without quarantine or isolation. Case numbers may close to triple over a two-day period (1.7 x 1.7 = 2.89). For the Delta variant worldwide, we have estimated Ro to be…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 15 ~ Executive summary ~ Our formula for Ro

Update for New Zealand Delta variant data and results see: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 2 ~ Delta variant ~ Lockdown 4 appears to be working For COVID-19 in the original 2020 outbreak, we have estimated Ro to…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 14 ~ COVID-19 ~ Simulations to develop our formula for Ro

We have used simulations to develop our formula for Ro which is based on the daily rate of increase, r, for cases. For simulations using r = 1.4 and r = SQRT(2), for each simulation we generate 40 outbreaks using Excel and calculate statistics. Sample runs are included in this post. Our formula for Ro…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 4 ~ Is Ro 6 to 7.8 in early 2020?

For COVID-19 in early 2020, we have estimated Ro to be in the range 6 to 7.8. For the Delta variant we have estimated Ro to be in the range 9 to 12.7. Update. See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide We consider widening our range estimate for COVID-19…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 13 ~ Is the COVID-19 Delta variant as infectious as measles?

Experts think the COVID-19 Delta variant is much more contagious than the flu and chickenpox, and on par with the measles. See: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/cdc-says-delta-variant-as-infectious-as-chickenpox-what-to-know-now We have found that Ro for the Delta variant is between 9 and 12.7. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 9 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Is Ro in the range…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 3 ~ COVID-19 in 2020 vs 2021 ~ Cases per million people

We look at cases per million people for the 31 countries with over one million cases on 6 August 2021 and compare the results estimated for the daily rate of increase, r, estimated a year earlier on 6 August 2020. We have looked at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We…

## COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs ~ I got my second jab this morning!

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:

Get your jabs There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 2~ Be afraid, be very afraid of the Lambda variant

Be afraid, be very afraid of the Lambda variant. Strong likelihood of more dangerous COVID-19 variants – WHO. The eighth meeting of the Emergency Committee convened by the WHO Director-General under the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) regarding the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) took place on Wednesday, 14 July 2021 from 11:30 to 16:00 Geneva time…

## COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs

Get your jabs There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united…

## COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup ~ COVID-19 in 2020 vs 2021 ~ How many people may one person infect in your country?

We look again at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We look at case numbers up to 6 August 2020. As expected estimates for Re#2 (last column in the first table, calculated using our formula for Ro below), and hence Ro occurred very early in an outbreak in each country. Ro…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 12 ~ Conclusion~ Ro = 6 to 7.8 in early 2020?

We revisit data for the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. We see in China that a daily increase close to r~ 1.5 fits the case data well from 23 Jan to 28 January 2020. We have seen in New Zealand that a daily increase close to r~ 1.4 fits the case data well from…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 11 ~ COVID-19 ~ Daily decline in infectivity

We have assumed that case numbers increase at a daily rate of r and infectivity decreases daily at a rate of 1/r. This simplifies the formula. However it is possible that infectivity decreases daily at a different rate. Below is a graph showing various rates: Below is data for the graph. Note: values have been…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 10 ~ COVID-19 Delta variant ~ Conclusions 2021

The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to be twice as infectious as the original 2020 outbreak. We have found that Ro for the Delta variant is between 9 and 12.7. Ro is the average number of people once person may infect over a period of n = 10 days when there is no quarantine or…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 9 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Is Ro in the range 9 to 12.7?

The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to be twice as infectious as the original 2020 outbreak. for the 2020 outbreak we estimated Ro = 6. In previous posts we simulated outbreaks using a value for Ro around 12.7 (actually Ro = SQRT(3)). In this post we consider also Ro = 9 (halfway between 6 and…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 8 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Graphs

We look at graphs of the number of people that may be infected by one person having the Delta variant of COVID-19. The graphs are produced from our simulations for 1778 cases for Day 12 starting with 10 cases on Day 1 and using a daily increase of r = SQRT(3) with an infectious period…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 7 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Simulations

In the previous post we saw that for the Delta variant there could be a daily increase in the number of cases of r = SQRT(3). For background see: COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12? This would give rise to the table below: We see from…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for NZ in 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Note: The formula in this post…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 3 ~ Carpe diem 2020 ~ Estimating Ro by simulations

In early 2020 we calculated that there was a daily increase in cases of r = 1.4 and we assumed infectivity decreased by 1/r each day over n = 10 days. We created simulations to estimate Ro, the number of people a person with COVID-19 was likely to infect on average. How do we choose…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 2 ~ In early 2020 can one person infect 4 or 6 others on average?

Ro is the number of people that on average one person with COVID-19 may infect. Note: The formula in this post has been updated. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6 Early in 2020 we arrived at the following table…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…

## COVID Odyssey: China Odyssey ~ Comparing cases in China with New Zealand in 2020 ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:

In 2020, We found that in New Zealand given a a 10-day infectious period, and a daily increase in COVID-19 infections of r = 1.4, one person with COVID-19 may infect on average 4.14 other people and for a 15-day infectious…

## COVID Odyssey: Winter warning ~ Summary 2020 revisited ~ Daily cases and how many people one person may infect on average?

In 2020, We found that in New Zealand given a a 10-day infectious period, and a daily increase in COVID-19 infections of r = 1.4, one person with COVID-19 may infect on average 4.14 other people and for a 15-day infectious period, one infected person may infect around 6 other people. We extend our previous…

## COVID Odyssey: Borty’s First Jab

Borty’s First Jab Quite long in the tooth Certainly not in his youth Borty got the call for his jab He arrived at the place And then had to face A sight that he found rather sad The folks there were old Just like he’d been told But surely much older than he He was…

## COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs and let COVID die away

Let COVID die away [My Way] And now, the end is near And so I face the final curtain My friend, I’ll say it clear I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain I’ve lived a life that’s full I’ve traveled each and every highway Oh, and more, much more than this [Got my last…

## COVID Odyssey: The never-ending epic poem ~ B. McNabb lives to get the jab

B. McNabb lives to get the jab Forget what you may last have read Borty McNabb is not yet dead Forget what’s in the poem Borty is still at home Regardless what Alan has said Hope his fame won’t go to his head! He writes not like Ovid He won’t die of COVID What decisions…

## COVID Odyssey: My response to Borty’s poem ~ The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:

The Man Like A Dog With A Bone! There was once a fella called Grace Who worked at a furious pace, Using maths so darned hard And poems like a bard He inspired the whole human race With Covid running amok…

## COVID Odyssey: How many people may one person infect in early 2020? ~ The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!

The Man Like A Dog With A Bone! There was once a fella called Grace Who worked at a furious pace, Using maths so darned hard And poems like a bard He inspired the whole human race With Covid running amok And humans all running on luck Alan showed Ro Was double WHO thought And…

## COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~ Summary 2020 revisited ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Ro Will your search for R-Nought Still forever be fraught Will we still wonder It’ll be under ‘Til true value be sought Alan Grace 9 September 2020 In 2020, We found that for a 10-day infectious period, given a daily increase in COVID-19 infections of r = 1.4, one person with COVID-19 may infect on…

## COVID Odyssey: Misinformation Game ~ Avoid spreading false and misleading information

COVID misinformation It’s a shame for you to be the blame Spreading misinformation is lame Do not let lies spiral Or let them go viral Learn now to play the Go Viral Game Alan Grace 10 October 2020 ABOUT WHAT IS GO VIRAL! GO VIRAL! is a 5-minute game that helps protect you against COVID-19…

## COVID Odyssey: [Pre-]Summer Summary ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Ro Will your search for R-Nought Still forever be fraught Will we still wonder It’ll be under ‘Til true value be sought Alan Grace 9 September 2020 For COVID-19 we assume 5-day cycles with one cycle for the pre-symptomatic incubation period and a two-cycle (10-day) symptomatic infectious period. Also see: COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~…