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After four years looking at COVID-19 it is definitely time to stop!!! COVID Rabbit Hole I was caught down a rabbit hole It sought to take my mind and soul My sanity depended on Ending my fight with OMICRON I thought it might swallow me whole Alan Grace 2 April 2022 Warning: Don’t get caught…
Tag: Coronavirus
COVID-19~ 2020 outbreak~ Conclusions up to August 6 2020
We draw conclusions from our previous posts based on cases up to August 6 2020. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), Ro ~ exp(sr – s), and Ro ~ exp(tr – t) where Ro is the average number of people that one person with COVID-19 may…
COVID-19~ Should a weighted average be used to estimate r*?
We have used two ways to calculate r*, an estimate for r. We currently use the first (“Old”) method to estimate Ro for the early 2020 outbreak. The only difference is on the second line where the average is used in the top calculation a weighted average is used in the bottom calculation. Note that…
COVID-19~ Worldwide values for Ro in early 2020
We look at values for Ro worldwide in 2020 where Ro is the number of other people a person with COVID-19 may infect on average over a 10-day infectious period. We have looked at this post: COVID-19~ Better values for Ro We obtain this list: This PDF contains more countries: COVIDWorldwidet Shared Posts (Pingbacks)
COVID-19~ Better values for Ro
In this post we obtain better estimates for Ro by increasing our minimal estimates for Ro. We have already looked at minimal values for Ro based on our previous results and simulations: COVID-19~ Minimal values for Ro In the above post we looked at EXP(sr-s). We consider t = s*1.05 and look at EXP(tr-t). i.e….
COVID-19~ Minimal values for Ro
In this post we look at minimal values for Ro based on our previous results and simulations. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may…
COVID-19~ Is 9.75(r-1)^2+1 a good estimate for Ro?
In this post we consider if Ro = 9.75(r-1)^2+1 a good estimate for Ro. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may infect when there…
COVID-19 in 2020~ Extending using approximating polynomials for Ro
We extend our range for estimating Ro using another polynomial. We have already investigated if r^3 (r cubed) is a good estimate for Ro for COVID-19: COVID-19~ World-wide estimates. Is r^3 a good estimate for Ro? We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a…
COVID-19~ World-wide estimates. Is r^3 a good estimate for Ro?
We investigate if r^3 (r cubed) is a good estimate for Ro for COVID-19. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may infect when there…
COVID-19~ Worldwide estimates if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5)
We look at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may infect when there is no immunity in the community over a ten-day infectious period, and “exp” means “e to…
COVID-19~ Does Ro = exp(2.5r – 2.5)?
In this post we consider whether Ro = exp(2.5r – 2.5) is a good estimate for Ro where r is the daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. We consider this graph: We have already considered r^2.5 and r^(10/3) for various values of r. We add these to the graph: Below are the…
COVID-19~ refining our estimate for Ro
We have considered that Ro = 1.1r^2.5 provides a good estimate for Ro, where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak, and Ro is the average number of people that one person may infect when there is no immunity over a ten-day infectious period. We now consider if Ro =…
COVID-19 in 2020~ 1.1r^2.5 compared with literature meta-analyses
In this post we update our earlier results and compare our results with meta-analysis in the literature. In 2020 we developed a formula for Ro, the number of people one person may infect over a ten-day period when there is no immunity, based on the daily increase, r, in the number of cases of COVID-19….
COVID-19~Worldwide estimates for Ro in 2020
We se the results in our previous post to calculate worldwide estimates for Ro in 2020 using data up to mid-August 2020. We obtain the following table: For more countries see: COVIDWorldAllCasesCPMNZcorr Notes: The date and number of cases are when r* was calculated. The estimate for Ro is the value in penultimate (second to…
Covid-19~ Does 1.1r^2.5 provide a good estimate for Ro?
We consider whether for COVID-19, 1.1r^2.5 provides a good estimate for Ro, the number of people one person may infect when there is no natural immunity. We have already established that r^2.5 provides a good estimate for the effective reproduction rate Re, where r is the daily increase in case numbers. We want to estimate…
A range for Ro for COVID-19 early in 2020
In 2020 we developed a formula for Ro, the number of people one person may infect over a ten-day period when there is no immunity, based on the daily increase, r, in the number of cases of COVID-19. This year we considered that Ro = r^2.5 gave a better estimate for Ro. We obtain and…
NZ COVID-19 Polls
We look at two recent New Zealand COVID-19 polls. Both polls were posted on Neighbourly, a New Zealand suburb-based social media website. The first poll is ongoing nation-wide. The second poll is based around some suburbs in West Auckland. For all my COVID-19 posts see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ The following (interim) results occurred: With one more vote…
COVID-19 NZ~ Is no-isolation a dumb idea?
No Isolation No mask-wearing now the norm All so easy to perform No more isolation A bizarre creation Is this now the perfect storm? Alan Grace 16 August 2023 What may happen with COVID-19 spread within schools (and elsewhere) now there is no longer a mandatory isolation requirement when a student (or anyone else) becomes…
All COVID-19 requirements removed in NZ~ no more isolation & no masks required
Pandemic over We can never see how NZ can take the bow Get sick and cry Get well or die Pandemic’s over now? Alan Grace 15 August 2023 The NZ Government has announced that: All COVID-19 requirements removed 14 Aug 2023 Effective from 12:01am Tuesday 15 August, 7 day mandatory isolation, wearing of face masks…
COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ GIGO: New Zealand has moved up one position!
A duplication in our source data we obtained from an outside source has meant New Zealand has moved up one position in world rankings. GIGO means Garbage In Garbage Out. The new rankings are: Norway and New Zealand have changed positions. The last column ranks countries by r* our two-day average estimation for r. We…
COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ Computation of r and Re in Excel
In 2020 we looked at Case numbers of COVID-19 worldwide using data up to 6 August 2020. Data by country/region daily was in 28,800 rows in an Excel 2010 spreadsheet. We used initially this methodology to estimate daily increases, r, over five-day intervals: C and r are the case numbers and value for r (daily…
COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Re = r^2.5?
We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 worldwide for infectious diseases where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. We now consider that Re = r^2.5 where Re is the effective reproduction rate. In New Zealand in the initial COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak in 2020…
The rise in case numbers for infectious diseases
In this post we look at the potential rise in case numbers for major infectious diseases. In our last post we considered Ro = r^2.5 where Ro is the number of people one person may infect when there is no immunity and r is the rise in case numbers over a short period near the…
COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Ro = r^2.5?
We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. In New Zealand in the initial outbreak r = 1.4 and hence we estimate now that Ro = 1.4 ^ 2.5. See: COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ Is Ro…
COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ Is Ro close to r^2.5?
In this post we consider if Ro ~ r^2.5 In the past we have considered a decrease of 1/r each day where r is a daily increase early in an outbreak. We have also considered a daily decrease of a factor of x. We now combine both of these considerations. For background and definitions see…
COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ May Ro be at least r^2.5?
Given a daily increase of r early in an outbreak we consider if Ro is at least r^2.5. In our previous we obtained this graph: COVIDgraph1 We now add the graph of r^2.5 We see this light blue curve is close to the red curve. We consider that Ro is at least r^2.5. Ro may…
COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ How many people may one person infect on average?
We refine results from a formula we developed early in 2020 when COVID-19 (originally called Coronavirus) for estimating Ro, the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average when there is no immunity or isolation. The formula assumed that with a daily increase in infections of r, infections would decrease daily over…
Update 2: COVID-19 in NZ in Early 2020~ Does Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6?
Two years ago today on 7 July 2021 we looked back at our analysis of COVID-19 in NZ in early 2020 as the breakout occurred in New Zealand. In New Zealand we discovered than a daily increase of r = 1.4 fitted the New Zealand cases numbers well. First look at our 7 July 2021…
Update: COVID-19 in NZ in Early 2020~ Does Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6?
We update our last post. The results are not very different. First look at our 7 July 2021 post for definitions: Warning: In this post below we have used r^5 to estimate Re. We have decided this may not be a good idea. A link to an updated post is here: Update 2: COVID-19 in…
COVID-19 in NZ in Early 2020~ Does Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6?
Two years ago today on 7 July 2021 we looked back at our analysis of COVID-19 in NZ in early 2020 as the breakout occurred in New Zealand. In New Zealand we discovered than a daily increase of r = 1.4 fitted the New Zealand cases numbers well. First look at our 7 July 2021…
Jenny and I have just recuperated from COVID-19. PAXLOVID is great!
PAXLOVID is Great! We have just had COVID Thank God for PAXLOVID Near Xmas so sad Good we had no bad Symptoms heaven forbid Alan Grace 18 December 2023 Jenny and I have just recuperated from COVID-19. Just before Christmas! The first time for both of us. I had a sore throat for a couple…
COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning Omicron second wave~ Auckland cases in June 4.4x in one day~ NZ cases over 10,000 yesterday #PLAY
NZ new community cases topped 10,000 (10,290) yesterday (6 July) for the first time in months (since circa 21 April). See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10290-community-cases-522-hospitalisations-10-icu-12-deaths https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10294-community-cases-524-hospitalisations-14-icu-18-deaths https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13511-community-cases-30-deaths-past-two-days-500-hospitalisations-15-icu-today Update: on 8 July, instead of 13,334 new cases, there were actually 9,318 (over 4,200 less). See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/68319118 https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/nz-covid-19-case-numbers-corrected-9318 https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13344-community-cases-587-hospitalisations-9-icu-23-deaths On 27 June Auckland new community cases went up to 1,796…
COVID-19: When will NZ go Orange or Green? #Green#Newspaper
Traffic light green I’m not a mighty magician Or even a statistician When will NZ be seen With a traffic light green I’m a mere mathematician Alan Grace 11 April 2022 Update: NZ went to Orange at 11.59pm on Wednesday 13 April. New Zealand has now had 500 deaths with COVID-19. See: 7,592 community cases;…
Help me get out of this COVID Rabbit hole! #Green#Clarity#Swallow
COVID Rabbit Hole I was caught down a rabbit hole It sought to take my mind and soul My sanity depended on Ending my fight with OMICRON I thought it might swallow me whole Alan Grace 2 April 2022 Warning: Don’t get caught down a Rabbit hole! A flash of clarity! See: https://wordpress.com/dailypost/prompts/Clarity/ https://wordpress.com/dailypost/prompts/Swallow/ #Warning…
Tentative decisions; More T.S. Eliot
Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
Tentatively, you may like to try to solve some puzzles … see my competitions. NZ has a general election in progress. The Leader of the Labour Party, Jacinda Ardern, initially wanted to leave the decision about introducing…
COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum
COVID Odyssey Addendum Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb I feel like an April fool I have sealed my time capsule Before adding my addendum Alan Grace 26 March 2022 The Time Capsule embargo was lifted briefly on 30 March to include this addendum. Future posts can be…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 43 Post #970~ Website Lockdown Level 5 from 11.59pm on 25 March NZT~ Time Capsule: Changes embargoed forever
From 11.59 pm on 25 March 2022 changes to this website will be embargoed forever. My COVID Odyssey posts prior to April 2022 have now become an open time capsule. For older (pre-COVID) and any new posts please see: https://agrace.altervista.org/ https://covidodyssey.wordpress.com/ At 11.59 pm on 25 March 2020 New Zealand went into Lockdown Level 4. The COVID-19…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 42 Post #969~ Worldwide windup~ Verification of our formula for Ro
We verify our formula for Ro: For definitions and background please see the WELCOME menu. We also use the same formula to estimate Re. Re is the effective reproduction number when there is isolation. We assume that n =10 and that infectivity reduces by a factor of 1/r each day where r is the daily…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 41 Post #968~ Worldwide windup~ More simulations to confirm our formula
We confirm our estimates for Re and hence Ro worldwide. We have developed spreadsheets simulating the spread of COVID-19 based on a specific daily increase in case numbers (r). We extend our spreadsheet to utilise a range of values for r. As a result of the original simulations we have developed a formula for calculating…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?
Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159). We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called PI. On Pi Day (today) we think it may be appropriate to consider values for Ro for a…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected?
In a recent Poll on an NZ social media website we had these votes: Here is the full question: See:https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67463549 We assume that: There will be no Lockdowns. The dominant variant will be Omicron in the next six months. There will not be any significant improvement in vaccines in the next six months. We will…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 38 Post #965~ NZ COVID-19: Revised calculation for Ro
We modify the way we calculate Ro in three ways. We use the formula we have already developed to calculate Ro based on r, the daily increase in total case numbers. When r = 1.4 as in New Zealand early on in the first 2020 outbreak, r^2 = 1.96 which is close to 2. We…
Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey 