Hoppy Leap Day

Leap Day Leap days are for the sun New day’s not just for fun Each Leap year’s leap divine After Feb 29 Two days instead of one Alan Grace 29 February 2020 Enjoy your Lap Day workout! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap_year The term leap year probably comes from the fact that a fixed date in the Gregorian calendar…

Coronavirus deaths in China II. Is the final death toll going to be between 3200 and 3500?

We look at data to see if  the final death toll going to be between 3200 and 3500. Please see my previous post for the background: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/02/28/estimating-the-final-number-of-deaths-in-china-from-coronavirus-is-the-final-death-toll-going-to-be-less-than-3000-deaths/ Consider the following graph: The top lines on the graph are for almost 3500 deaths, actually 3443 or 3444. The bottom Logistic function is for 3200 deaths using…

Estimating the Final number of deaths in China from Coronavirus. Is the final death toll going to be less than 3000 deaths?

In another post we looked at using a logistic curve (S-Curve) to estimate the total number of deaths from Coronavirus in China. A scaled S-Curve appears suitable to approximate death data. Here is the curve again: In another post we also looked at using a quadratic function to fit the reported death data. Clearly the…

Coronavirus. An Acrostic.

Originally posted on Paintings and poetry.:
This curs-ed plague, that sweeps the earth Pushing fear before Plucking souls in random picks With constant greed for more There are empty streets in Bejing Milan is closing down The world is wearing face masks As God sends in the clowns Armageddon beckons Scream headlines in the mail…

Coronavirus: 80,000 cases in 40 countries/territories and 2700 deaths

There are currently 80,419 confirmed cases in 40 countries and territories and over 2700 deaths. See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ Corona travel Do you have a wish For a Petri Dish Floating or flying Poor people dying Coronavirish Alan Grace 26 February 2020 Alternative version: Corona travel Why seek your death wish Awful Petri Dish Floating or flying Poor…

Coronavirus Model 3 (Sigmoid curve). Can the Grand Total of deaths in China be less than 4,250?

We use a Sigmoid curve (Logistic function; “S” shape) to estimate the grand total number of deaths in China. Within 2 months from 22 January, we estimate the grand total may be less than 4,250 deaths. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function The standard graph looks like this: We notice that around 18-19 February (Days 27 & 28 from…

Is Chinese Coronavirus death data fake news? A quadratic fits well to the data

Many wonder about the accuracy of the Coronavirus data. We look at the number of deaths and find that a quadratic fits very well. Is this coincidence? Is it too good to be true? Coronavirus data can be found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries We plot the number of deaths below using the number of days since 22…

Will Coronavirus infections reach 800,000 in mid March and 100 million by the end of April???

Many people think the figures released by China for the spread of Coronavirus are low. I have developed a simple spreadsheet projecting the spread of Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Like others we assume the disease started spreading in mid November 2019. Also see my next post: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/02/19/are-chinese-coronavirus-deaths-fake-news-a-quadratic-fits-well-to-the-data/ We assume an incubation period of 6 days (stats suggest…