China on 9 March had 19 new cases of COVID-19 and 17 deaths, with still 4794 serious/critical cases. Looking back over the last 7 days, the projected number of deaths from these cases may be between 250 and 750 deaths (5%-14% of critical/serious cases) except for 5 March when the projection may extend out to possibly 900 deaths (over 17% of critical/serious cases).
Consequently the total number of deaths in China from this outbreak is likely to be less than 33,000 deaths. The actual number of deaths is currently 3136, less than 60 below our projected 3195 deaths. Apart from deaths from the existing serious/critical cases, the total number of deaths appears to be within our estimate.
The table below shows the countries with more than 500 cases today:
South Korea may only have a few more deaths to come outside of the existing serious/critical cases. The midpoint may be 2 March although 5 March is also a possibility.
The table below shows the deaths in China:
Time will tell what the final outcome will be.
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10 March 2020
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