Coronavirus Deaths in China: Estimating the midpoint and total number of deaths from the data

The four methods we have looked at for estimating the total number of deaths in China from Coronavirus all involve knowing the midpoint for the number of deaths. For my previous posts see:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

We have seen an S-Curve is appropriate for the total number of deaths.

We can look at the daily (cumulative) number of deaths and use the daily change to estimate the final total.

Where there is a single peak, we can just double the cumulative number of deaths for this day.

Where there are two consecutive numbers that form a peak, we can add together the cumulative number of deaths for both these days.

Personally I look at pairs so that single spikes are not considered a local maximum.

The result is an estimate of the final death toll assuming:

1. No new outbreak.
2. No significant re-infections.
3. The reported figures are accurate.

Below is the table of death data. The data comes from:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The red numbers are possible deaths totals we have considered in previous posts.

These totals can be done as each day.

The days are counted from 22 January 2020. i.e. Day #1 is 23 January 2020.

 Day# Date Total Deaths Daily Change Estimated Total Deaths 35 26 February 2020 2,801 38 34 25 February 2020 2,763 64 33 24 February 2020 2,699 81 32 23 February 2020 2,618 158 5,236 31 22 February 2020 2,460 100 30 21 February 2020 2,360 113 29 20 February 2020 2,247 121 28 19 February 2020 2,126 117 4,135 27 18 February 2020 2,009 136 4,018 26 17 February 2020 1,873 98 25 16 February 2020 1,775 106 3,444 24 15 February 2020 1,669 143 3,195 23 14 February 2020 1,526 143 2,909 22 13 February 2020 1,383 122 2,644 21 12 February 2020 1,261 146 2,522 20 11 February 2020 1,115 97

Where a single day is used for the total this day is the midpoint, and the number of days to reach the total is twice the number of days.

Where two days have been used, the midpoint is halfway between these two days, and the number of days to reach the total is twice this.

We are currently accepting 3195 (3200) as the likely death total in China.

For 3195 total deaths, the midpoint is 23.5 and the number of days to reach 3195 is therefore 47.

By the 22 February, we could have estimated from the table that the total number of deaths in China from Coronavirus was likely to be about 3200 or 4200 (or later 5200).

We conclude the total number of deaths is likely to be around 3200 deaths in China.

Alan Grace
1 March 2020

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