Coronavirus Deaths in China: Estimating the midpoint and total number of deaths from the data

The four methods we have looked at for estimating the total number of deaths in China from Coronavirus all involve knowing the midpoint for the number of deaths. For my previous posts see:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

We have seen an S-Curve is appropriate for the total number of deaths.

We can look at the daily (cumulative) number of deaths and use the daily change to estimate the final total.

Where there is a single peak, we can just double the cumulative number of deaths for this day.

Where there are two consecutive numbers that form a peak, we can add together the cumulative number of deaths for both these days.

Personally I look at pairs so that single spikes are not considered a local maximum.

The result is an estimate of the final death toll assuming:

1. No new outbreak.
2. No significant re-infections.
3. The reported figures are accurate.

Below is the table of death data. The data comes from:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The red numbers are possible deaths totals we have considered in previous posts.

These totals can be done as each day.

The days are counted from 22 January 2020. i.e. Day #1 is 23 January 2020.

Day#	Date	Total Deaths	Daily Change	Estimated Total Deaths
35	26 February 2020	2,801	38
34	25 February 2020	2,763	64
33	24 February 2020	2,699	81
32	23 February 2020	2,618	158	5,236
31	22 February 2020	2,460	100
30	21 February 2020	2,360	113
29	20 February 2020	2,247	121
28	19 February 2020	2,126	117	4,135
27	18 February 2020	2,009	136	4,018
26	17 February 2020	1,873	98
25	16 February 2020	1,775	106	3,444
24	15 February 2020	1,669	143	3,195
23	14 February 2020	1,526	143	2,909
22	13 February 2020	1,383	122	2,644
21	12 February 2020	1,261	146	2,522
20	11 February 2020	1,115	97

Where a single day is used for the total this day is the midpoint, and the number of days to reach the total is twice the number of days.

Where two days have been used, the midpoint is halfway between these two days, and the number of days to reach the total is twice this.

We are currently accepting 3195 (3200) as the likely death total in China.

For 3195 total deaths, the midpoint is 23.5 and the number of days to reach 3195 is therefore 47.

By the 22 February, we could have estimated from the table that the total number of deaths in China from Coronavirus was likely to be about 3200 or 4200 (or later 5200).

We conclude the total number of deaths is likely to be around 3200 deaths in China.

Alan Grace
1 March 2020

I share my posts here:
https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/