The four methods we have looked at for estimating the total number of deaths in China from Coronavirus all involve knowing the midpoint for the number of deaths. For my previous posts see:
We have seen an S-Curve is appropriate for the total number of deaths.
We can look at the daily (cumulative) number of deaths and use the daily change to estimate the final total.
Where there is a single peak, we can just double the cumulative number of deaths for this day.
Where there are two consecutive numbers that form a peak, we can add together the cumulative number of deaths for both these days.
Personally I look at pairs so that single spikes are not considered a local maximum.
The result is an estimate of the final death toll assuming:
- No new outbreak.
- No significant re-infections.
- The reported figures are accurate.
Below is the table of death data. The data comes from:
The red numbers are possible deaths totals we have considered in previous posts.
These totals can be done as each day.
The days are counted from 22 January 2020. i.e. Day #1 is 23 January 2020.
|Day#||Date||Total Deaths||Daily Change||
|35||26 February 2020||2,801||38|
|34||25 February 2020||2,763||64|
|33||24 February 2020||2,699||81|
|32||23 February 2020||2,618||158||5,236|
|31||22 February 2020||2,460||100|
|30||21 February 2020||2,360||113|
|29||20 February 2020||2,247||121|
|28||19 February 2020||2,126||117||4,135|
|27||18 February 2020||2,009||136||4,018|
|26||17 February 2020||1,873||98|
|25||16 February 2020||1,775||106||3,444|
|24||15 February 2020||1,669||143||3,195|
|23||14 February 2020||1,526||143||2,909|
|22||13 February 2020||1,383||122||2,644|
|21||12 February 2020||1,261||146||2,522|
|20||11 February 2020||1,115||97|
Where a single day is used for the total this day is the midpoint, and the number of days to reach the total is twice the number of days.
Where two days have been used, the midpoint is halfway between these two days, and the number of days to reach the total is twice this.
We are currently accepting 3195 (3200) as the likely death total in China.
For 3195 total deaths, the midpoint is 23.5 and the number of days to reach 3195 is therefore 47.
By the 22 February, we could have estimated from the table that the total number of deaths in China from Coronavirus was likely to be about 3200 or 4200 (or later 5200).
We conclude the total number of deaths is likely to be around 3200 deaths in China.
1 March 2020
I share my posts here: