COVID-19: Over 850,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. Will the number of deaths reach 150,000 in the next 3 weeks?

Flatten the curve

Humanity faces
Steep curve that high races
Do not COVID serve
Please flatten the curve
To two million cases

Alan Grace
22 March 2020
(updated 1 April)

Today just before 12.00 midday NZ time:

Coronavirus Cases: 854,608

Deaths:                        42,043

Recovered:                176,908

view by country

In the graph below, the top curve shows the anticipated number of deaths, projected in a previous post of mine.

In recent days the number of deaths has fallen below this curve.

I am not sure if the decrease is due to better lockdowns in countries.


In the next three weeks (up to day 90; 21 April), the graph below predicts 150,000 deaths.

This could mean the total number of cases rising to 3,000,000 cases in the next three weeks using the current factor of 20 (Cases = Deaths x 20).


Please note that extrapolating this far ahead is not reliable.

This is demonstrated by the top curve in the graphs.

We will follow up in a few days to see how accurately the number of deaths follows this curve.

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