Flatten the curve
Steep curve that high races
Do not COVID serve
Please flatten the curve
To two million cases
22 March 2020
(updated 1 April)
Today just before 12.00 midday NZ time:
Coronavirus Cases: 854,608
In the graph below, the top curve shows the anticipated number of deaths, projected in a previous post of mine.
In recent days the number of deaths has fallen below this curve.
I am not sure if the decrease is due to better lockdowns in countries.
In the next three weeks (up to day 90; 21 April), the graph below predicts 150,000 deaths.
This could mean the total number of cases rising to 3,000,000 cases in the next three weeks using the current factor of 20 (Cases = Deaths x 20).
Please note that extrapolating this far ahead is not reliable.
This is demonstrated by the top curve in the graphs.
We will follow up in a few days to see how accurately the number of deaths follows this curve.
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