COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?

Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159). We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called PI. On Pi Day (today) we think it may be appropriate to consider values for Ro for a…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected?

In a recent Poll on an NZ social media website we had these votes: Here is the full question: See:https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67463549 We assume that: There will be no Lockdowns. The dominant variant will be Omicron in the next six months. There will not be any significant improvement in vaccines in the next six months. We will…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 38 Post #965~ NZ COVID-19: Revised calculation for Ro

We modify the way we calculate Ro in three ways. We use the formula we have already developed to calculate Ro based on r, the daily increase in total case numbers. When r = 1.4 as in New Zealand early on in the first 2020 outbreak, r^2 = 1.96 which is close to 2. We…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases?

We conducted a poll on a suburb-based social media website. Here are the results: The full question is below: We consider that the best answer is 400,000 cases will be achieved in March. Lets call the options in the order above A, B, C, D, E, and F. Option A is the best answer. Score…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 35 Post #962~ NZ COVID-19: Total case numbers over 100,000

From early 2020 to 27 February total New Zealand COVID-19 case numbers have now exceeded 100,000 cases. On 17 February, the total was around 25,000 cases. The total cases numbers from 18 February (11 days) are triple the total announced up to 17 February from early 2020. Note: Each day reported cases numbers are currently…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 34 Post #961~ NZ OMICRON: A Tsunami of Long COVID?

See NZ Herald 28 Feb. Also see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles? Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 20 Post #947~ COVID-19 Omicron: Transmissibility~ Are 100 new cases possible ten days after infection?

Each Omicron case may mean 100 other new cases (even with isolation) on the tenth day after infection. Another 10 days later could mean 10,000 (100 x again) new cases on the last day. We could end up with a total of 240 cases on the tenth day after infection. Look at the table below….

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 19 Post #946~ COVID-19 Variants: New Ro estimates

We revise our chart for Ro estimates for COVID-19 variants. We obtain: For background see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 17 Post #944~ COVID-19: Calculating Ro based on Re Case numbers Welcome https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=new+year+fear Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 13 Post #940~ NZ COVID-19: An easier way to estimate Ro

In a previous post we used actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We found that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period. i.e. r = SQRT(3). To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 9 Post #936~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 25% to 30%+ higher than Re?

In this post we use case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro. This post has been superseded. For updates see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 10 Post #937~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 20% higher than Re? COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 11 Post…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 6 Post #933~ Omicron will be dominant variant in NZ community in 2 to 4 weeks

What community variant? What on earth letter are we onWhen will we next have OmicronDelta is now dominantOmicron soon prominentPerhaps rename it Omnicron? Alan Grace14 January 2022 We have only had one known case of community spread of Omicron in New Zealand. NZ Herald today (14 Jan) on P1: Should we rename Omicron, Omnicron? Below…

COVID Odyssey: Summer Surprise 2 ~ Post#924: NZ COVID-19~ OMICRON has reached NZ border

Yesterday Thursday 16 December it was officially announced at a televised media conference that the OMICRON variant has been detected at an MIQ facility in Christchurch. We extend our previous chart to include the OMICRON variant. The horizontal access shows potential values for Ro. For the previous chart see: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 6…