COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 43 Post #970~ Website Lockdown Level 5 from 11.59pm on 25 March NZT~ Time Capsule: Changes embargoed forever

From 11.59 pm on 25 March 2022 changes to this website will be embargoed forever. My COVID Odyssey posts prior to April 2022 have now become an open time capsule. For older (pre-COVID) and any new posts please see:  https://agrace.altervista.org/ https://covidodyssey.wordpress.com/ At 11.59 pm on 25 March 2020 New Zealand went into Lockdown Level  4. The COVID-19…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 42 Post #969~ Worldwide windup~ Verification of our formula for Ro

We verify our formula for Ro: For definitions and background please see the WELCOME menu. We also use the same formula to estimate Re. Re is the effective reproduction number when there is isolation. We assume that n =10 and that infectivity reduces by a factor of 1/r each day where r is the daily…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 41 Post #968~ Worldwide windup~ More simulations to confirm our formula

We confirm our estimates for Re and hence Ro worldwide. We have developed spreadsheets simulating the spread of COVID-19 based on a specific daily increase in case numbers (r). We extend our spreadsheet to utilise a range of values for r. As a result of the original simulations we have developed a formula for calculating…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?

Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159). We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called PI. On Pi Day (today) we think it may be appropriate to consider values for Ro for a…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected?

In a recent Poll on an NZ social media website we had these votes: Here is the full question: See:https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67463549 We assume that: There will be no Lockdowns. The dominant variant will be Omicron in the next six months. There will not be any significant improvement in vaccines in the next six months. We will…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 38 Post #965~ NZ COVID-19: Revised calculation for Ro

We modify the way we calculate Ro in three ways. We use the formula we have already developed to calculate Ro based on r, the daily increase in total case numbers. When r = 1.4 as in New Zealand early on in the first 2020 outbreak, r^2 = 1.96 which is close to 2. We…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 37 Post #964~ NZ COVID-19: Case number doubling time~ Rule of 72

We have conducted a poll to see how long it may take for case numbers to quadruple in New Zealand from 100,000 to 400,000. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases? To quadruple the numbers need to double twice. To quadruple in…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases?

We conducted a poll on a suburb-based social media website. Here are the results: The full question is below: We consider that the best answer is 400,000 cases will be achieved in March. Lets call the options in the order above A, B, C, D, E, and F. Option A is the best answer. Score…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 35 Post #962~ NZ COVID-19: Total case numbers over 100,000

From early 2020 to 27 February total New Zealand COVID-19 case numbers have now exceeded 100,000 cases. On 17 February, the total was around 25,000 cases. The total cases numbers from 18 February (11 days) are triple the total announced up to 17 February from early 2020. Note: Each day reported cases numbers are currently…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 34 Post #961~ NZ OMICRON: A Tsunami of Long COVID?

See NZ Herald 28 Feb. Also see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles? Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles?

We re-evaluate our range estimate for Ro for Omicron in New Zealand. Over a three day period, the number of new cases of COVID-19 almost doubled each day. We calculated a daily increase of r = 1.908667. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 32 Post #959~ NZ COVID-19: 12,011 community cases yesterday~ When will…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 32 Post #959~ NZ COVID-19: 12,011 community cases yesterday~ When will the curve flatten?

New Normal? 12,000 more community cases Steeply upwards the total races 5 deaths yesterday too This is not just the flu A future bleak peak the country faces Alan Grace 26 February 2022 Yesterday New Zealand reached over 50,000 cases since early 2020. On 25/2 there were 12,011 community cases. Who would have thought cases…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 31 Post #958~ NZ COVID-19: 2,846 community cases today~ Be Safe ~ Today’s date can be an Ambigram

2,846 community cases of COVID-19 in NZ today (22 February 2022). See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/more-27000-boosters-administered-2846-community-cases-covid-19-143-hospital 22 February 2022 is a palindrome and an ambigram in NZ, UK,  . . . (not in US). (turn the above image upside down) You can also miss out the zeros. Then Tuesday 22/2/22 really becomes Twosday. Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 30 Post #957~ NZ COVID-19 ~ 10,000 new daily community cases in a week’s time?

NZ Herald today (21 February): This means that option A in my poll is becoming more likely. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 28 Post #955~ NZ COVID-19 Poll results~ When will total case numbers double to 50,000 cases? COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 29 Post #956~ NZ COVID-19 ~ More new community…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 29 Post #956~ NZ COVID-19 ~ More new community cases announced today than for all of 2020

2,522 new community cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand have just been announced today. See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/rapid-antigen-testing-auckland-2522-community-cases-covid-19-100-hospital This is more than the total number of cases (2,162) in 2020 in New Zealand. See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/ This makes it more likely that we may reach 50,000 cases by the end of February. We still think a total of…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 28 Post #955~ NZ COVID-19 Poll results~ When will total case numbers double to 50,000 cases?

The total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand has now exceeded 25,000 cases. How soon do you think this number will double to 50,000? Which choice is the best answer below? See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2022/02/18/covid-odyssey-nz-new-year-fear-24-post-951-nz-covid-19-new-community-cases-yesterday-more-than-total-in-first-2020-outbreak/ The above question was asked in an NZ social media Poll in Neighbourly. Responses could be made by members of Neighbourly…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 27 Post #954~ NZ COVID-19 ~ If the total number of cases increase by r daily then new cases also increase by r

If the total number of cases increase by a factor of r daily then new cases also increase by r. This may not be obvious to everyone. So we will prove it. Below are case numbers for the early 2020 outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand. We see that a daily increase of r =…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 26 Post #953~ NZ COVID-19 ~ New community cases yesterday more than total in first 2020 outbreak

Yesterday (18 February) in New Zealand 1,573 new community cases of COVID-19 were announced. See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/more-40000-boosters-administered-hutt-valley-reaches-90-fully-vaccinated-maori-1573-community-cases This is more than the total number of cases (circa 1,504) in the first 2020 outbreak in new Zealand. When will we have in New Zealand in one day more community cases than the total number of cases in…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 25 Post #952~ COVID-19 NZ~ Calculating Re over two cycles using Goal Seek

We want to estimate Re and hence Ro and COVID-19 spread when the period of infection is over two five day cycles. We have weights w1 for Cycle 1 and w2 for Cycle 2 where w1 + w2 = 1 or w2 = 1 – w1. Let C be the number of new cases in…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 24 Post #951~ COVID-19 NZ: COVID-19 spread using two cycles and Goal Seek

We want to estimate Ro and COVID-19 spread when the period of infection is over two five day cycles. We have weights w1 for Cycle 1 and w2 for Cycle 2 where w1 + w2 = 1 or w2 = 1 – w1. In the example below, we use 60% of new case numbers in…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 23 Post #950~ COVID-19 simulation~ Table: COVID-19 spread using a formula

We have developed in the previous post a formula to use instead of using Goal Seek in Excel. Our formula when r = 1.4 (daily increase in case numbers of 1.4) is: R = SQRT( (10 x 1.4^10)/10 – 3/4 ) – 1/2 See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 22 Post #949~ COVID-19 simulation:…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 22 Post #949~ COVID-19 simulation: COVID-19 spread using a formula instead of Goal Seek

We develop the previous post and create a formula to use instead of using Goal Seek in Excel. Our formula when r = 1.4 (daily increase in case numbers of 1.4) is: R = SQRT( (10 x 1.4^10)/10 – 3/4 ) – 1/2 In February 2020 we looked at the animation below. if 5 people with…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 21 Post #948~ COVID-19 simulation: COVID-19 spread with Excel Goal Seek

In February 2020 we looked at the animation below. if 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others, then 5 people could be sick after 1 Cycle, 18 people after 2 Cycles, 52 people after 3 Cycles and so on. : See: https://towardsdatascience.com/how-bad-will-the-coronavirus-outbreak-get-predicting-the-outbreak-figures-f0b8e8b61991 We create this table (see Total infected): We use a five day…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 20 Post #947~ COVID-19 Omicron: Transmissibility~ Are 100 new cases possible ten days after infection?

Each Omicron case may mean 100 other new cases (even with isolation) on the tenth day after infection. Another 10 days later could mean 10,000 (100 x again) new cases on the last day. We could end up with a total of 240 cases on the tenth day after infection. Look at the table below….

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 19 Post #946~ COVID-19 Variants: New Ro estimates

We revise our chart for Ro estimates for COVID-19 variants. We obtain: For background see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 17 Post #944~ COVID-19: Calculating Ro based on Re Case numbers Welcome https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=new+year+fear Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 18 Post #945~ COVID-19: Verifying ranges for Ro

We use the table developed in our previous posts to verify ranges for Ro for a number of variants. We have developed this chart: Updates see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles? COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 19 Post #946~ COVID-19 Variants:…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 17 Post #944~ COVID-19: Calculating Ro based on Re Case numbers

We look at formulae for calculating Ro based on Re case numbers. See image below. For background see the bottom of this post. Let To[i] be the total number of case numbers for Day i without isolation (i = 1 to 10). Co[i] be the number of cases for Day i without isolation. ro be…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 16 Post #943~ COVID-19: Using goal seek to estimate Case numbers

We look at estimating the spread of COVID-19 with isolation given a value for Ro without isolation. Many simulations/modelling will estimate Ro. We need to estimate Re and the corresponding value for r (the daily increase). In the previous post we extended a table to estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 15 Post #942~ COVID-19: Estimating Case numbers

In the previous post we created a table to estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), by estimating (projecting) the number of people each case may infect if the case had not been isolated. We extend the table. We look at the case numbers…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 14 Post #941~ COVID-19: A table comparing Ro and Re

For update see the WELCOME menu. We have estimated Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), by estimating (projecting) the number of people each case may infect if the case had not been isolated. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=new+year+fear We find that on day 10 for r =…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 13 Post #940~ NZ COVID-19: An easier way to estimate Ro

In a previous post we used actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We found that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period. i.e. r = SQRT(3). To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 12 Post #939~ NZ COVID-19: When may case numbers double in 2 days?

In this post we revisit theoretical case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro. We estimate when case numbers may double every two days if there is no isolation. Case numbers will double every two days when there is a consistent daily increase in case numbers of…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 11 Post #938~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 30% higher than Re?

In this post we revisit theoretical case numbers for the OMICRON COVID-19 variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We assume a daily increase in case numbers of r = SQRT(3) without isolation and calculate what value of r will produce this result with isolation. We use Goal Seek in Excel to find that r…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 10 Post #937~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 20% higher than Re?

In this post we revisit theoretical case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro. We found that case numbers may potentially double in a two-day period. In the previous post we used actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We found…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 9 Post #936~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 25% to 30%+ higher than Re?

In this post we use case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro. This post has been superseded. For updates see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 10 Post #937~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 20% higher than Re? COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 11 Post…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 8 Post #935~ NZ Omicron: Estimating Ro

We use actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We find that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period. For update see:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2022/02/01/covid-odyssey-nz-new-year-fear-11-post-938-nz-covid-19-can-ro-be-30-higher-than-re/ To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we need to estimate (project) the…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 7 Post #934~ NZ Red: 10 cases of Omicron in Community ~ Is wedding or funeral a super-spreader event?

A group from Motueka who flew to Auckland from New Plymouth on 13 January have tested positive for the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and it’s not known how they caught it. The group attended a wedding, a funeral, an amusement park, the Sky Tower, and passed Omicron on to an Air NZ crew member who…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 6 Post #933~ Omicron will be dominant variant in NZ community in 2 to 4 weeks

What community variant? What on earth letter are we onWhen will we next have OmicronDelta is now dominantOmicron soon prominentPerhaps rename it Omnicron? Alan Grace14 January 2022 We have only had one known case of community spread of Omicron in New Zealand. NZ Herald today (14 Jan) on P1: Should we rename Omicron, Omnicron? Below…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 5 Post #932~ NZ Delta unvaccinated vs fully vaccinated cases: 20x more likely to be in hospital; 3.5x number of cases

We look at data from the current Delta outbreak in New Zealand. We find that the likelihood of fully vaccinated to be hospitalised is less than 5% of the likelihood of unvaccinated being hospitalised. We find that Covid cases in NZ are 3.5 times more likely to be unvaccinated than vaccinated. We first note this…

COVID Odyssey~ NZ New Year Fear 4 Post #931~ NZ Hospitalisations: Almost 75% from [20%] unvaxxed; 7% from fully vaxxed

We look at the difference Vaccination makes to hospitalisations in New Zealand during the current Delta outbreak. New Zealand has an ongoing Delta outbreak that started around 16 August 2021. Below are hospitalisation details up to 11.59pm on 5 January 2022: The first three columns can be found at: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics 20% of New Zealand residents…

COVID Odyssey: New Year Fear 3 ~ Post #930 World vs NZ Vaccinations: 80% first dose; 77% full

New Zealand vaccinations are below. We also make worldwide comparisons. Almost 20% (around one million people; mainly children under 12?) of the total NZ population have no COVID-19 vaccination (mainly Pfizer) yet. At least around 92% of the eligible population is fully vaccinated. See: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data For worldwide vaccination levels (earlier date; ranked by fully vaccinated)…

COVID Odyssey: New Year Fear 2 ~ Post #929: We got our booster shot today

Stop COVID There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united Against…