COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives

Death number I always wondered
US COVID may have plundered
Months from now could we count the cost
How many thousand would be lost
Two hundred if Trump has blundered

Alan Grace
10 May 2020

Alan Grace
10 May 2020

In this post we extend the work of the previous post to estimate the total number of deaths in the USA. See:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/09/covid-19-usa-could-the-total-number-of-confirmed-cases-exceed-3-million/

Below are some estimates for 30 May from:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?

DeathUSAMay

First we need to estimate the Death/Mortality rate.

This is unknown at present.

It is tempting to use

Total Number of Deaths
Total Number of Cases

However many deaths have yet to occur for a given day and many of the deaths resulted from new cases identified several days ago.

Therefore we shall call the above the death ratio.

Note: The death ratio changes daily. The death rate may change throughout the outbreak.

It is only once the outbreak is over that

Death rate = Death ratio.

To estimate the Death rate, it is tempting to use

Total Number of Deaths                          
Total Number of Cases [N days ago]

where N is up to 7. i.e. 7 Days ago.

Using data from 8 May, this gives us a Death/Mortality rate between 0.06 to 0.07
(i.e. 6% to 7%).

From  the data generated in the previous post below are estimates to the end of May:

Date Day Death Rate .06 Death Rate .07 Death Average
06/05/20 107 72,440.1 84,513.4 78,476.8
07/05/20 108 74,020.3 86,357.0 80,188.6
08/05/20 109 75,590.9 88,189.4 81,890.2
09/05/20 110 77,152.1 90,010.7 83,581.4
10/05/20 111 78,703.7 91,821.0 85,262.3
11/05/20 112 80,245.8 93,620.1 86,932.9
12/05/20 113 81,778.4 95,408.1 88,593.2
13/05/20 114 83,301.4 97,185.0 90,243.2
14/05/20 115 84,815.0 98,950.8 91,882.9
15/05/20 116 86,319.0 100,705.5 93,512.3
16/05/20 117 87,813.5 102,449.1 95,131.3
17/05/20 118 89,298.5 104,181.6 96,740.1
18/05/20 119 90,774.0 105,903.0 98,338.5
19/05/20 120 92,240.0 107,613.3 99,926.6
20/05/20 121 93,696.4 109,312.5 101,504.4
21/05/20 122 95,143.3 111,000.6 103,071.9
22/05/20 123 96,580.7 112,677.5 104,629.1
23/05/20 124 98,008.6 114,343.4 106,176.0
24/05/20 125 99,427.0 115,998.2 107,712.6
25/05/20 126 100,835.9 117,641.8 109,238.9
26/05/20 127 102,235.2 119,274.4 110,754.8
27/05/20 128 103,625.0 120,895.9 112,260.5
28/05/20 129 105,005.3 122,506.2 113,755.8
29/05/20 130 106,376.1 124,105.5 115,240.8
30/05/20 131 107,737.4 125,693.6 116,715.5
31/05/20 132 109,089.2 127,270.7 118,179.9

The second to last row in the table is for 30 May.

We see that the range in the third and fifth column 107,700 – 116,700 (Average) is within the ranges at the top of this post. i.e.

DeathUSAMay

This makes sense since the Mortality rate is most likely to be near the lower end of the much range. i.e. not very likely to be more than the middle of the bottom two lines (6.25%), and more likely to be around 6.125%.

However, even the higher range for 30 May (third and fourth columns in the table) of 107,700 – 125,700 is within half of the ranges.

Below is a graph of the results:

USADeathsMay

For our initial estimate, we estimate the number of deaths on 30 May to be in the middle of the range 107,700 – 116,700. e.g. 112,000 (rounded; close to 6.25%).

However, since the deaths on 8 May according to John Hopkins University (77,180) are slightly over 2% (2.1%) above our estimate, we take as our second estimate for 30 May 2% above 107,737 which is 109,892 which we round to 110,000.

We note that 2.1% above 6% is around 6.126%.

We have considered 7%, 6.5%, 6.25%, 6.125%, and 6% as the Death ratio/ Death rate.

We adopt 6.125% as the Death ratio since this is about 2.1% above 6%.

We get the result 109,982 which once again we round to 110,000.

We take 110,000 as our final estimate for the total number of deaths up to 30 May (1000 less than the MIT estimate and the same as the IHME estimate).

Extending the results, the lower estimate in the range for the eventual (final) total  number of deaths in the USA with a Death rate of 6% is over 200,000 (approximately 204,400 deaths).

This assumes new cases continuing until 20 October.

My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

Data for my posts can be found at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?

I share my posts at:
https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

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