COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 33 ~ Post#916: NZ Delta COVID-19~ Hendy’s worst case scenario: 7,000 deaths a year

We look at Professor Shaun Hendy’s modelling (23 September, 2021) for worst-case scenarios in New Zealand for COVID-19 spread over a twelve-month period. See: modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy-for-aotearoa-new-zealand [Modelling to support a future COVID-19 strategy for Aotearoa New Zealand] New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 Covid-19 deaths…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 28 ~ Post#911: NZ COVID-19~ Anti-vaxxers

The anti-vaxxer There once was an anti-vaxxer “Silly Tim” Who thought that the virus ought not to kill him We pray the family Will still remain healthy A thousand cases in 8 days may chill him Alan Grace 11 November 2021 COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 25 ~ Post#908: NZ COVID-19~ Over 1,000 confirmed cases in 8…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 27 ~ Post#910: Mexico COVID-19 2020~ Deaths: Sex, Age, & Health Conditions

We look at this article: Mortality Rate of Patients With COVID-19 Based on Underlying Health Conditions: COVIDMortalityS1935789321001397a Are you surprised by the second sentence in the Conclusions? Excerpts from the article: Conclusions We observed that COVID-19 patients with underlying diseases, male patients, and those above 41 y have an increased risk of death. Particularly, age…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 24 ~ Post#907: NZ COVID 2021 ~ How many Maori & Antivaxxers will change their minds?

Maori and Antivaxxers Maori mainly resistant Antivax nonexistent Others are hesitant Really target distant NZ must be persistent Alan Grace 5 November 2021 How many Maori & Antivaxxers will change their minds? Retrieved 6 November from: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 22 ~ Post#905: NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations ~ Will Maori vaccination levels mean Auckland…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 22 ~ Post#905: NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations ~ Will Maori vaccination levels mean Auckland COVID/boundary restrictions will stay until 2022?

Maori Second doses of the Pfizer vaccine in New Zealand was 50% or less (over 12) in these DHBs (District health Boards) yesterday (4 November): Northland Lakes Bay of Plenty Taranaki Hawkes Bay https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations Also see: Today’s New Zealand Herald Friday 5 November 2021: https://genius.com/Dr-seuss-how-the-grinch-stole-christmas-annotated COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 24 ~ Post#907: NZ COVID…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 14 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

Last week New Zealand introduced a Traffic-Light system to be introduced at the end of November if Auckland (Auckland’s three District health Boards) hopefully has 90% of its population fully vaccinated. See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/300436587/covid19-nz-how-the-traffic-light-system-will-work-and-what-new-zealand-needs-to-do-to-reach-it At the end of September, 38% were fully vaccinated. We look at possible vaccination target scenarios to achieve the 90% goal. This…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

We will discuss poll 4: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67051043 Here are the poll results: We believe the best choice is: The curve corresponding to 1.60. Below is a modified graph with extra vertical gridlines added to show quarter-months intervals (approximately 7.5-day intervals) The PDF below may be easier to read: COVID38Dec90 The graph was produced from these…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…