COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 39 ~ Post#922: NZ Delta COVID-19~ Scanning printed NZ Vaccine Passports a big fail

My attempts to scan two printed Vaccine Passports using the NZ Pass Verifier App have been a big fail. Have you been able to scan your own printed Vaccine Passport? Imagine trying to scan a large number of printed Vaccine Passports at a big event. The resolution of the QR code is not sufficient to…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 38 ~ Post#921: NZ Delta COVID-19~ NZ Pass Verifier App for Vaccine Passports

Have you managed to use the NZ Pass Verifier App? NZ Pass Verifier is the Ministry of Health’s official app for scanning and verifying COVID-19 Vaccine Passes. I hope the use of the NZ Pass Verifier App for Vaccine Passports works better for you than it did for me. I downloaded the App today for…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 37 ~ Post#920: NZ Delta COVID-19~ NZ Vaccine Passports

Should businesses and clubs in New Zealand require people to show Vaccine Passports before entry? On 21 November, New Zealand still ranked 35th in the world in terms of vaccination rates (for the whole population; see below). The NZ Government confirmed yesterday that NZ will transfer to a Traffic Light System on 2 December and…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 36 ~ Post#919: Mum: Yesterday, Today, Forever~ We will remember you

Sadly mum passed away over a month ago on 20 October, 95 years young. Fortunately she did not have COVID. Due to Auckland’s Lockdown level and border restrictions around Auckland, we could not have a service. Yesterday, Today, Forever (Brunfelsia) was one of her favourite plants. We will always remember you mum. Mum had dementia…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 35 ~ Post#918: NZ Delta COVID-19~ Two COVID poems

COVID A COVID darkness swallows me whole squashing my air out taking its toll All that I want is my breath regained to run and to laugh no longer restrained The lost not forgotten never truly gone in some shape or form in spirit hang on But the COVID sleep has no warming charm for…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 34 ~ Post#917: NZ Delta COVID-19~ Are Word Clouds harmful?

Are Word Clouds harmful? See: Word clouds considered harmful From the above website ‘Word Clouds first originated online in the 1990s as tag clouds (famously described as “the mullets of the Internet“).’

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 33 ~ Post#916: NZ Delta COVID-19~ Hendy’s worst case scenario: 7,000 deaths a year

We look at Professor Shaun Hendy’s modelling (23 September, 2021) for worst-case scenarios in New Zealand for COVID-19 spread over a twelve-month period. See: modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy-for-aotearoa-new-zealand [Modelling to support a future COVID-19 strategy for Aotearoa New Zealand] New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 Covid-19 deaths…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 32 ~ Post#915: NZ Delta COVID-19~ The Disinformation project

We draw your attention to the Disinformation project. Since February 2020 a small interdisciplinary team, The Disinformation Project, has been observing and analysing open source, publicly available data related to Covid-19 mis- and disinformation on social media, mainstream media, and in physical and other digital forms of information and knowledge dissemination. Since 17 August 2021,…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 31 ~ Post#914: NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 6 results~ Infections in NZ community

We look at the results for Poll 6:   We assume that the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) in NZ is 0.1%. See: COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 30 ~ Post#913: World COVID-19~ People infected ten times number of cases? We look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and adjust the percentage so that the IFR…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 30 ~ Post#913: World COVID-19~ People infected ten times number of cases?

Excerpts from a recent social media post: It is important to understand the difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). IFR is the figure we need to focus on. A comprehensive Stanford University study showed that, across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 IFR was 0.2%. This shows very clearly that the…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 29 ~ Post#912: NZ COVID-19~ PANDA: Is NZ Death% twice world IFR? Nope!

In New Zealand up to 12 November, we have been very lucky with only 33 deaths and less than 8,000 (7945) confirmed cases of COVID-19. This is an CFR (see below) of just over 0.415% (33/7945 ~ 0.004153). PANDA says According to the World Health Organisation, the mean infection fatality rate (“IFR”) for COVID-19 is less than…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 28 ~ Post#911: NZ COVID-19~ Anti-vaxxers

The anti-vaxxer There once was an anti-vaxxer “Silly Tim” Who thought that the virus ought not to kill him We pray the family Will still remain healthy A thousand cases in 8 days may chill him Alan Grace 11 November 2021 COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 25 ~ Post#908: NZ COVID-19~ Over 1,000 confirmed cases in 8…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 27 ~ Post#910: Mexico COVID-19 2020~ Deaths: Sex, Age, & Health Conditions

We look at this article: Mortality Rate of Patients With COVID-19 Based on Underlying Health Conditions: COVIDMortalityS1935789321001397a Are you surprised by the second sentence in the Conclusions? Excerpts from the article: Conclusions We observed that COVID-19 patients with underlying diseases, male patients, and those above 41 y have an increased risk of death. Particularly, age…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 26 ~ Post#909: NZ COVID-19~ World vaccination levels & cases

We compare New Zealand Vaccination levels with other countries on 8 November. For update see: COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 37 ~ Post#920: NZ Delta COVID-19~ NZ Vaccine Passports Vaccination Level by NZ DHB (District Health Board): Auckland’s three DHBs are Waitemata, Auckland, and Counties Manukau. All three DHBs should reach 90% fully vaccinated (over…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 25 ~ Post#908: NZ COVID-19~ Over 1,000 confirmed cases in 8 days; Be very afraid of Delta

We look at COVID-19 case numbers in New Zealand, in particular since 31 October. The first positive case of COVID-19 in the current (Delta) outbreak was identified in the community on 17 August 2021. Our total number of confirmed cases was 2,570. These cases occurred over 17.5 months (the first case was on 28 February…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 24 ~ Post#907: NZ COVID 2021 ~ How many Maori & Antivaxxers will change their minds?

Maori and Antivaxxers Maori mainly resistant Antivax nonexistent Others are hesitant Really target distant NZ must be persistent Alan Grace 5 November 2021 How many Maori & Antivaxxers will change their minds? Retrieved 6 November from: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 22 ~ Post#905: NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations ~ Will Maori vaccination levels mean Auckland…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 23 ~ Post#906: France COVID 2020 ~ COVID Deaths: 100 x more likely to die at 85 than at 45

We look at the age-related findings in this article for COVID-19 in France in the first half of 2020: Semenzato et al (2021) Findings: In a population of 66,050,090 people, 87,809 people (134 per 100,000) were hospitalized for COVID-19 between February 15, 2020 and June 15, 2020 and a subgroup of 15,661 people (24 per…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 22 ~ Post#905: NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations ~ Will Maori vaccination levels mean Auckland COVID/boundary restrictions will stay until 2022?

Maori Second doses of the Pfizer vaccine in New Zealand was 50% or less (over 12) in these DHBs (District health Boards) yesterday (4 November): Northland Lakes Bay of Plenty Taranaki Hawkes Bay https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations Also see: Today’s New Zealand Herald Friday 5 November 2021: https://genius.com/Dr-seuss-how-the-grinch-stole-christmas-annotated COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 24 ~ Post#907: NZ COVID…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 21 ~ Post#904: NZ COVID-19 Delta ~ 34% Not double jabbed: COVID 24x more likely; Hospitalisation 2.32x

We look at the effect vaccination has on cases of Delta in New Zealand. When 66% (about two-thirds) of NZ (over 12) had two doses of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on 14 October 2021, a person who is not double-jabbed is 24 times more likely to be a case and a case is 2.32 times more…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 20 ~ Post#903: NZ COVID-19 Delta~ Can NZ expect 1,000+ cases a day in a worst-case scenario?

We look at more worst-case scenarios in New Zealand for the current Delta outbreak. Increased vaccination levels has not appeared to produce a significant drop in daily cases numbers. However very few hospitalisations are fully-vaccinated. Over 75% of New Zealand’s population (over 12) has received a second dose of vaccine and is or will be…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 19 ~ Post#902: NZ COVID-19 Delta~ New calculation method for worst case scenarios

We introduce a modified method to calculate a worst case scenario for Auckland and New Zealand. Our expected dramatic drop in cases has not occurred as Auckland in particular gets a significant number of its population (over 12) fully-vaccinated. We obtain a worst-case Auckland figure (66,702 cases) and a yearly worst-case total for New Zealand…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 18 ~ Post#901: Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta~ Update to Poll 2

Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a treat PM Big Sister Cindy In safe city so windy In Premier House grand Traps banned COVID Auckland Tracks us and throws a shindy Alan Grace 31 October 2021 The dramatic decrease expected in case numbers as more of New Zealand becomes double-jabbed has not occurred. On Saturday we…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 17 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta~ Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a treat!

Halloween Poems Poem One & Poem Two: Delta Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a treat In the city so windy PM Big Sister Cindy Stays in the house grand Strays COVID Auckland [Traps][Tracks]* us and throws a shindy Alan Grace 31 October 2021 * Choose one Poem Three: Delta Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 16 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta Variant~ Vaccinations to 90% by DHB

To change to a traffic light system, Auckland’s three DHBs (District Health Boards) must all reach 90% of the population (over 12) fully vaccinated. Below are the current figures, probably for Wednesday 27 October. First/second doses % are the number of first/second doses administered divided by the eligible population. First/second doses to 90% are the…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 15 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 5 results~ Best targets for 90% fully vaccinated by the end of November

The anti-vaxxer An unjabbed golfer named Marty An anti-vaxxer not smarty Marty played golf for fun Prayed for a hole in one Two small holes in one arm Could have prevented harm COVID delayed his wake party Alan Grace 26 October 2021 We look at the results for Poll 5: The graph in this PDF…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 14 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

Last week New Zealand introduced a Traffic-Light system to be introduced at the end of November if Auckland (Auckland’s three District health Boards) hopefully has 90% of its population fully vaccinated. See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/300436587/covid19-nz-how-the-traffic-light-system-will-work-and-what-new-zealand-needs-to-do-to-reach-it At the end of September, 38% were fully vaccinated. We look at possible vaccination target scenarios to achieve the 90% goal. This…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 13 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We present an alternative way of producing vaccination targets by starting with an initial target of 40% instead of 38%. This time, for the top and bottom values for f, we compare the curves for 38% and 40%. We obtain the following tables: Notes: September means at the end of September,  . . . Look…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 12 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We present an alternative way of producing vaccination targets by starting with an initial target of 40% instead of 38%. We obtain the following tables: Notes: September means at the end of September,  . . . Look at the bottom line in the tables. The graph becomes (look at the top/highest curve): The PDF below…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 11 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta variant over 2000 cases ~ When will we achieve 90% full vaccination?

Damn Auckland For 90% vaccination Auckland’s ransom creates frustration Is this believable Or sure achievable We need more freedom not damnation Alan Grace 19 October 2021 94 Delta cases today (Tuesday 19 October); total 2,099 cases. This is the highest daily number of cases New Zealand has ever had. See: COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 10 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta variant~ 1895 cases in 2 months

We now have had 1895 cases in the last two months since the beginning of this outbreak. Tomorrow the number of cases will exceed 1900. The PDF version will be easier to read: NZCasesDeltaZ90u Tomorrow we will have over 1900 cases. Last year in the first outbreak we had 1504 cases. The first 1472 cases…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

We will discuss poll 4: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67051043 Here are the poll results: We believe the best choice is: The curve corresponding to 1.60. Below is a modified graph with extra vertical gridlines added to show quarter-months intervals (approximately 7.5-day intervals) The PDF below may be easier to read: COVID38Dec90 The graph was produced from these…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 8 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ Can New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated by year end?

We first assume that New Zealand could have 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. We are not saying that this may be possible but look at some targets that may need to be reached if 90% full vaccination is achievable. At the end of September (Month 1) New…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 7 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 3 results~ When will New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated?

We will discuss poll 3: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67022662 Here are the poll results: I believe the best choice is: 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated is not possible by February. First look at: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible? COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We need to have a way of measuring if the progress of the percentage of fully vaccinated people may be sufficient to achieve a target of 80% or 90% fully vaccinated within a desired timeframe, say the end of the year or at the end of February. We suggest the calculations based on v(f –…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 5 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2 results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 We will show that the most suitable response for Poll 2 (see below) is 24,000 Cases. For the updated best reponse see: COVID Odyssey:…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 4 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Outbreak 2021~ What can we learn from the data?

We look again at the data for the current Delta variant outbreak in New Zealand. Also see this version: NZCasesDeltaRollingM1 Below is a zoomed in snapshot of the above: The figures in the first column (except the last two) are a rolling 30-day total. We have a number of days when the total was around…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 3 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 Poll 2 This post describes a second poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). Links to the  first poll and the results…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up ~ NZ COVID-19 Poll~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

New Zealand currently has about 34% (about 1/3) of its population over 12 fully vaccinated. For Norway the percentage is 67 % (about 2/3). When New Zealand reaches 67% fully vaccinated, which of the following estimates do you think provides the most suitable worst-case scenario for New Zealand over the next 12 months? a) 1,300,000…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 18 ~ Delta variant: NZ vs Norway~ How may % vaccination affect case numbers?

We use Norway data to estimate a worst-case scenario for Norway and New Zealand. We anticipate we could have 500,000 cases over a one-year period and 2100 deaths. Even using Norway’s actual case data provides a scary scenario for New Zealand. New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand…