COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum

COVID Odyssey Addendum Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb I feel like an April fool I have sealed my time capsule Before adding my addendum Alan Grace 26 March 2022 The Time Capsule embargo was lifted briefly on 30 March to include this addendum. Future posts can be…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 43 Post #970~ Website Lockdown Level 5 from 11.59pm on 25 March NZT~ Time Capsule: Changes embargoed forever

From 11.59 pm on 25 March 2022 changes to this website will be embargoed forever. This website will become a time capsule. For older (pre-COVID) and any new posts please see:  https://agrace.altervista.org/ At 11.59 pm on 25 March 2020 New Zealand went into Lockdown Level  4. The COVID-19 posts (time capsule) start in January 2020…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 42 Post #969~ Worldwide windup~ Verification of our formula for Ro

We verify our formula for Ro: For definitions and background please see the WELCOME menu. We also use the same formula to estimate Re. Re is the effective reproduction number when there is isolation. We assume that n =10 and that infectivity reduces by a factor of 1/r each day where r is the daily…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 41 Post #968~ Worldwide windup~ More simulations to confirm our formula

We confirm our estimates for Re and hence Ro worldwide. We have developed spreadsheets simulating the spread of COVID-19 based on a specific daily increase in case numbers (r). We extend our spreadsheet to utilise a range of values for r. As a result of the original simulations we have developed a formula for calculating…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?

Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159). We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called PI. On Pi Day (today) we think it may be appropriate to consider values for Ro for a…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected?

In a recent Poll on an NZ social media website we had these votes: Here is the full question: See:https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67463549 We assume that: There will be no Lockdowns. The dominant variant will be Omicron in the next six months. There will not be any significant improvement in vaccines in the next six months. We will…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 38 Post #965~ NZ COVID-19: Revised calculation for Ro

We modify the way we calculate Ro in three ways. We use the formula we have already developed to calculate Ro based on r, the daily increase in total case numbers. When r = 1.4 as in New Zealand early on in the first 2020 outbreak, r^2 = 1.96 which is close to 2. We…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 37 Post #964~ NZ COVID-19: Case number doubling time~ Rule of 72

We have conducted a poll to see how long it may take for case numbers to quadruple in New Zealand from 100,000 to 400,000. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases? To quadruple the numbers need to double twice. To quadruple in…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases?

We conducted a poll on a suburb-based social media website. Here are the results: The full question is below: We consider that the best answer is 400,000 cases will be achieved in March. Lets call the options in the order above A, B, C, D, E, and F. Option A is the best answer. Score…