COVID-19 NZ: Flattening the curve

We continue the previous post and apply the results to the real number of cases in New Zealand. See:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/covid-19-nz-could-the-results-in-this-model-occur/

Applying yesterday’s analysis to the actual situation in New Zealand, we obtain the graph  below using r = 0.191982638, 1,505 cases in total, and midpoint of 752.5 cases at 34.5 Days (April 1-2).

We note that the midpoint for the red curve is 756 cases (average 1-2 April), very close to the 752.5 cases.

ModelCasesNZ

The number of cases (c) is estimated using the formula

c = Exp( rt ) where t is the number of days (aka D) up to the midpoint
(results after the midpoint are “flipped” results (rotated by 180 degrees) from before the midpoint).

We also “flipped” the actual number of cases with the following result
(the extra curve matches the blue curve up to the midpoint by definition)

ModelCasesNZ1

We see that the flipped actual number of cases (CasesS curve) provides a better estimate from the midpoint up until about 1350 cases.

We also conclude that the blue curve (actual cases) has flattened even more as a result of Lockdown Level 4 (the difference increases between the two curves with the blue curve falling below).

Nevertheless the red curve (CasesS(Exp) is a reasonable approximation for the actual number of cases.

This helps validate the formula.

Below are pdf versions of the above graphs:

NZCasesExpS1

NZCasesExpSS

 

My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

Data for my posts can be found at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

I share my posts at:
https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

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