Coronavirus deaths in China III. Is the final death toll going to be between 3100 and 3200?

In this post we look to see how likely the final number of deaths from this outbreak in China will be between 3100 and 3200.

For background please look at my other posts on Coronavirus. See:

My data comes from:

From 23 February I have changed my number of deaths in my data from worldwide to China only. A transition point was added for 23 Feb so that the transition from the change was not too obvious in the graph.

We have seen an S-Curve is suitable for the number of deaths.

Below is the graph:


The bottom line is a logistic S-curve with L=3125.

The actual death data (light blue line) can be seen trending along this curve.

The line above these is a logistic S-Curve with L=3195.

Both curves use F=7.9/47.

The top lines (the red curve covers the one underneath) is also for a total of 3195 deaths.

The lines rise to between 3,100 and 3,200 deaths (actually 3,125 and 3,195 deaths, the values for L).

Since the actual number of deaths is tracking closely to L=3,125. It appears that the final death count within China is likely to be between 3,100 and 32,00 deaths.

In the previous post we used 3.6 as a factor to estimate the number cases from the number of deaths.

Using 3,100 deaths, this gives the number of cases as 3100/.036 =  86,111 cases.

Using 3,200 deaths, this gives the number of cases as 3200/.036 =  88,889 cases.

We assume that the first number is likely to be too low.

We round our estimate up to 90,000 cases for 3,100 deaths and 95,000 for 3200 deaths.

We adjust out table in the previous post to produce this table:


Our estimate of 90,000 cases for 3,100 deaths and 95,000 for 3200 deaths gives a death rate estimate between 3.35% and 3.45% from the top table.

There are currently 2,944 deaths in China. 3,100 deaths is just over 150 (156) deaths away and 3,200 is only just over 250 (206) deaths away.

Sometimes theoretical results do not produce similar results in real life.

However with only 36 deaths today and only 125 new cases within China, perhaps there is some hope that the remaining number of deaths is not more than about 250 deaths.

With only 125 new cases, it may be possible that the total number of new cases in this outbreak in China is less than 1000.

The current total number of cases in China is 80,151.

If there are only another 1000 new cases and 3100 deaths in total then this would mean a death rate of 3100/81150 = 3.82%

We note that 3100/81500 is still just over 3.8%.

Also 3200/82000 is just over 3.9% and 3200/84000 is just over 3.8%.

We concluded that a death rate of 3.8% may still be possible or even 3.9%.

I publish these results in the hope that this is the case.

Please look at the table below which highlights death rates 3.8% and over:


If there are only 85,000 cases and 3,100 deaths the rate would be 3.65%.

This is much lower than the 3.8% death rate given elsewhere for real cases.

We can look at the above tables and see how likely these figures may be.

Using earlier calculations we got 3.6% ourselves.

Using today’s figures (2,944 deaths, 80,151 cases) we get an estimate 2944/80151= 3.67%.

Note: this is not a death rate since more of these cases may die later.

We can only know the death rate for sure when we know the final death count and the final number of cases.

It is still too early to get a reliable figure.

We need to check in some days to see how the number of deaths keeps tracking on the curves and get a better estimate of the total number of deaths within China.

We conclude using the results of the previous post that the number of deaths is now likely to be between 3,100 and 3,500.

In this post we now expect less cases and less deaths.

Perhaps this will bring a lower death rate.

The limit for a Logistic curves is the number L. Hence L is the total number of deaths.

We will need to confirm in some days what the eventual outcome may be.

Day 50 is 12 March (Next week) so looking at the graph we should have an outcome towards this date.

Please see my previous post for some discussion about the number of deaths after the number of cases stops rising significantly.

We hope the outbreak is nearing its end in China.

Sadly a further outbreak is still likely this year and in future years.

I hope we do not get Coronavirus.

Please keep well and safe.

Alan Grace
3 March 2020

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