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Lucky million A million fully recovered COVID wonderfully smothered It’s not absurd Close to one third Hope many will be discovered Alan Grace 30 April 2020 Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:35 GMT Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Symptoms – Incubation – Transmission – News Coronavirus Cases: 3,219,424 Deaths: 228,197 Recovered: 1,000,293 view by country Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:56 GMT: Country, Total Total…
Month: April 2020
Helicopter money
Helicopter money debate Helicopter money is moot Fifteen hundred dollars of loot Is this money really Distributed fairly I want my golden parachute Alan Grace 27 April 2020 Helicopter money is money that is given away to (almost) all residents in the country. One possible option is to distribute $1500 to every adult resident in…
COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?
COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantic tricks Dirty politics Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 Previous version: COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantics Just dirty tricks Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 New Zealand has claimed we have eliminated COVID-19. This does not…
COVID-19 NZ: We are down to Level 3 Lockdown. Keep your Bubble exclusive and small!
Threedom The Herald calls L3 Threedom This seems more cheesy than edam Please keep your Bubble small For no virus at all Hope L2 gives us more freedom Alan Grace 28 April 2020 Keep your Bubble small Double your Bubble Score will redouble Twice would be nice Four times not thrice You’re in more…
COVID-19 NZ: Schools reopen this week. Will there be transmission of virus from children to adults?
Child COVID-19 My ire is nigh sky high risen Where’s child wild COVID transmission Sigh shocked my brain hurts From Lockdown alerts Even my Zen is in prison Alan Grace 21 April 2020 New Zealand moves from Lockdown Level 4 to Level 3 at 11.59 pm tonight for at least two weeks. Schools and many…
COVID-19 NZ: Modelling using Fibonacci sequences (Cont)
In this post we will continue using Fibonacci sequences to estimate the number of cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand. For background, please see my previous posts https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/ We will add a lower Fibonacci sequence (Re=2*) to estimate the approach of the midpoint for the number of cases (excluding a long tail). The only change…
ANZAC Day today in NZ
Anzac commemorations Poppies standing tall in each row On the graves dignity bestow Cherish the memory So our military Never off to world war will go Alan Grace 25 April 2018 See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2018/04/25/vanishing-point-aka-hells-front-linesan-acrostic/
COVID-19: Can NZ do contact-tracing effectively quickly enough?
A little list A contact list What is the gist Who did you see Near recently Take care none missed Alan Grace 24 April 2020 Remember to keep a list of all your contacts to assist with contact-tracing in case you or someone you have been in contact with get infected. Contract-tracing should ideally be…
COVID-19 NZ: Could cases have quadrupled if we had delayed Lockdown Level 4?
Lockdown effect We could have had cases galore If we had not gone to L4 Eight times more you see Says Fibonacci Why should NZ even want more Alan Grace 23 April 2020 Could cases have been eight times the current number in ten days if New Zealand not gone into Lockdown Level 4 when…
NZ COVID-19: Without Lockdown would cases have at least doubled? Does each person infect 2 others (Re=2)?
No fib Do not sit upon the fence Keep in your bubble’s defence There may be trouble Cases may double Says Fibonacci sequence Alan Grace 22 April 2020 We use Fibonacci sequences to answer the above questions. The usual Fibonacci sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, … Where each number (after…
A week until L3
L3 in a week A week at L4 Who would hope for more What a great cost Cope with jobs lost Firms could close their door Alan Grace 21 April 2020 New Zealand was due to end four weeks of Level 4 Lockdown tomorrow night (Wednesday). This was extended until 11.59 Monday when we will…
COVID-19: New Zealand Government will announce if we will go down to Level 3 Lockdown. Stay in Level 4!
A flash in the pan? My ire’s higher risen And my flintlock’s frizzen Sigh shocked my brain hurts From Lockdown alerts My Zen is in prison Alan Grace 20 April 2020 Another version: A flash in the pan? My ire is nigh sky high risen And so is my flintlock’s frizzen Sigh shocked my brain…
COVID-19: What is the risk of extending your Bubble? Stay in your own Bubble!
Keep your Bubble small Double your Bubble Score will redouble Twice would be nice Four times not thrice You’re in more trouble Alan Grace 18 April 2020 The New Zealand Government will decide on Monday whether (two days later) we will stay at Lockdown Level 4 or go down to Level 3. Regardless of the…
COVID-19 NZ: Do it Once, Do it Right! Extend L4 Lockdown for at least an extra week!
Stay in Level 4 So much pain with no gain My brain may grow insane What a bloody cockup Maintain L4 lockup Do not drain me again Alan Grace 16 April 2020 We need to extend Level four (L4) Lockdown for at least an extra week (initially) because: The four weeks in L4 Lockdown will…
COVID-19 cases reach 2,000,000; 125,000+ deaths; almost 485,000 recovered. How about NZ?
On April 15, 2020, 05:10 GMT: Coronavirus Cases: 2,000,065 Deaths: 126,754 Recovered: 484,597 NZ Coronavirus Cases: 1,386 NZ Deaths: 9 Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Incubation –Symptoms – News view by country New Zealand continues to be very lucky. The curve has now flattened. However the number of deaths since last Thursday (when we only had one death) is concerning. NZ now…
COVID-19 Easter
Sadly New Zealand now has four deaths; two announced yesterday and one the day before. New Zealand is very lucky we have not had more deaths or more cases. We currently have 1312 cases, although 422 have recovered. We have 886 active cases. https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2019/04/16/quartet-2/ My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for…
COVID-19 USA. Trump this: Over 500,000 cases and 20,000 deaths. Worldwide over 100,000 deaths and 400,000 recovered.
As at April 11, 2020, 19:28 GMT, sadly USA has the largest number of cases and the largest number of deaths from COVID-19. COVID-19 USA. Trump this: Over 500,000 cases and 20,000 deaths. Worldwide over 100,000 deaths and 400,000 recovered. Worldwide: Coronavirus Cases: 1,765,500 Deaths: 108,042 Recovered: 400,708 view by country Both graphs below…
NZ COVID-19: NZ has its second death
Isaiah 26:20 Go, my people, enter your rooms and shut the doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until his wrath has passed by. Sadly New Zealand announced its second COVID-19-related death today. A slight increase in the number of cases (44) today, up from 29 yesterday. We now have a total of…
NZ COVID-19. Conclusions at initial Lockdown midpoint. NZ should stay at Level 4 Lockdown for an extra 4 weeks.
Yesterday marked the midpoint for New Zealand’s initial four week Level 4 Lockdown period. This period still has another two weeks until it ends. The Government has stated that it will not end early. Below are my conclusions and a copy of an email I sent yesterday to some Party leaders and the Director-General of…
COVID-19: Proof that 5 April was NZ COVID-19 midpoint. NZ should not come out of Level 4 Lockdown for 4 extra weeks!
The graph below is visual “proof” that New Zealand case numbers reached the midpoint on 5 April! =========================================================================== Update: For my conclusions at the Lockdown midpoint (posted on 9 April), please see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/04/09/nz-covid-19-conclusions-at-initial-lockdown-midpoint-nz-should-stay-at-level-4-lockdown-for-an-extra-4-weeks/ =========================================================================== We conclude that Level 4 Lockdown should continue until at least 14 May even if the peak/midpoint may be earlier than…
COVID-19 NZ: How many cases and deaths may we expect?
We look at the number of cases and deaths for New Zealand, Australia, and Norway to estimate the possible total number of cases and deaths in New Zealand. ================================================================== Update: Proof that 5 April was NZ COVID-19 midpoint. NZ should not come out of Level 4 Lockdown for 4 extra weeks! See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/04/07/covid-19-nz-ii-how-many-cases-and-deaths-may-we-expect-when-should-nz-come-out-of-level-4-lockdown/ ================================================================== In…
Coronavirus II (an acrostic)
My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/
COVID NZ: Have Cases peaked? New Zealand will not go out of Lockdown level 4 early.
Stay in Lockdown Is the curve Flattening Or is it Fattening Do you have the nerve To fatten the curve COVID’s not Flattering Alan Grace Note: The prime minister confirmed yesterday that New Zealand will not go out of Lockdown level 4 early. Some sources think New Zealand’s number of cases have peaked (passed the…
COVID-19: Deaths compared with China
The graph below shows the total number of deaths compared with China (3,322 deaths). Vertical scale shows multiples of China’s deaths. ‘Rest’ means the rest of the world. Total number of deaths = 58,110. My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand I share…
COVID-19: NZ is doing well
NZ is doing well New Zealand is doing extremely well Is the lockdown working how can we tell? Our cases are fine They form a straight line Despite people being stupid as hell Alan Grace 4 April 2020 Please be considerate of other people when you are on foot on the road or footpath. We…
COVID-19 NZ: Like yesterday the straight line is 6 below the actual number of cases
Life under COVID-19 Sadly life may not seem sweet Although we may like to greet face to face in meat space Only Online may we meet Alan Grace 3 April 2020 Today in New Zealand we had 71 new cases, bringing the total number of cases to 868 in NZ. The straight line has the…
COVID-19 worldwide: Over 1 million cases; 50,000 deaths; 200,000 recovered
NZ’s cases currently linear If I may be dogmatic China’s deaths deemed quadratic Results seemed very clear COVID Evidence there NZ’s may not stay static Alan Grace 2 April 2020 Earlier version: NZ’s cases currently linear If I may be dogmatic China’s deaths were quadratic The results are there Evidence is clear NZ’s may not…
Cat’s rack
Cat’s rack II Please do not be taken aback Cat likes to drink wine from her rack Her wine bra is wearable No one’s fine mind bearable Show us your rack or get flak back. Alan Grace 2 April 2020 Original version: Cat’s rack Please do not be taken aback Cat likes to drink wine…
COVID-19: NZ Cases currently linear
NZ COVID-19 Cases Linear NZ Cases form a straight line If this were the norm would be fine What will be our fate How long will we wait Until the graph is not divine Alan Grace 2 April 2020 New Zealand COVID-19 Cases (Cumulative) are currently linear (a straight line). This is the best possible…
COVID-19 in NZ: Did you think my “predictions” were bad? What do you think of these scenarios/ modelling?
In this post we look at reports released yesterday on the Ministry of Health (MOH) website. The reports can be found here: https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/covid-19-modelling-reports We comment mainly on the first and last of these reports. We suggest you read the reports. We include excerpts (from the two reports mentioned) below: Comments In the two reports we…
COVID-19: Over 850,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. Will the number of deaths reach 150,000 in the next 3 weeks?
Flatten the curve Humanity faces Steep curve that high races Do not COVID serve Please flatten the curve To two million cases Alan Grace 22 March 2020 (updated 1 April) Today just before 12.00 midday NZ time: Coronavirus Cases: 854,608 Deaths: 42,043 Recovered: …
Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey 