COVID-19 NZ: Could cases have quadrupled if we had delayed Lockdown Level 4?

Lockdown effect

We could have had cases galore
If we had not gone to L4
Eight times more you see
Says Fibonacci
Why should NZ even want more

Alan Grace
23 April 2020

Could cases have been eight times the current number in ten days if New Zealand not gone into Lockdown Level 4 when we did? Or more than four times on 6 April?

In the previous post we saw that cases could have doubled if New Zealand had not gone into Lockdown Level 4 at 11,59 pm on Wednesday 25 March (Day 27). See:

For convenience we retained the same midpoint on 31 March – 1 April.

In reality the midpoint would have been later for the Fibonacci sequence.

What may have happened if the midpoint for the Fibonacci sequence was later as we expect?

Instead of our current 1451 cases, may we have ended up with the final total in the table below? Perhaps as usual we should add 10% for a long tail.

Day# Date Fibonacci
Re = 2
Total cases
(Fibonacci x2)
34 1/04/20 1525 3050
35 2/04/20 2020 4040
36 3/04/20 2676 5352
37 4/04/20 3545 7090
38 5/04/20 4696 9392
39 6/04/20 6221 12442

Once again 6221 = 3545 + 2676.

Just four days later we may have had 9392 cases, more than triple the 3050 estimated on 1 April.

Five days later the figure is almost 12,500 more than quadruple.

The means we could have ended up with six or eight times our current number of cases ten days or less from now.


My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:

Data for my posts can be found at:

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