We could have had cases galore
If we had not gone to L4
Eight times more you see
Why should NZ even want more
23 April 2020
Could cases have been eight times the current number in ten days if New Zealand not gone into Lockdown Level 4 when we did? Or more than four times on 6 April?
In the previous post we saw that cases could have doubled if New Zealand had not gone into Lockdown Level 4 at 11,59 pm on Wednesday 25 March (Day 27). See:
For convenience we retained the same midpoint on 31 March – 1 April.
In reality the midpoint would have been later for the Fibonacci sequence.
What may have happened if the midpoint for the Fibonacci sequence was later as we expect?
Instead of our current 1451 cases, may we have ended up with the final total in the table below? Perhaps as usual we should add 10% for a long tail.
Re = 2
Once again 6221 = 3545 + 2676.
Just four days later we may have had 9392 cases, more than triple the 3050 estimated on 1 April.
Five days later the figure is almost 12,500 more than quadruple.
The means we could have ended up with six or eight times our current number of cases ten days or less from now.
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