Welcome. My name is Alan Grace. I live in Titirangi (Auckland, New Zealand).
Welcome to My COVID Odyssey.
By definition we let:
- r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day; r is the growth in the number of cases. We usually calculate r (for one day) using the rise in cases over the next 5 days.
- Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation
- Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19
(Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening)
- a case be defined as a person diagnosed as having COVID-19
Note that Ro and Re are numbers (not rates), the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average without quarantine or isolation (Ro) and with quarantine or isolation (Re). Ro and Re both use this formula:
where n = 10 infectious days.
We assume that infectivity reduces by a factor of 1/r each day.
Below please find values for r (daily growth) and corresponding values for Re:
We also have this table:
This PDF may be easier to read:
Please read the Disclaimer.
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Rather than take up screen real estate at the top of my Home page, I have put my Welcome page on this separate page so that you don’t need to scroll down past it all the time (this is one of my pet hates; having to scroll down when there are large images at the top of a page).
You may like to view: My ‘First’ post (formerly Alan Grace: Header Post)
Enjoy my Blog.
Wordplay … Poetry in Progress.
The AAAmazing Phoenix