COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 9 Post #936~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 25% to 30%+ higher than Re?

In this post we use case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro. This post has been superseded. For updates see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 10 Post #937~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 20% higher than Re? COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 11 Post…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 8 Post #935~ NZ Omicron: Estimating Ro

We use actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We find that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period. For update see:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2022/02/01/covid-odyssey-nz-new-year-fear-11-post-938-nz-covid-19-can-ro-be-30-higher-than-re/ To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we need to estimate (project) the…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 7 Post #934~ NZ Red: 10 cases of Omicron in Community ~ Is wedding or funeral a super-spreader event?

A group from Motueka who flew to Auckland from New Plymouth on 13 January have tested positive for the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and it’s not known how they caught it. The group attended a wedding, a funeral, an amusement park, the Sky Tower, and passed Omicron on to an Air NZ crew member who…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 6 Post #933~ Omicron will be dominant variant in NZ community in 2 to 4 weeks

What community variant? What on earth letter are we onWhen will we next have OmicronDelta is now dominantOmicron soon prominentPerhaps rename it Omnicron? Alan Grace14 January 2022 We have only had one known case of community spread of Omicron in New Zealand. NZ Herald today (14 Jan) on P1: Should we rename Omicron, Omnicron? Below…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 5 Post #932~ NZ Delta unvaccinated vs fully vaccinated cases: 20x more likely to be in hospital; 3.5x number of cases

We look at data from the current Delta outbreak in New Zealand. We find that the likelihood of fully vaccinated to be hospitalised is less than 5% of the likelihood of unvaccinated being hospitalised. We find that Covid cases in NZ are 3.5 times more likely to be unvaccinated than vaccinated. We first note this…

COVID Odyssey~ NZ New Year Fear 4 Post #931~ NZ Hospitalisations: Almost 75% from [20%] unvaxxed; 7% from fully vaxxed

We look at the difference Vaccination makes to hospitalisations in New Zealand during the current Delta outbreak. New Zealand has an ongoing Delta outbreak that started around 16 August 2021. Below are hospitalisation details up to 11.59pm on 5 January 2022: The first three columns can be found at: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics 20% of New Zealand residents…

COVID Odyssey: New Year Fear 3 ~ Post #930 World vs NZ Vaccinations: 80% first dose; 77% full

New Zealand vaccinations are below. We also make worldwide comparisons. Almost 20% (around one million people; mainly children under 12?) of the total NZ population have no COVID-19 vaccination (mainly Pfizer) yet. At least around 92% of the eligible population is fully vaccinated. See: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data For worldwide vaccination levels (earlier date; ranked by fully vaccinated)…

COVID Odyssey: New Year Fear 2 ~ Post #929: We got our booster shot today

Stop COVID There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united Against…

COVID Odyssey: New Year Fear ~ Post #928: How sky high are these PI hypotheses?

Hi PI How the New Year drew near We dread the clear new fear Now sky high rear these PI hypotheses How soon ere PI appear Alan Grace 2 January 2022 We assume that the next upcoming COVID-19 VOC (Variant of Concern) may be called PI when it is eventually comes/ is identified. We look…