COVID-19: Go to Level 4 immediately to flatten the curve. Will the number of cases worldwide reach 45 million in the next month?

Flatten the curve

Humanity faces
Steep curve that high races
Do not COVID serve
Please flatten the curve
To ten million cases

Alan Grace
22 March 2020

Going to level 4 immediately is the only way to successfully attempt to flatten the curve significantly.

The NZ government is acting far too slowly. They are playing Russian roulette with our lives. They are not being proactive. Being reactive is not a good solution.

The graph in my previous post showed the likelihood of 2 million deaths worldwide in the next month. Currently there are 14,441 deaths and 337,327 cases worldwide. This is over 23 cases for each death.

When the number of deaths reaches 2 million worldwide, the number of cases is likely to be at least 46 million (2 x 23) unless we successfully flatten the curve.

The only way to reduce this number in the near future is to flatten the curve.



You can find the NZ alert levels here:

Level 4:

• People instructed to stay at home
• Educational facilities closed
• Businesses closed except for essential services (e.g. supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics) and lifeline utilities
• Rationing of supplies and requisitioning of facilities
• Travel severely limited
• Major reprioritisation of healthcare services


Hopefully flattening the curve will reduce the number of cases and deaths.

If the curve does not flatten, this is what we may expect
(we are Day 60, 22 March; Day 90 is one month away, 21 April):


Recall: The above projection was based on this graph:


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