COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up ~ NZ COVID-19 Poll~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

New Zealand currently has about 34% (about 1/3) of its population over 12 fully vaccinated. For Norway the percentage is 67 % (about 2/3). When New Zealand reaches 67% fully vaccinated, which of the following estimates do you think provides the most suitable worst-case scenario for New Zealand over the next 12 months? a) 1,300,000…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 19 ~ Delta variant ~ The first ten days of Lockdown

The first ten days of Lockdown At the start of Day One Lockdown bubble begun Around hour of midnight Now no virus in sight When will the fight be won? Chorus Healthy virus-free day for us Healthy virus-free day for us Healthy virus-free day dear bubble Healthy virus-free day for us It’s halfway through Day…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 18 ~ Delta variant: NZ vs Norway~ How may % vaccination affect case numbers?

We use Norway data to estimate a worst-case scenario for Norway and New Zealand. We anticipate we could have 500,000 cases over a one-year period and 2100 deaths. Even using Norway’s actual case data provides a scary scenario for New Zealand. New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 17 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Will the total exceed 1500 cases?

We estimate a new range for the current Delta outbreak in New Zealand to be 1329 to 1517 cases. We have previously estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 16 ~ Lockdown breaches ~ The COVID Cowboys

The COVID cowboys Clark and Willie Wanaker One Were among the breaches boys After lockdown had begun Cowboys playing with their toys Having lots of fun Making lots of noise While we wished our work was done Siouxsie Wiles made a few breaches With wily pink smiles and poise Sinking in the sea; sunning on…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible?

The vaccine hesitant includes a range of people ranging from people fearful of getting a jab, those fearful of the consequences of getting a jab, to anti-vaxxers. ‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 9 ~ Ro > Re ~ How much greater is Ro?

We consider how much greater Ro  is than Re. We look at the following table: For definitions see: Welcome In New Zealand  both r = SQRT(2) and r = 1.429 provide good estimates for the total number of cases from 21 to 25 August 2021. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant outbreak 2021 ~ Estimating Ro and Re

We estimate under the current Lockdown Level 4 in Auckland one person may infect 6 to 6.3 other people in New Zealand in the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19. Without lockdown we have estimated one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect 9 to 12.75 other people. See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14 ~ Estimating total 2021 Cases ~ The range still appears to be 940 to 1073 cases

We have estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be? You may like to look at the…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 8 ~ Ro ~ Estimating Re & Ro by 3 straight lines

We have estimated Re and Ro for COVID-19 using the linear equation y = 17r – 18, where r is a daily growth rate of infections (estimated over the next 5 days). We now add in two extra lines to complete the approximations. The three lines are: y = 17r – 18       …

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 7 ~ Ro ~ Estimating Ro by a straight line

We estimate Re and Ro for COVID-19 using the linear equation y = 17r – 18, where r is a daily growth rate of infections (estimated over the next 5 days). i.e. We use the value calculated for y in the equation as an estimate for Re and Ro. Update: See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 6 ~ Ro ~ Estimates for the Alpha and Delta variants

We have already estimated Ro for the original COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020 and for the Delta variant.  We have estimated Ro between 5 and 8 for the original COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020. We have estimated Ro between 9 and 12.7 for the original Delta COVID-19 Outbreak. We now estimate Ro for the 2020 Alpha variant. …

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide

We revise our estimates for Ro worldwide. Previously we had the ranking below (see r1 and Re1 columns) for the 2020 outbreak (note: r1 is without weights; r2 is with weights): The above was calculated using: Note that n = 10 days and  r[d] is a daily increase (growth factor) calculated over the next 5…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 13 ~ Delta variant ~ Estimating r, Re and Ro

Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
We look again at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We look at case numbers up to 6 August 2020. As expected estimates for Re#2 (last column in the first table, calculated using…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be?

Since there were only 20 new cases in New Zealand yesterday (4 September) we revise our estimate for the total number of cases in this outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19. First it is useful to look at the outbreak in New Zealand in early 2020. Please look at this post: COVID Odyssey: Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 11 ~ Delta variant ~ Will NZ Cases exceed last year?

The total number of cases in this outbreak in New Zealand is likely to exceed the the total in the outbreak early in 2020 if the midpoint is in September. Update. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be? Yesterday the number of…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

We analyse the 2021 outbreak in New Zealand. We hope that the midpoint has been reached. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined as a…