COVID-19: Over 300,000 cases now! Will the death toll reach 2 million in the next month?

In this post we look at a graph that predicts a world death toll of over two million deaths one month from now.

We are coming up to Day 60 (22 March; Day 1 was 23 January). The graph below projects the death toll for the next 30 days up to 21 April (Day 90).


Projecting this far out is never wise. It does however provide a rough estimate that can be refined in several days when more data is available.

The graph shows a death toll of over two million deaths one month from now.

The actual world death toll may be far different particularly if everyone plays their part to flatten the curve.

We have previously looked at S-Curves. These provided a useful fit for Chinese deaths. If the mid-point for COVID-19 worldwide appears to have been reached before Day 90 (unlikely), we will need to consider if S-Curves work for COVID-19 worldwide.

Instead of the factor 177 in the graph formula, factors from 167 to 187 only changed the results by a fraction of a day.

Many countries, including New Zealand (where I live) are attempting to “flatten the curve” so that not as many deaths occur at the same time.

Please do your part in “flattening the curve” by self-isolating as much as possible.

In my previous post I showed the first part of the above graph:


The projection for yesterday (11,507) was slightly higher than the actual number of deaths (by 121 deaths). Today the death toll has already reached 12,995 deaths and 301,627 cases.

You may like to look below for information about the 1918 Spanish flu:

“The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic,[1] was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 through December 1920, it infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world’s population.[2] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million[3] to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.[4][5]

“The Spanish flu was the first of two pandemics caused by the H1N1 influenza virus, with the second being the swine flu in 2009.”

I was not aware that the Spanish flu was caused by the H1N1 virus.

Please keep yourself safe and well.

Alan Grace
22 March 2020

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