COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Mostly over the last year we…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…

Bitcoin close to half as China ramps up Crypto clamp down

Bitcoin Falls as China Clamps Down 🇨🇳 Bitcoin fell to lows of $31,780.79 on Monday amid fears that a crypto crackdown launched by China is going to be even harsher than first feared. Beijing summoned a number of banks and urged them to ramp up efforts to identify those participating in crypto transactions. At the…

COVID Odyssey: Borty’s First Jab

Borty’s First Jab Quite long in the tooth Certainly not in his youth Borty got the call for his jab He arrived at the place And then had to face A sight that he found rather sad The folks there were old Just like he’d been told But surely much older than he He was…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs and let COVID die away

Let COVID die away [My Way] And now, the end is near And so I face the final curtain My friend, I’ll say it clear I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain I’ve lived a life that’s full I’ve traveled each and every highway Oh, and more, much more than this [Got my last…

COVID-19 Resthome Care NZ: Happy Mother’s day Mum

Happy Mother’s Day Mum. The issues we have with mum’s resthome care may not just be because of COVID-19. Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service aka SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents and Poor Real Estate Customer Service On this page we will be looking at: SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service My mother (94) is in Lynton Lodge,…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation

CSAW The CSAW simulationNeeds no more validationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek neat explanation Alan Grace8 September 2020 We provide an explanation of the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model).  Please also see:COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ formulation verification First we randomly simulate an outbreak of COVID-19. Once we have…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification

CSAW The CSAW formulationNeeds more verificationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek a neat foundation Alan Grace5 September 2020 We look at the formula that we developed from the CSAW (COVID-19  Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). We establish a table to verify the formula and use the table to confirmRo for New Zealand. We issue…

COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition

Spain appears at or near the top in almost all of our worldwide lists. See:COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country? Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?…

COVID Odyssey: OZ Adventure ~ COVID OdOZy

We look at the outbreak of COVID-19 in Australia. Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? For background, please look at:COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How…

COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)

Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? We look at the spread of COVID-19 in the 12 worst-affected African countries and look at this article published 16 July 2020:Africas40249-020-00718-y The 12 African countries are (alphabetically):AlgeriaCameroonEgyptGhanaKenyaMaliMauritaniaMoroccoNigeriaSenegalSouth AfricaSudan We…

COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?

Please read Updates:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windupCOVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4COVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4rCOVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4r We estimate Ro (see below) by applying the analysis undertaken in New Zealand to the rest of the world. Note that data for the analysis below is for confirmed cases…

COVID Odyssey: Matariki, Maori New Year ~ New Dawning

COVID Matariki Matariki day morning Sun and the new year dawning An R-zero of six May I throw in the mix Six times more passings mourning Alan Grace 17 July 2020 Many in New Zealand are currently celebrating Matariki, the Maori New Year. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matariki https://www.kiwifamilies.co.nz/articles/matariki-maori-new-year/ https://www.tepapa.govt.nz/discover-collections/read-watch-play/maori/matariki-maori-new-year/what-matariki Sadly no-one from New Zealand appears to have…

COVID Odyssey: Deep Spring Clean ~ When will the next wave come?

Sick to death of Gutenberg How long ’til Gutenberg’s due WordPress please give me a clue We will need a strong pill Delay’s making me ill Guess it’s now long overdue Alan Grace 24 June 2020 This page has been set up early before the new WordPress editor (Gutenberg) is forced upon me. It is…

COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze ~ Introduction

Summer Daze Foreign virus exchange Our new normal is strange The halcyon Days don’t begin COVID’s made a great change Alan Grace 29 May 2020 COVID-19 has changed the world. This site documents my journey and my attempts to use simple mathematics (that hopefully a good high school student may be able to follow) to…

COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves ~ Quest complete?

Autumn Leaves Fall leaves in Autumn May peace and rest come Soon in June Cries to moon Spoiled soiled world numb Alan Grace 30 May 2020 New Zealand has not had any new cases of COVID-19 for the last six days. We have a total of 1504 cases and 22 deaths. 1500 cases was the…

COVID-19: Methods of Analysis

In this post we shall look at ways experts analyse the spread of COVID-19. My own mathematical techniques are simple but have produced some surprising results. Analysis can quite often involve solving systems of differential equations (see below). How Ro is estimated ‘A typical epidemiological model by which R0 is estimated is based on three…

COVID-19 NZ Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser! Talk about Snail Mail!

====================================================================== Update: ====================================================================== Sadly Pet Depot is no longer providing good service. Cat food ordered on 2 July was not ready for the courier to pick up until 10 July- over a week! Today (14 July) we are still waiting for the food to be delivered 😦 ====================================================================== CourierPost is the Latest Loser: 18 days…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V

We look again in this post at using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate cases numbers in New Zealand. In the previous post we concluded that an infected person could infect other people for two cycles. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/ This suggested that a Fibonacci sequence could work to estimate case numbers. In the post we also saw…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 others?

In this post we investigate to see if one person with COVID-19 can infect 2.7 other people on average. Note: R, Ro, and Re are used for the number of people than can be infected by one person (the number of new cases infected by one person). Ro (called R-zero or R-nought) is used when…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?

We investigate to see if in New Zealand one person may infect 2.6 others. We consider again this image: Source: New York Times. How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)? If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people…

COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?

The New Zealand Ministry of Health (MOH) commissioned a number of reports in February and March this year. One report states that 27,600 would be expected to die in a worst case scenario. Could this have occurred? This post considers that report which produced the following results for a worst case scenario: “Results: In this…

COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!

At 11.59 last night, New Zealand moved down to Lockdown Level 2. Below is what I wrote in the first few days of level 4 Lockdown: My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/? I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

Stay Away.

Originally posted on Bits of things that pop into this mind.:
Your not welcomed in my thoughts. Stay away from my world. Out of my head. Leave my dreams in peace. Better yet, You dare step in. I’ll entertain that handsome grin. Leave you with a few memories. Make you feel my pain. In exchange,…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives Death number I always wondered US COVID may have plundered Months from now could we count the cost How many thousand would be lost Two hundred if Trump has blundered Alan Grace 10 May 2020 Alan Grace 10 May 2020 In this post we extend the work of the previous post…

COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for Australia confirmed cases: Below we…

COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for NZ cases: We expect the…

COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases

We have generated a number of estimates for the number of cases. Before generating estimates for future cases and the total number of cases we first have to find the midpoint for the actual number of cases. Otherwise we will not know when to “flip” our (cumulative) estimates generated up to the midpoint to create…

COVID-19: 1,000,000 recovered. These may not have immunity.

Lucky million A million fully recovered COVID wonderfully smothered It’s not absurd Close to one third Hope many will be discovered Alan Grace 30 April 2020 Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:35 GMT Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Symptoms – Incubation – Transmission – News Coronavirus Cases: 3,219,424 Deaths: 228,197 Recovered: 1,000,293 view by country Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:56 GMT: Country, Total Total…

Helicopter money

Helicopter money debate Helicopter money is moot Fifteen hundred dollars of loot Is this money really Distributed fairly I want my golden parachute Alan Grace 27 April 2020 Helicopter money is money that is given away to (almost) all residents in the country. One possible option is to distribute $1500 to every adult resident in…

COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?

COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantic tricks Dirty politics Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 Previous version: COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantics Just dirty tricks Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 New Zealand has claimed we have eliminated COVID-19. This does not…