COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 14 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

Last week New Zealand introduced a Traffic-Light system to be introduced at the end of November if Auckland (Auckland’s three District health Boards) hopefully has 90% of its population fully vaccinated. See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/300436587/covid19-nz-how-the-traffic-light-system-will-work-and-what-new-zealand-needs-to-do-to-reach-it At the end of September, 38% were fully vaccinated. We look at possible vaccination target scenarios to achieve the 90% goal. This…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

We will discuss poll 4: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67051043 Here are the poll results: We believe the best choice is: The curve corresponding to 1.60. Below is a modified graph with extra vertical gridlines added to show quarter-months intervals (approximately 7.5-day intervals) The PDF below may be easier to read: COVID38Dec90 The graph was produced from these…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

We analyse the 2021 outbreak in New Zealand. We hope that the midpoint has been reached. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined as a…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs

Get your jabs There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for NZ in 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Note: The formula in this post…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…

Bitcoin close to half as China ramps up Crypto clamp down

Bitcoin Falls as China Clamps Down 🇨🇳 Bitcoin fell to lows of $31,780.79 on Monday amid fears that a crypto crackdown launched by China is going to be even harsher than first feared. Beijing summoned a number of banks and urged them to ramp up efforts to identify those participating in crypto transactions. At the…

COVID Odyssey: Borty’s First Jab

Borty’s First Jab Quite long in the tooth Certainly not in his youth Borty got the call for his jab He arrived at the place And then had to face A sight that he found rather sad The folks there were old Just like he’d been told But surely much older than he He was…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs and let COVID die away

Let COVID die away [My Way] And now, the end is near And so I face the final curtain My friend, I’ll say it clear I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain I’ve lived a life that’s full I’ve traveled each and every highway Oh, and more, much more than this [Got my last…

COVID-19 Resthome Care NZ: Happy Mother’s day Mum

Happy Mother’s Day Mum. The issues we have with mum’s resthome care may not just be because of COVID-19. Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service aka SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents and Poor Real Estate Customer Service On this page we will be looking at: SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service My mother (94) is in Lynton Lodge,…