COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 10 ~ COVID-19 Delta variant ~ Conclusions 2021

The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to be twice as infectious as the original 2020 outbreak. We have found that Ro for the Delta variant is between 9 and 12.7. Ro is the average number of people once person may infect over a period of n = 10 days when there is no quarantine or…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 9 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Is Ro in the range 9 to 12.7?

The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to be twice as infectious as the original 2020 outbreak. for the 2020 outbreak we estimated Ro = 6. In previous posts we simulated outbreaks using a value for Ro around 12.7 (actually Ro = SQRT(3)). In this post we consider also Ro = 9 (halfway between 6 and…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 8 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Graphs

We look at graphs of the number of people that may be infected by one person having the Delta variant of COVID-19. The graphs are produced from our simulations for 1778 cases for Day 12 starting with 10 cases on Day 1 and using a daily increase of r = SQRT(3) with an infectious period…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 7 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Simulations

In the previous post we saw that for the Delta variant there could be a daily increase in the number of cases of r = SQRT(3). For background see: COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12? This would give rise to the table below: We see from…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for NZ in 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Note: The formula in this post…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 3 ~ Carpe diem 2020 ~ Estimating Ro by simulations

In early 2020 we calculated that there was a daily increase in cases of r = 1.4 and we assumed infectivity decreased by 1/r each day over n = 10 days. We created simulations to estimate Ro, the number of people a person with COVID-19 was likely to infect on average. How do we choose…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 2 ~ In early 2020 can one person infect 4 or 6 others on average?

Ro is the number of people that on average one person with COVID-19 may infect. Note: The formula in this post has been updated. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6 Early in 2020 we arrived at the following table…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…