COVID-19 in China: Only 40 new cases. With 5,111 serious/critical cases, will there still be between 3200 and 3500 deaths?

There have been only 40 new cases of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) in China yesterday (8 March). We hope this indicates new cases are nearing the end as we have expected.

There are still 5,111 serious/critical cases. We are unsure what affect these 5,111 cases may have on the final number of deaths.

In our discussions, weeks ago we could not have anticipated this number of serious/critical cases.

We estimated the mid-point for the S-Curves at 23.5 days from 22 January. This indicated a final number of deaths 47 days later at 3195.

Today is day 46 and there have now been 3119 deaths, 76 deaths less than our 3195 estimate.

We also estimated an alternate midpoint at 24.5 days  with the final number of deaths 49 days later at 3,444.

We concluded the number of deaths was likely to be from 3200 to 3500.

We have used the 3,195 death-estimate in our calculations and graphs.

Since on 23 January there was a total of 825 cases and 25 deaths, the first cases and deaths occurred some days earlier.

The cumulative number of deaths was 1 (first death) on 11 January, 2 on 17 January, 3 on 20 January, and 17 on 22 January.

We therefore expected the final deaths some days after day 50 (12 March) even without the 5,111 figure.

For background information, please see my previous posts:

Data for my posts can be found at:

We also looked at a mortality rate (CFR=Case Fatality Rate) estimate of between 3.85% and 3.9%.

For the serious/critical cases we expect the rate to be higher, perhaps more than double or triple this CFR.

We need to wait to see what effect the 5,111 serious/critical cases will have on the final number of deaths and hence the CFR.

We will not be surprised to see the number of new cases less than the number of new deaths tomorrow or the next day.

Alan Grace
9 March 2020

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Reminder: If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others, then 5 people could be sick after 1 Cycle, 18 people after 2 Cycles, 52 people after 3 Cycles and so on. See:


5 Comments Add yours

  1. Glad you contacted me because you are one of the many that was lost to me and I appreciate it so much!

    Liked by 1 person

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