NZ COVID-19 Polls

We look at two recent New Zealand COVID-19 polls. Both polls were posted on Neighbourly, a New Zealand suburb-based social media website. The first poll is ongoing nation-wide. The second poll is based around some suburbs in West Auckland. For all my COVID-19 posts see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ The following (interim) results occurred: With one more vote…

COVID-19 NZ~ Is no-isolation a dumb idea?

No Isolation No mask-wearing now the norm All so easy to perform No more isolation A bizarre creation Is this now the perfect storm? Alan Grace 16 August 2023 What may happen with COVID-19 spread within schools (and elsewhere) now there is no longer a mandatory isolation requirement when a student (or anyone else) becomes…

All COVID-19 requirements removed in NZ~ no more isolation & no masks required

Pandemic over We can never see how NZ can take the bow Get sick and cry Get well or die Pandemic’s over now? Alan Grace 15 August 2023 The NZ Government has announced that: All COVID-19 requirements removed 14 Aug 2023 Effective from 12:01am Tuesday 15 August, 7 day mandatory isolation, wearing of face masks…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ GIGO: New Zealand has moved up one position!

A duplication in our source data we obtained from an outside source has meant New Zealand has moved up one position in world rankings. GIGO means Garbage In Garbage Out. The new rankings are: Norway and New Zealand have changed positions. The last column ranks countries by r* our two-day average estimation for r. We…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ Computation of r and Re in Excel

In 2020 we looked at Case numbers of COVID-19 worldwide using data up to 6 August 2020. Data by country/region daily was in 28,800 rows in an Excel 2010 spreadsheet. We used initially this methodology to estimate daily increases, r, over five-day intervals: C and r are the case numbers and value for r (daily…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Re = r^2.5?

We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 worldwide for infectious diseases where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. We now consider that Re = r^2.5 where Re is the effective reproduction rate. In New Zealand in the initial COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak in 2020…

The rise in case numbers for infectious diseases

In this post we look at the potential rise in case numbers for major infectious diseases. In our last post we considered Ro = r^2.5 where Ro is the number of people one person may infect when there is no immunity and r is the rise in case numbers over a short period near the…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Ro = r^2.5?

We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. In New Zealand in the initial outbreak r = 1.4 and hence we estimate now that Ro = 1.4 ^ 2.5. See: COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ Is Ro…

COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ Is Ro close to r^2.5?

In this post we consider if Ro ~ r^2.5 In the past we have considered a decrease of 1/r each day where r is a daily increase early in an outbreak. We have also considered a daily decrease of a factor of x. We now combine both of these considerations. For background and definitions see…

COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ May Ro be at least r^2.5?

Given a daily increase of r early in an outbreak we consider if Ro is at least r^2.5. In our previous we obtained this graph: COVIDgraph1 We now add the graph of r^2.5 We see this light blue curve is close to the red curve. We consider that Ro is at least r^2.5. Ro may…

COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ How many people may one person infect on average?

We refine results from a formula we developed early in 2020 when COVID-19 (originally called Coronavirus) for estimating Ro, the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average when there is no immunity or isolation. The formula assumed that with a daily increase in infections of r, infections would decrease daily over…