NZ Coronavirus Cases:
New Zealand continues to be very lucky. The curve has now flattened. However the number of deaths since last Thursday (when we only had one death) is concerning. NZ now has 9 deaths. The increase in the number of cluster (to 15) is also concerning.
On 6 April we used New Zealand, Australian, and Norway data to estimate the total number of cases and deaths in New Zealand. Please see the assumptions:
‘We now have a case estimate range from 1350 and 2700 cases.
‘From the above tables we get an estimate for the number of deaths from 12 to 34 for 2700 cases and 6 to 17 for 1350 cases.’
‘We adopt the estimated range of 1500 to 3000 cases (adding 10% extra to allow for the tail).’
At that time NZ only had 1 death. This became 2 last Friday, 4 on Saturday, 5 on Monday, and 9 on Tuesday (yesterday).
Below are updated graphs:
Australia continues to have 2 deaths per 1 Million population (as does China).
New Zealand has a population of about 5 million people.
This would suggest NZ deaths at 5 x 2 = 10 deaths.
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