COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze ~ Introduction

Summer Daze Foreign virus exchange Our new normal is strange The halcyon Days don’t begin COVID’s made a great change Alan Grace 29 May 2020 COVID-19 has changed the world. This site documents my journey and my attempts to use (relatively) simple mathematics (that hopefully a good high school student may be able to follow)…

COVID Odyssey: March Equinox ~ The Odyssey

March Equinox March passed milestone equinox Spoiled soiled world embroiled on rocks Dark nights groan longer Virus grows stronger Locks, stocks, and clocks feel the shocks Akan Grace 30 May 2020 This post contains annotations for some of my COVID-19 posts. The complete (numbered) index (Contents) can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/my-covid-odyssey-by-alan-grace/ The posts with the…

COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves ~ Quest complete?

Autumn Leaves Fall leaves in Autumn May peace and rest come Soon in June Cries to moon Spoiled soiled world numb Alan Grace 30 May 2020 New Zealand has not had any new cases of COVID-19 for the last six days. We have a total of 1504 cases and 22 deaths. 1500 cases was the…

COVID-19: Methods of Analysis

In this post we shall look at ways experts analyse the spread of COVID-19. My own mathematical techniques are simple but have produced some surprising results. Analysis can quite often involve solving systems of differential equations (see below). How Ro is estimated ‘A typical epidemiological model by which R0 is estimated is based on three…

COVID-19 NZ Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser! Talk about Snail Mail!

====================================================================== Update: ====================================================================== Sadly Pet Depot is no longer providing good service. Cat food ordered on 2 July was not ready for the courier to pick up until 10 July- over a week! Today (14 July) we are still waiting for the food to be delivered 😦 ====================================================================== CourierPost is the Latest Loser: 18 days…

COVID Odyssey. COVID-19 NZ: [In NZ Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6?] See Update: Re~5.8 & Ro~6

COVID Odyssey COVID-19 in New Zealand Findings Alan Neil Grace [Updates will be available soon only in an ebook; Contact Alan Grace for details about the ebook] Introduction [Ro ~ 3, 4 or 6?] See Update: Re ~ 5.8 and Ro ~ 6 Please read this update (accept original results): Welcome Search Results for “windup”…

COVID-19 NZ: Is Ro < 3? Is Ro = 5.4 feasible?

We continue investigating the value of R0 and Re in New Zealand and overseas. We will look at [excerpts from] this article: taaa021 (Click to view PDF): The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus published 13 February 2020, obtained from here: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319 (Journal of Travel Medicine, Volume 27, Issue 2, March…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V

We look again in this post at using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate cases numbers in New Zealand. In the previous post we concluded that an infected person could infect other people for two cycles. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/ This suggested that a Fibonacci sequence could work to estimate case numbers. In the post we also saw…

COVID-19 NZ: Tracer design and implementation seriously flawed. Create your own QR code for free.

Tracer suggestions Upon reflection please change our selections Our objections are sound please make corrections COVID has slowed help lighten our load Let us download our own QR code Now follow directions of our suggestions Alan Grace 23 May 2020 Special offers: Create a QR code for free (instructions below) Get my first hour of…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 others?

In this post we investigate to see if one person with COVID-19 can infect 2.7 other people on average. Note: R, Ro, and Re are used for the number of people than can be infected by one person (the number of new cases infected by one person). Ro (called R-zero or R-nought) is used when…

COVID-19 NZ: Would the number of cases be double if L4 had been delayed one week?

New Zealand went into Lockdown Level 4 (L4) at 11.59 pm on Wednesday 25 March. In this post we analyse what may have happened if L4 had been delayed one week. We find a curve that fits the total number of cases. First we look at the ratios of the total number of cases (see…

COVID-19: NZ introduces NZ COVID Tracer App; Worldwide 5,000,000 cases, 325,000 deaths & 2,000,000 recovered

NZ COVID Tracer Is Tracer a trojan horse Not introduced by brute force But deviously by stealth By The Ministry of Health Developed more in due course Alan Grace 21 May 2020 New Zealand has introduced a very lightweight App (a digital diary). The app uses QR codes to store where you have been. All…

COVID-19 NZ: Could NZ have had over 4,000 cases early in April?

We look to see how many cases New Zealand may have had if the county had not gone into Lockdown Level 4 on Wednesday 25 March at 11.59 pm. We continue to look at the model used in the two previous posts. The model is very simplistic. We note that New Zealand had a total…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect almost three others?

We look again at the model in the previous post: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/18/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-6-others/ We consider if for most of March one person could on average infect almost three other people. We see that the model below underestimates the actual spread in New Zealand for most of March. While cases were isolated in New Zealand once they were…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?

We investigate to see if in New Zealand one person may infect 2.6 others. We consider again this image: Source: New York Times. How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)? If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people…

COVID-19 NZ: Flattening the curve

We continue the previous post and apply the results to the real number of cases in New Zealand. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/covid-19-nz-could-the-results-in-this-model-occur/ Applying yesterday’s analysis to the actual situation in New Zealand, we obtain the graph  below using r = 0.191982638, 1,505 cases in total, and midpoint of 752.5 cases at 34.5 Days (April 1-2). We note…

COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?

The New Zealand Ministry of Health (MOH) commissioned a number of reports in February and March this year. One report states that 27,600 would be expected to die in a worst case scenario. Could this have occurred? This post considers that report which produced the following results for a worst case scenario: “Results: In this…

COVID-19 USA: Are any days of the week consistently high or low?

I heard a rumour earlier this week that Sunday in the USA had consistently low values (perhaps because it was in the weekend?). We look to see if any days of the week (Monday to Sunday) have consistently high or low values. We use data from here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data For the number of confirmed Cases: Note:…

COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!

At 11.59 last night, New Zealand moved down to Lockdown Level 2. Below is what I wrote in the first few days of level 4 Lockdown: My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/? I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

COVID-19 NZ, USA, China: When is the midpoint? When will an outbreak be over?

Our final fate What day may be the end date For this bad COVID outbreak In case numbers augment They say add ten percent What may be the sad death-rate Alan Grace 13 May 2020 In this post we investigate how long it will be until an outbreak is over and the total number of…

COVID-19 USA Cases and Death total: What a difference a day makes!

Occam’s Razor When you put it to the test Occam’s Razor we suggest Is the one stressed you  knew You may truly pursue The simplest answer’s the best Alan Grace 12 May 2020 We look at yesterday’s USA deaths: It now looks like there is a midpoint around 21 – 23 April. We use the…

Stay Away.

Originally posted on Bits of things that pop into this mind.:
Your not welcomed in my thoughts. Stay away from my world. Out of my head. Leave my dreams in peace. Better yet, You dare step in. I’ll entertain that handsome grin. Leave you with a few memories. Make you feel my pain. In exchange,…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives Death number I always wondered US COVID may have plundered Months from now could we count the cost How many thousand would be lost Two hundred if Trump has blundered Alan Grace 10 May 2020 Alan Grace 10 May 2020 In this post we extend the work of the previous post…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of confirmed cases exceed 3 million?

In this post we look at the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the USA. This week the number of confirmed cases was more than 1.2 million two days ago. The data has not been checked. There is a suspiciously high value on 26 April. This value appeared in two data sets from…

COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for Australia confirmed cases: Below we…

COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for NZ cases: We expect the…

COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases

We have generated a number of estimates for the number of cases. Before generating estimates for future cases and the total number of cases we first have to find the midpoint for the actual number of cases. Otherwise we will not know when to “flip” our (cumulative) estimates generated up to the midpoint to create…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers IV

We continue the work done in previous posts to estimate (Re**=2) the (final) total number of cases. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/ We noticed in the most recent case that the Fibonacci sequence crossed the actual cumulative case data very close to the midpoint. We conjecture that this crossover point may be used to estimate the (final) total…