COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS¬†menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze ~ Introduction

Summer Daze Foreign virus exchange Our new normal is strange The halcyon Days don’t begin COVID’s made a great change Alan Grace 29 May 2020 COVID-19 has changed the world. This site documents my journey and my attempts to use simple mathematics (that hopefully a good high school student may be able to follow) to…

COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves ~ Quest complete?

Autumn Leaves Fall leaves in Autumn May peace and rest come Soon in June Cries to moon Spoiled soiled world numb Alan Grace 30 May 2020 New Zealand has not had any new cases of COVID-19 for the last six days. We have a total of 1504 cases and 22 deaths. 1500 cases was the…

COVID-19: Methods of Analysis

In this post we shall look at ways experts analyse the spread of COVID-19. My own mathematical techniques are simple but have produced some surprising results. Analysis can quite often involve solving systems of differential equations (see below). How Ro is estimated ‘A typical epidemiological model by which R0 is estimated is based on three…

COVID-19 NZ Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser! Talk about Snail Mail!

====================================================================== Update: ====================================================================== Sadly Pet Depot is no longer providing good service. Cat food ordered on 2 July was not ready for the courier to pick up until 10 July- over a week! Today (14 July) we are still waiting for the food to be delivered ūüė¶ ====================================================================== CourierPost is the Latest Loser: 18 days…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V

We look again in this post at using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate cases numbers in New Zealand. In the previous post we concluded that an infected person could infect other people for two cycles. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/ This suggested that a Fibonacci sequence could work to estimate case numbers. In the post we also saw…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 others?

In this post we investigate to see if one person with COVID-19 can infect 2.7 other people on average. Note: R, Ro, and Re are used for the number of people than can be infected by one person (the number of new cases infected by one person). Ro (called R-zero or R-nought) is used when…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?

We investigate to see if in New Zealand one person may infect 2.6 others. We consider again this image: Source: New York Times. How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)? If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people…

COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?

The New Zealand Ministry of Health (MOH) commissioned a number of reports in February and March this year. One report states that 27,600 would be expected to die in a worst case scenario. Could this have occurred? This post considers that report which produced the following results for a worst case scenario: “Results: In this…

COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!

At 11.59 last night, New Zealand moved down to Lockdown Level 2. Below is what I wrote in the first few days of level 4 Lockdown: My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/? I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

Stay Away.

Originally posted on Bits of things that pop into this mind.:
Your not welcomed in my thoughts. Stay away from my world. Out of my head. Leave my dreams in peace. Better yet, You dare step in. I’ll entertain that handsome grin. Leave you with a few memories. Make you feel my pain. In exchange,…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives Death number I always wondered US COVID may have plundered Months from now could we count the cost How many thousand would be lost Two hundred if Trump has blundered Alan Grace 10 May 2020 Alan Grace 10 May 2020 In this post we extend the work of the previous post…

COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for Australia confirmed cases: Below we…

COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for NZ cases: We expect the…

COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases

We have generated a number of estimates for the number of cases. Before generating estimates for future cases and the total number of cases we first have to find the midpoint for the actual number of cases. Otherwise we will not know when to “flip” our (cumulative) estimates generated up to the midpoint to create…