COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 12 ~ Conclusion~ Ro = 6 to 7.8 in early 2020?

We revisit data for the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. For definitions look at the bottom of this post. Source file: owid-covid-data.xlsx retrieved 7 May 2020 from https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.xlsx Note: Case numbers have been updated from the values in the above table. We see that a daily increase close to r~ 1.5 fits the case…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 10 ~ COVID-19 Delta variant ~ Conclusions 2021

The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to be twice as infectious as the original 2020 outbreak. We have found that Ro for the Delta variant is between 9 and 12.7. Ro is the average number of people once person may infect over a period of n = 10 days when there is no quarantine or…

COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze ~ Introduction

Summer Daze Foreign virus exchange Our new normal is strange The halcyon Days don’t begin COVID’s made a great change Alan Grace 29 May 2020 COVID-19 has changed the world. This site documents my journey and my attempts to use simple mathematics (that hopefully a good high school student may be able to follow) to…

COVID Odyssey: March Equinox ~ The Odyssey

March Equinox March passed milestone equinox Spoiled soiled world embroiled on rocks Dark nights groan longer Virus grows stronger Locks, stocks, and clocks feel the shocks Akan Grace 30 May 2020 This post contains annotations for some of my COVID-19 posts. The complete (numbered) index (Contents) can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/my-covid-odyssey-by-alan-grace/ The posts with the…

COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves ~ Quest complete?

Autumn Leaves Fall leaves in Autumn May peace and rest come Soon in June Cries to moon Spoiled soiled world numb Alan Grace 30 May 2020 New Zealand has not had any new cases of COVID-19 for the last six days. We have a total of 1504 cases and 22 deaths. 1500 cases was the…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 11 ~ COVID-19 ~ Daily decline in infectivity

We have assumed that case numbers increase at a daily rate of r and infectivity decreases daily at a rate of 1/r. This simplifies the formula. However it is possible that infectivity decreases daily at a different rate. Below is a graph showing various rates: Below is data for the graph. Note: values have been…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 9 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Is Ro in the range 9 to 12.7?

The Delta variant of COVID-19 appears to be twice as infectious as the original 2020 outbreak. for the 2020 outbreak we estimated Ro = 6. In previous posts we simulated outbreaks using a value for Ro around 12.7 (actually Ro = SQRT(3)). In this post we consider also Ro = 9 (halfway between 6 and…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 8 ~ COVID- 19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Graphs

We look at graphs of the number of people that may be infected by one person having the Delta variant of COVID-19. The graphs are produced from our simulations for 1778 cases for Day 12 starting with 10 cases on Day 1 and using a daily increase of r = SQRT(3) with an infectious period…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 7 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Simulations

In the previous post we saw that for the Delta variant there could be a daily increase in the number of cases of r = SQRT(3). For background see: COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12? This would give rise to the table below: We see from…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Mostly over the last year we…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 3 ~ Carpe diem 2020 ~ Estimating Ro by simulations

In early 2020 we calculated that there was a daily increase in cases of r = 1.4 and we assumed infectivity decreased by 1/r each day over n = 10 days. We created simulations to estimate Ro, the number of people a person with COVID-19 was likely to infect on average. How do we choose…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 2 ~ In early 2020 can one person infect 4 or 6 others on average?

Ro is the number of people that on average one person with COVID-19 may infect. Early in 2020 we arrived at the following table for calculating Ro: Before the above table we used this formula and table: Which gives the more realistic results? We know from our analysis that a 5-day cycle produces the best…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…

COVID Odyssey: China Odyssey ~ Comparing cases in China with New Zealand in 2020 ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:
In 2020, We found that in New Zealand given a a 10-day infectious period, and a daily increase in COVID-19 infections of r = 1.4, one person with COVID-19 may infect on average 4.14 other people and for a 15-day infectious…

COVID Odyssey: Winter warning ~ Summary 2020 revisited ~ Daily cases and how many people one person may infect on average?

In 2020, We found that in New Zealand given a a 10-day infectious period, and a daily increase in COVID-19 infections of r = 1.4, one person with COVID-19 may infect on average 4.14 other people and for a 15-day infectious period, one infected person may infect around 6 other people. We extend our previous…

Bitcoin close to half as China ramps up Crypto clamp down

Bitcoin Falls as China Clamps Down 🇨🇳 Bitcoin fell to lows of $31,780.79 on Monday amid fears that a crypto crackdown launched by China is going to be even harsher than first feared. Beijing summoned a number of banks and urged them to ramp up efforts to identify those participating in crypto transactions. At the…

COVID Odyssey: Borty’s First Jab

Borty’s First Jab Quite long in the tooth Certainly not in his youth Borty got the call for his jab He arrived at the place And then had to face A sight that he found rather sad The folks there were old Just like he’d been told But surely much older than he He was…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs and let COVID die away

Let COVID die away [My Way] And now, the end is near And so I face the final curtain My friend, I’ll say it clear I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain I’ve lived a life that’s full I’ve traveled each and every highway Oh, and more, much more than this [Got my last…

COVID Odyssey: The never-ending epic poem ~ B. McNabb lives to get the jab

B. McNabb lives to get the jab Forget what you may last have read Borty McNabb is not yet dead Forget what’s in the poem Borty is still at home Regardless what Alan has said Hope his fame won’t go to his head! He writes not like Ovid He won’t die of COVID What decisions…

COVID Odyssey: My response to Borty’s poem ~ The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!

Originally posted on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey:
The Man Like A Dog With A Bone! There was once a fella called Grace Who worked at a furious pace, Using maths so darned hard And poems like a bard He inspired the whole human race With Covid running amok…

COVID Odyssey: How many people may one person infect in early 2020? ~ The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!

The Man Like A Dog With A Bone! There was once a fella called Grace Who worked at a furious pace, Using maths so darned hard And poems like a bard He inspired the whole human race With Covid running amok And humans all running on luck Alan showed Ro Was double WHO thought And…

COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~ Summary 2020 revisited ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Ro Will your search for R-Nought Still forever be fraught Will we still wonder It’ll be under ‘Til true value be sought Alan Grace 9 September 2020 In 2020, We found that for a 10-day infectious period, given a daily increase in COVID-19 infections of r = 1.4, one person with COVID-19 may infect on…

COVID-19 Resthome Care NZ: Happy Mother’s day Mum

Happy Mother’s Day Mum. The issues we have with mum’s resthome care may not just be because of COVID-19. Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service aka SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents and Poor Real Estate Customer Service On this page we will be looking at: SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service My mother (94) is in Lynton Lodge,…

May the 4th be with you

May the 4th be with you [and not with the evil Covid-19] https://giphy.com/explore/may-the-4th Alan Grace May the 4th be with you in 2021 Shared Posts (Pingbacks) – Share Your Best Posts (wordpress.com)

COVID-19 – SHIPRECS: Lynton Lodge Resthome (NZ)

Originally posted on SHIPRECS:
Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service aka SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents and Poor Real Estate Customer Service On this page we will be looking at: SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service My mother (94) is in Lynton Lodge, a resthome in New Zealand with hosital level care. Mum has dementia (not Alzheimers). She…

SHIPRECS – COVID-19 increases house prices in New Zealand; Incidents increase too as customer service falls!

Originally posted on SHIPRECS:
Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents in Personal Real Estate Customer Service Historically many ships were tossed upon stormy seas, got into trouble, ran aground or onto the rocks, and became shipwrecks. On this site I outline my bad experiences (my SHIPRECS) with real estate salespeople in New…

COVID Odyssey: Misinformation Game ~ Avoid spreading false and misleading information

COVID misinformation It’s a shame for you to be the blame Spreading misinformation is lame Do not let lies spiral Or let them go viral Learn now to play the Go Viral Game Alan Grace 10 October 2020 ABOUT WHAT IS GO VIRAL! GO VIRAL! is a 5-minute game that helps protect you against COVID-19…

COVID Odyssey: [Pre-]Summer Summary ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Ro Will your search for R-Nought Still forever be fraught Will we still wonder It’ll be under ‘Til true value be sought Alan Grace 9 September 2020 For COVID-19 we assume 5-day cycles with one cycle for the pre-symptomatic incubation period and a two-cycle (10-day) symptomatic infectious period. Also see: COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~…

COVID Odyssey: Don’t underestimate Ro ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Ro Will your search for R-NoughtStill forever be fraughtWill we still wonderIt’ll be under‘Til true value be sought Alan Grace9 September 2020 In New Zealand we find Ro ~ 4.1 (4.143238) with a 10-day infectious period. We find 10-day moving averages work well to help confirm the value for Ro (~ 4.1) given a daily…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation

CSAW The CSAW simulationNeeds no more validationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek neat explanation Alan Grace8 September 2020 We provide an explanation of the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). Please also see:COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ formulation verification First we randomly simulate an outbreak of COVID-19. Once we have…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification

CSAW The CSAW formulationNeeds more verificationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek a neat foundation Alan Grace5 September 2020 We look at the formula that we developed from the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). We establish a table to verify the formula and use the table to confirmRo for New Zealand. We issue…

COVID Odyssey Ro Update: Occam’s Razor ~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?

We Investigate whether in New Zealand Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6 and calculate values using a formula for Ro worldwide. Based on a daily increase in cases of r = 1.4 (40%), modelling is used to determine the best value for Ro. You may also like to look at: COVID Odyssey: [Pre-]Summer Summary~ How…

COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition

Spain appears at or near the top in almost all of our worldwide lists. See:COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country? Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?…

COVID Odyssey: OZ Adventure ~ COVID OdOZy

We look at the outbreak of COVID-19 in Australia. Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? For background, please look at:COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How…

COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)

Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? We look at the spread of COVID-19 in the 12 worst-affected African countries and look at this article published 16 July 2020:Africas40249-020-00718-y The 12 African countries are (alphabetically):AlgeriaCameroonEgyptGhanaKenyaMaliMauritaniaMoroccoNigeriaSenegalSouth AfricaSudan We…

COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?

Please read Updates:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windupCOVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4COVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4rCOVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4r We estimate Ro (see below) by applying the analysis undertaken in New Zealand to the rest of the world. Note that data for the analysis below is for confirmed cases…

COVID Odyssey: Matariki, Maori New Year ~ New Dawning

COVID Matariki Matariki day morning Sun and the new year dawning An R-zero of six May I throw in the mix Six times more passings mourning Alan Grace 17 July 2020 Many in New Zealand are currently celebrating Matariki, the Maori New Year. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matariki https://www.kiwifamilies.co.nz/articles/matariki-maori-new-year/ https://www.tepapa.govt.nz/discover-collections/read-watch-play/maori/matariki-maori-new-year/what-matariki Sadly no-one from New Zealand appears to have…

COVID Odyssey: Independence Day 4 July ~ May we stay [virus] free

Originally posted on Piper's Adventures:
What a glorious day to think about Independence the blessings and privileges that have come my way ? Freedom of thought and of things to share the right to agree or disagree about the things we care ? Freedom to move about to see and enjoy this great land…

COVID Odyssey: Deep Spring Clean ~ When will the next wave come?

Sick to death of Gutenberg How long ’til Gutenberg’s due WordPress please give me a clue We will need a strong pill Delay’s making me ill Guess it’s now long overdue Alan Grace 24 June 2020 This page has been set up early before the new WordPress editor (Gutenberg) is forced upon me. It is…

COVID Odyssey: Mid-Winter Christmas Cheer ~ Odyssey Completed

Christmas is in summer in New Zealand so many people celebrate a mid-winter Christmas in July. My COVID-19 work is my gift to you all. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/27/covid-19-nz-is-re-5-3782/ We have received an early Christmas present. New Zealand has only have 22 deaths from COVID-19, a total of 1504 cases (none active), and no new cases for…

COVID-19: Methods of Analysis

In this post we shall look at ways experts analyse the spread of COVID-19. My own mathematical techniques are simple but have produced some surprising results. Analysis can quite often involve solving systems of differential equations (see below). How Ro is estimated ‘A typical epidemiological model by which R0 is estimated is based on three…

COVID-19 NZ Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser! Talk about Snail Mail!

====================================================================== Update: ====================================================================== Sadly Pet Depot is no longer providing good service. Cat food ordered on 2 July was not ready for the courier to pick up until 10 July- over a week! Today (14 July) we are still waiting for the food to be delivered 😦 ====================================================================== CourierPost is the Latest Loser: 18 days…

COVID Odyssey. COVID-19 NZ: [In NZ Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? See Update] Re~5.8 & Ro~6?

COVID Odyssey COVID-19 in New Zealand Findings Alan Neil Grace [Updates will be available soon only in an ebook; Contact Alan Grace for details about the ebook] Introduction [Ro ~ 3, 4 or 6? See Update] Re ~ 5.8 and Ro ~ 6? Please read update (accept original results): Search Results for “windup” – COVID…

COVID-19 NZ: Is Ro < 3? Is Ro = 5.4 feasible?

We continue investigating the value of R0 and Re in New Zealand and overseas. We will look at [excerpts from] this article: taaa021 (Click to view PDF): The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus published 13 February 2020, obtained from here: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319 (Journal of Travel Medicine, Volume 27, Issue 2, March…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V

We look again in this post at using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate cases numbers in New Zealand. In the previous post we concluded that an infected person could infect other people for two cycles. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/ This suggested that a Fibonacci sequence could work to estimate case numbers. In the post we also saw…

COVID-19 NZ: Tracer design and implementation seriously flawed. Create your own QR code for free.

Tracer suggestions Upon reflection please change our selections Our objections are sound please make corrections COVID has slowed help lighten our load Let us download our own QR code Now follow directions of our suggestions Alan Grace 23 May 2020 Special offers: Create a QR code for free (instructions below) Get my first hour of…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 others?

In this post we investigate to see if one person with COVID-19 can infect 2.7 other people on average. Note: R, Ro, and Re are used for the number of people than can be infected by one person (the number of new cases infected by one person). Ro (called R-zero or R-nought) is used when…

COVID-19 NZ: Would the number of cases be double if L4 had been delayed one week?

New Zealand went into Lockdown Level 4 (L4) at 11.59 pm on Wednesday 25 March. In this post we analyse what may have happened if L4 had been delayed one week. We find a curve that fits the total number of cases. First we look at the ratios of the total number of cases (see…

COVID-19: NZ introduces NZ COVID Tracer App; Worldwide 5,000,000 cases, 325,000 deaths & 2,000,000 recovered

NZ COVID Tracer Is Tracer a trojan horse Not introduced by brute force But deviously by stealth By The Ministry of Health Developed more in due course Alan Grace 21 May 2020 New Zealand has introduced a very lightweight App (a digital diary). The app uses QR codes to store where you have been. All…

COVID-19 NZ: Could NZ have had over 4,000 cases early in April?

We look to see how many cases New Zealand may have had if the county had not gone into Lockdown Level 4 on Wednesday 25 March at 11.59 pm. We continue to look at the model used in the two previous posts. The model is very simplistic. We note that New Zealand had a total…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect almost three others?

We look again at the model in the previous post: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/18/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-6-others/ We consider if for most of March one person could on average infect almost three other people. We see that the model below underestimates the actual spread in New Zealand for most of March. While cases were isolated in New Zealand once they were…

COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?

We investigate to see if in New Zealand one person may infect 2.6 others. We consider again this image: Source: New York Times. How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)? If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people…

COVID-19 NZ: Flattening the curve

We continue the previous post and apply the results to the real number of cases in New Zealand. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/covid-19-nz-could-the-results-in-this-model-occur/ Applying yesterday’s analysis to the actual situation in New Zealand, we obtain the graph below using r = 0.191982638, 1,505 cases in total, and midpoint of 752.5 cases at 34.5 Days (April 1-2). We note…

COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?

The New Zealand Ministry of Health (MOH) commissioned a number of reports in February and March this year. One report states that 27,600 would be expected to die in a worst case scenario. Could this have occurred? This post considers that report which produced the following results for a worst case scenario: “Results: In this…

COVID-19 USA: Are any days of the week consistently high or low?

I heard a rumour earlier this week that Sunday in the USA had consistently low values (perhaps because it was in the weekend?). We look to see if any days of the week (Monday to Sunday) have consistently high or low values. We use data from here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data For the number of confirmed Cases: Note:…

COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!

At 11.59 last night, New Zealand moved down to Lockdown Level 2. Below is what I wrote in the first few days of level 4 Lockdown: My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/? I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

COVID-19 NZ, USA, China: When is the midpoint? When will an outbreak be over?

Our final fate What day may be the end date For this bad COVID outbreak In case numbers augment They say add ten percent What may be the sad death-rate Alan Grace 13 May 2020 In this post we investigate how long it will be until an outbreak is over and the total number of…

COVID-19 USA Cases and Death total: What a difference a day makes!

Occam’s Razor When you put it to the test Occam’s Razor we suggest Is the one stressed you knew You may truly pursue The simplest answer’s the best Alan Grace 12 May 2020 We look at yesterday’s USA deaths: It now looks like there is a midpoint around 21 – 23 April. We use the…

Stay Away.

Originally posted on Bits of things that pop into this mind.:
Your not welcomed in my thoughts. Stay away from my world. Out of my head. Leave my dreams in peace. Better yet, You dare step in. I’ll entertain that handsome grin. Leave you with a few memories. Make you feel my pain. In exchange,…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives Death number I always wondered US COVID may have plundered Months from now could we count the cost How many thousand would be lost Two hundred if Trump has blundered Alan Grace 10 May 2020 Alan Grace 10 May 2020 In this post we extend the work of the previous post…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of confirmed cases exceed 3 million?

In this post we look at the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the USA. This week the number of confirmed cases was more than 1.2 million two days ago. The data has not been checked. There is a suspiciously high value on 26 April. This value appeared in two data sets from…

COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for Australia confirmed cases: Below we…

COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for NZ cases: We expect the…

COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases

We have generated a number of estimates for the number of cases. Before generating estimates for future cases and the total number of cases we first have to find the midpoint for the actual number of cases. Otherwise we will not know when to “flip” our (cumulative) estimates generated up to the midpoint to create…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers IV

We continue the work done in previous posts to estimate (Re**=2) the (final) total number of cases. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/ We noticed in the most recent case that the Fibonacci sequence crossed the actual cumulative case data very close to the midpoint. We conjecture that this crossover point may be used to estimate the (final) total…

COVID-19: 1,000,000 recovered. These may not have immunity.

Lucky million A million fully recovered COVID wonderfully smothered It’s not absurd Close to one third Hope many will be discovered Alan Grace 30 April 2020 Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:35 GMT Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Symptoms – Incubation – Transmission – News Coronavirus Cases: 3,219,424 Deaths: 228,197 Recovered: 1,000,293 view by country Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:56 GMT: Country, Total Total…

Helicopter money

Helicopter money debate Helicopter money is moot Fifteen hundred dollars of loot Is this money really Distributed fairly I want my golden parachute Alan Grace 27 April 2020 Helicopter money is money that is given away to (almost) all residents in the country. One possible option is to distribute $1500 to every adult resident in…

COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?

COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantic tricks Dirty politics Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 Previous version: COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantics Just dirty tricks Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 New Zealand has claimed we have eliminated COVID-19. This does not…

COVID-19 NZ: We are down to Level 3 Lockdown. Keep your Bubble exclusive and small!

Threedom The Herald calls L3 Threedom This seems more cheesy than edam Please keep your Bubble small For no virus at all Hope L2 gives us more freedom Alan Grace 28 April 2020 Keep your Bubble small Double your Bubble Score will redouble Twice would be nice Four times not thrice You’re in more…