COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation

CSAW The CSAW simulationNeeds no more validationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek neat explanation Alan Grace8 September 2020 We provide an explanation of the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model).  Please also see:COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ formulation verification First we randomly simulate an outbreak of COVID-19. Once we have…

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COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification

CSAW The CSAW formulationNeeds more verificationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek a neat foundation Alan Grace5 September 2020 We look at the formula that we developed from the CSAW (COVID-19  Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). We establish a table to verify the formula and use the table to confirmRo for New Zealand. We issue…

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COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition

Spain appears at or near the top in almost all of our worldwide lists. See:COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country? Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?…

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COVID Odyssey: OZ Adventure ~ COVID OdOZy

We look at the outbreak of COVID-19 in Australia. Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? For background, please look at:COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How…

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COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)

Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? We look at the spread of COVID-19 in the 12 worst-affected African countries and look at this article published 16 July 2020:Africas40249-020-00718-y The 12 African countries are (alphabetically):AlgeriaCameroonEgyptGhanaKenyaMaliMauritaniaMoroccoNigeriaSenegalSouth AfricaSudan We…

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COVID Odyssey: Deep Spring Clean ~ When will the next wave come?

Sick to death of Gutenberg How long ’til Gutenberg’s due WordPress please give me a clue We will need a strong pill Delay’s making me ill Guess it’s now long overdue Alan Grace 24 June 2020 This page has been set up early before the new WordPress editor (Gutenberg) is forced upon me. It is…

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COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from here: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below). Please read Update: COVID Odyssey…

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COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze ~ Introduction

Summer Daze Foreign virus exchange Our new normal is strange The halcyon Days don’t begin COVID’s made a great change Alan Grace 29 May 2020 COVID-19 has changed the world. This site documents my journey and my attempts to use simple mathematics (that hopefully a good high school student may be able to follow) to…

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COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves ~ Quest complete?

Autumn Leaves Fall leaves in Autumn May peace and rest come Soon in June Cries to moon Spoiled soiled world numb Alan Grace 30 May 2020 New Zealand has not had any new cases of COVID-19 for the last six days. We have a total of 1504 cases and 22 deaths. 1500 cases was the…

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COVID Odyssey: Matariki, Maori New Year ~ New Dawning

COVID Matariki Matariki day morning Sun and the new year dawning An R-zero of six May I throw in the mix Six times more passings mourning Alan Grace 17 July 2020 Many in New Zealand are currently celebrating Matariki, the Maori New Year. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matariki https://www.kiwifamilies.co.nz/articles/matariki-maori-new-year/ https://www.tepapa.govt.nz/discover-collections/read-watch-play/maori/matariki-maori-new-year/what-matariki Sadly no-one from New Zealand appears to have…

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COVID-19: Methods of Analysis

In this post we shall look at ways experts analyse the spread of COVID-19. My own mathematical techniques are simple but have produced some surprising results. Analysis can quite often involve solving systems of differential equations (see below). How Ro is estimated ‘A typical epidemiological model by which R0 is estimated is based on three…

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COVID-19 NZ Couriers: The Tortoise, The Hare, and the Snail; CourierPost is the Latest Loser! Talk about Snail Mail!

====================================================================== Update: ====================================================================== Sadly Pet Depot is no longer providing good service. Cat food ordered on 2 July was not ready for the courier to pick up until 10 July- over a week! Today (14 July) we are still waiting for the food to be delivered 😦 ====================================================================== CourierPost is the Latest Loser: 18 days…

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COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V

We look again in this post at using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate cases numbers in New Zealand. In the previous post we concluded that an infected person could infect other people for two cycles. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/ This suggested that a Fibonacci sequence could work to estimate case numbers. In the post we also saw…

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COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.7 others?

In this post we investigate to see if one person with COVID-19 can infect 2.7 other people on average. Note: R, Ro, and Re are used for the number of people than can be infected by one person (the number of new cases infected by one person). Ro (called R-zero or R-nought) is used when…

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COVID-19 NZ: Can one person infect 2.6 others?

We investigate to see if in New Zealand one person may infect 2.6 others. We consider again this image: Source: New York Times. How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)? If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people…

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COVID-19 NZ: Could the results in this model occur?

The New Zealand Ministry of Health (MOH) commissioned a number of reports in February and March this year. One report states that 27,600 would be expected to die in a worst case scenario. Could this have occurred? This post considers that report which produced the following results for a worst case scenario: “Results: In this…

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COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!

At 11.59 last night, New Zealand moved down to Lockdown Level 2. Below is what I wrote in the first few days of level 4 Lockdown: My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/? I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

Stay Away.

Originally posted on Bits of things that pop into this mind.:
Your not welcomed in my thoughts. Stay away from my world. Out of my head. Leave my dreams in peace. Better yet, You dare step in. I’ll entertain that handsome grin. Leave you with a few memories. Make you feel my pain. In exchange,…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives Death number I always wondered US COVID may have plundered Months from now could we count the cost How many thousand would be lost Two hundred if Trump has blundered Alan Grace 10 May 2020 Alan Grace 10 May 2020 In this post we extend the work of the previous post…

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COVID-19 AU: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for Australia confirmed cases: Below we…

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COVID-19 NZ: Predictions using 7-Day Moving Averages

In this post we look at using 7-day moving averages to estimate the midpoint and total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand. A 7-day moving average adds together the number of new cases for the last seven days then divides the total by seven. Below is a bar-chart for NZ cases: We expect the…

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COVID-19 NZ: Estimating the midpoint and the number of cases

We have generated a number of estimates for the number of cases. Before generating estimates for future cases and the total number of cases we first have to find the midpoint for the actual number of cases. Otherwise we will not know when to “flip” our (cumulative) estimates generated up to the midpoint to create…

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COVID-19: 1,000,000 recovered. These may not have immunity.

Lucky million A million fully recovered COVID wonderfully smothered It’s not absurd Close to one third Hope many will be discovered Alan Grace 30 April 2020 Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:35 GMT Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Symptoms – Incubation – Transmission – News Coronavirus Cases: 3,219,424 Deaths: 228,197 Recovered: 1,000,293 view by country Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:56 GMT: Country, Total Total…

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Helicopter money

Helicopter money debate Helicopter money is moot Fifteen hundred dollars of loot Is this money really Distributed fairly I want my golden parachute Alan Grace 27 April 2020 Helicopter money is money that is given away to (almost) all residents in the country. One possible option is to distribute $1500 to every adult resident in…

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COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?

COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantic tricks Dirty politics Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 Previous version: COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantics Just dirty tricks Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 New Zealand has claimed we have eliminated COVID-19. This does not…

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COVID-19: Can NZ do contact-tracing effectively quickly enough?

A little list A contact list What is the gist Who did you see Near recently Take care none missed Alan Grace 24 April 2020 Remember to keep a list of all your contacts to assist with contact-tracing in case you or someone you have been in contact with get infected. Contract-tracing should ideally be…

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A week until L3

L3 in a week A week at L4 Who would hope for more What a great cost Cope with jobs lost Firms could close their door Alan Grace 21 April 2020 New Zealand was due to end four weeks of Level 4 Lockdown tomorrow night (Wednesday). This was extended until 11.59 Monday when we will…

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COVID-19 cases reach 2,000,000; 125,000+ deaths; almost 485,000 recovered. How about NZ?

On April 15, 2020, 05:10 GMT: Coronavirus Cases: 2,000,065 Deaths: 126,754 Recovered: 484,597 NZ Coronavirus Cases: 1,386 NZ Deaths: 9 Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Incubation –Symptoms – News view by country New Zealand continues to be very lucky. The curve has now flattened. However the number of deaths since last Thursday (when we only had one death) is concerning. NZ now…

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NZ COVID-19: NZ has its second death

Isaiah 26:20 Go, my people, enter your rooms and shut the doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until his wrath has passed by. Sadly New Zealand announced its second COVID-19-related death today. A slight increase in the number of cases (44) today, up from 29 yesterday. We now have a total of…

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COVID-19: Proof that 5 April was NZ COVID-19 midpoint. NZ should not come out of Level 4 Lockdown for 4 extra weeks!

The graph below is visual “proof” that New Zealand case numbers reached the midpoint on 5 April! =========================================================================== Update: For my conclusions at the Lockdown midpoint (posted on 9 April), please see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/04/09/nz-covid-19-conclusions-at-initial-lockdown-midpoint-nz-should-stay-at-level-4-lockdown-for-an-extra-4-weeks/ =========================================================================== We conclude that Level 4 Lockdown should continue until at least 14 May even if the peak/midpoint may be earlier than…

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COVID-19 NZ: How many cases and deaths may we expect?

We look at the number of cases and deaths for New Zealand, Australia, and Norway to estimate the possible total number of cases and deaths in New Zealand. ================================================================== Update: Proof that 5 April was NZ COVID-19 midpoint. NZ should not come out of Level 4 Lockdown for 4 extra weeks! See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/04/07/covid-19-nz-ii-how-many-cases-and-deaths-may-we-expect-when-should-nz-come-out-of-level-4-lockdown/ ================================================================== In…

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COVID-19: Deaths compared with China

The graph below shows the total number of deaths compared with China (3,322 deaths). Vertical scale shows multiples of China’s deaths. ‘Rest’ means the rest of the world. Total number of deaths = 58,110. My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand I share…

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COVID-19: NZ is doing well

NZ is doing well New Zealand is doing extremely well Is the lockdown working how can we tell? Our cases are fine They form a straight line Despite people being stupid as hell Alan Grace 4 April 2020 Please be considerate of other people when you are on foot on the road or footpath. We…

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COVID-19 worldwide: Over 1 million cases; 50,000 deaths; 200,000 recovered

NZ’s cases currently linear If I may be dogmatic China’s deaths deemed quadratic Results seemed very clear COVID Evidence there NZ’s may not stay static Alan Grace 2 April 2020 Earlier version: NZ’s cases currently linear If I may be dogmatic China’s deaths were quadratic The results are there Evidence is clear NZ’s may not…

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Cat’s rack

Cat’s rack II Please do not be taken aback Cat likes to drink wine from her rack Her wine bra is wearable No one’s fine mind bearable Show us your rack or get flak back. Alan Grace 2 April 2020 Original version: Cat’s rack Please do not be taken aback Cat likes to drink wine…

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COVID-19: NZ Cases currently linear

NZ COVID-19 Cases Linear NZ Cases form a straight line If this were the norm would be fine What will be our fate How long will we wait Until the graph is not divine Alan Grace 2 April 2020 New Zealand COVID-19 Cases (Cumulative) are currently linear (a straight line). This is the best possible…

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