Could your country have more than 10,000 cases of COVID-19?

Self-isolate

Caught the flu do not roam
Lock your door stay at home
Do not delay
For a short day
Pray we’re not shocked as Rome

Alan Grace
11 March 2020

Previous version:

Self-isolate

With the flu do not roam
Lock your door stay at home
Do not delay
For a short day
Pray we won’t be like Rome

Alan Grace
11 March 2020

Which version do you prefer?

Italy now has over 10,000 (10,149) cases of COVID-19 and 631 deaths resulting from this.

I live in New Zealand.

What are the chances of my country or your country having over 10,000 cases of COVID-19?

My posts can be found here:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

Data for my posts can be found at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The answer may depend on how quickly you self-isolate if you have flu-like symptoms.

If you delay self-isolation once you have symptoms for even one day, you may infect others.

If enough people do not self-isolate quickly enough, we could end up like Italy.

The infection rate for COVID-19 is not known.

In just one day it may be possible for one person to infect 2.6 others. These people may be strangers.

I guess you can see how important a single day’s delay may be.

The infection rate for COVID-19 is not known.

How can a Coronavirus (COVID-19) out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)?

We assume each cycle takes 6 days (time from being infected to becoming infectious).

If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others, then 5 people could be sick after 1 Cycle, 18 people after 2 Cycles, 52 people after 3 Cycles and so on. See:
https://towardsdatascience.com/how-bad-will-the-coronavirus-outbreak-get-predicting-the-outbreak-figures-f0b8e8b61991

The sequence starts like this:

5

18

52

140

368

962

2,507

So five people could eventually infect 2,507 people in 7 cycles.

Let’s suppose a country has four gateway cities with an international airport.

A large city could be split in two, say north and south, if your country has less than four gateway cities.

Suppose we have the same sequence in four “cities”.

We could get over 10,000 cases (4 x 2,507) from five people in each of these four cities.

Below is the start of the spread:

Let’s hope no one is sill enough to delay self-isolation.

Alan Grace
11 March 2020

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