COVID Odyssey: Don’t underestimate Ro ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

Ro Will your search for R-NoughtStill forever be fraughtWill we still wonderIt’ll be under‘Til true value be sought Alan Grace9 September 2020 In New Zealand we find Ro ~ 4.1 (4.143238) with a 10-day infectious period. We find 10-day moving averages work well to help confirm the value for Ro (~ 4.1) given a daily…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation

CSAW The CSAW simulationNeeds no more validationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek neat explanation Alan Grace8 September 2020 We provide an explanation of the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model).  Please also see:COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ formulation verification First we randomly simulate an outbreak of COVID-19. Once we have…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification

CSAW The CSAW formulationNeeds more verificationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek a neat foundation Alan Grace5 September 2020 We look at the formula that we developed from the CSAW (COVID-19  Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). We establish a table to verify the formula and use the table to confirmRo for New Zealand. We issue…