COVID-19: NZ should have gone to Level 4 (lockdown) earlier. Worldwide 420,718 cases; 18,800 deaths.

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Alan Grace
24 March 2020

New Zealand goes to level 4 (lockdown) at 11.59 pm NZ time tonight.
This should have happened a week  ago.

The best way to beat a pandemic is to lockdown before there is community transmission (i.e. community COVID-19 transmission with no direct link to travel related transmission).

Sadly New Zealand now has 205 cases a number of which indicate community transmission. This puts us 67th out of 198 countries with cases (based on the number of cases).

Below are updated graphs from a few days ago.

The first graph shows deaths up to today (Day 62; 24 March).

Please look at the legend (key) on the right.

The top curve shows out original formula using a factor of 177.

The bottom curve shows out original formula using a factor of 150.

The actual number of deaths worldwide (red) has fallen below the top curve and is now between these two curves.

The results may be the result of country lockdowns overseas or possibly because for the previous two days the number of deaths in Italy fell.

The bottom graph shows the projected results out to Day 90 (21 April).

Note the colour change for the bottom curve.


The bottom curve lags one day behind the top curve.

By Day 91 both curves will be over 2,000,000.

We can therefore expect the number of deaths by Day 90 to be about 100 times today’s number of deaths.

Please keep everyone safe by abiding by the lockdown to help flatten the curve.

Alan Grace
25 March 2020

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