COVID-19 NZ: Modelling using Fibonacci sequences (Cont)

In this post we will continue using Fibonacci sequences to estimate the number of cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand. For background, please see my previous posts
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/

We will add a lower Fibonacci sequence (Re=2*) to estimate the approach of the midpoint for the number of cases (excluding a long tail).

The only change is in the starting values given in the table below:

Date	Day#	Re=2	Cases	Re*=2
7/03/20	9		5
8/03/20	10		5
9/03/20	11		5
10/03/20	12		5
11/03/20	13	5	5	4
12/03/20	14	6	5	4
13/03/20	15	6	5	4
14/03/20	16	11	6	8
15/03/20	17	12	8	8
16/03/20	18	17	8	12
17/03/20	19	23	12	16
18/03/20	20	29	20	20
19/03/20	21	40	28	28
20/03/20	22	52	39	36
21/03/20	23	69	52	48
22/03/20	24	92	66	64
23/03/20	25	121	102	84
24/03/20	26	161	155	112
25/03/20	27	213	205	148
26/03/20	28	282	283	196
27/03/20	29	374	368	260
28/03/20	30	495	451	344
29/03/20	31	656	514	456
30/03/20	32	869	589	604
31/03/20	33	1151	647	800
1/04/20	34	1525	708	1060
2/04/20	35	1899	797	1320
3/04/20	36	2181	868	1516
4/04/20	37	2394	950	1664
5/04/20	38	2555	1039	1776
6/04/20	39	2676	1106	1860
7/04/20	40	2768	1160	1924
8/04/20	41	2837	1210	1972
9/04/20	42	2889	1239	2008
10/04/20	43	2929	1283	2036
11/04/20	44	2958	1312	2056
12/04/20	45	2981	1330	2072
13/04/20	46	2998	1349	2084
14/04/20	47	3010	1366	2092
15/04/20	48	3021	1386	2100
16/04/20	49	3027	1401	2104
17/04/20	50	3033	1409	2108
18/04/20	51	3038	1422	2112
19/04/20	52	3039	1431	2112
20/04/20	53	3044	1440	2116
21/04/20	54	3044	1445	2116

Below are the graphs (all versions use the data from the table above):

From the table of data and the first graph we see that the curve Re*=2 is below (or not above) the curve for the actual number of cases from Day 20 (18 March) up until Day 32 (30 March).

The sequence starts on  Day 16 (14 March) with 8 cases estimated (8 = 4 + 4). i.e. using starting values from Day 13 and Day 14. Recall we miss out one day (Day 15) when generating the Fibonacci sequence).

The midpoint for the curve for the number of cases appears to be on Day 33 or Day 34.

We conjecture that the crossover may be because of the approach of the midpoint.

The crossover may also  indicate a flattening of the curve for the number of cases. However since Lockdown Level 4 only started on 25 March, it is likely to be too early for any flattening to be the result of Lockdown.

The crossover may however simply a result of the steepening of the Fibonacci curve.

Nevertheless this curve provides a good estimate for the minimum number of cases up to close to the midpoint for the number of cases.

My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

Data for my posts can be found at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

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