COVID-19 NZ: Modelling using Fibonacci sequences (Cont)

In this post we will continue using Fibonacci sequences to estimate the number of cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand. For background, please see my previous posts
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/

We will add a lower Fibonacci sequence (Re=2*) to estimate the approach of the midpoint for the number of cases (excluding a long tail).

The only change is in the starting values given in the table below:

Date Day# Re=2 Cases Re*=2
7/03/20 9 5
8/03/20 10 5
9/03/20 11 5
10/03/20 12 5
11/03/20 13 5 5 4
12/03/20 14 6 5 4
13/03/20 15 6 5 4
14/03/20 16 11 6 8
15/03/20 17 12 8 8
16/03/20 18 17 8 12
17/03/20 19 23 12 16
18/03/20 20 29 20 20
19/03/20 21 40 28 28
20/03/20 22 52 39 36
21/03/20 23 69 52 48
22/03/20 24 92 66 64
23/03/20 25 121 102 84
24/03/20 26 161 155 112
25/03/20 27 213 205 148
26/03/20 28 282 283 196
27/03/20 29 374 368 260
28/03/20 30 495 451 344
29/03/20 31 656 514 456
30/03/20 32 869 589 604
31/03/20 33 1151 647 800
1/04/20 34 1525 708 1060
2/04/20 35 1899 797 1320
3/04/20 36 2181 868 1516
4/04/20 37 2394 950 1664
5/04/20 38 2555 1039 1776
6/04/20 39 2676 1106 1860
7/04/20 40 2768 1160 1924
8/04/20 41 2837 1210 1972
9/04/20 42 2889 1239 2008
10/04/20 43 2929 1283 2036
11/04/20 44 2958 1312 2056
12/04/20 45 2981 1330 2072
13/04/20 46 2998 1349 2084
14/04/20 47 3010 1366 2092
15/04/20 48 3021 1386 2100
16/04/20 49 3027 1401 2104
17/04/20 50 3033 1409 2108
18/04/20 51 3038 1422 2112
19/04/20 52 3039 1431 2112
20/04/20 53 3044 1440 2116
21/04/20 54 3044 1445 2116

Below are the graphs (all versions use the data from the table above):

NZCasesFib3100

NZCasesFib500

NZCasesFib250

From the table of data and the first graph we see that the curve Re*=2 is below (or not above) the curve for the actual number of cases from Day 20 (18 March) up until Day 32 (30 March).

The sequence starts on  Day 16 (14 March) with 8 cases estimated (8 = 4 + 4). i.e. using starting values from Day 13 and Day 14. Recall we miss out one day (Day 15) when generating the Fibonacci sequence).

The midpoint for the curve for the number of cases appears to be on Day 33 or Day 34.

We conjecture that the crossover may be because of the approach of the midpoint.

The crossover may also  indicate a flattening of the curve for the number of cases. However since Lockdown Level 4 only started on 25 March, it is likely to be too early for any flattening to be the result of Lockdown.

The crossover may however simply a result of the steepening of the Fibonacci curve.

Nevertheless this curve provides a good estimate for the minimum number of cases up to close to the midpoint for the number of cases.

My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

Data for my posts can be found at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

I share my posts at:
https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

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