Deaths in China now 3097 from COVID-19

On 7 March in China the number of deaths has now reached 3097 from Coronavirus (COVID-19).

There were only 45 new cases on 7 March in China.

There are still 5264 serious/critical cases. This down from 5489, 5737, 5912, 6418, and just over 6800 on previous days.

We are not sure how these may affect the final number of deaths.

Since the number of deaths is now a few deaths away from 3,100 we will revisit our previous estimates of the number of deaths.

In this post we also revisit the death rate lying between 3.85% and 3.9%.

For background information, please see my previous posts:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/

Data for my posts can be found at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We extend the previous graph with data up to 7 March:

We see that the light blue line is no longer tracking along the purple line (Logistic function with L=3125). i.e. The bottom line is a logistic S-curve with L=3125.

The line above these is a logistic S-Curve with L=3195.

Both curves use F=7.9/47

The formula for the S-Curve is:

D = L/(1+Exp(F(do-d)))

where L=3195 and 3125, do = 23.5, and F = 7.9/47

Note: 47=2 x do.

The top lines (the red curve covers the one underneath) is also for a total of 3195 deaths.

The lines rise to between 3,100 and 3,200 deaths (actually 3,125 and 3,195 deaths, the values for L).

Since the actual number of deaths was earlier tracking closely to L=3,125 it appeared that the final death count within China was likely to be between 3,100 and 32,00 deaths.

We now revise our conclusion using F=7.9/47 and F=7.3/47 i.e. F=S/47 where L=3195 and S has the values 7.9 and 7.3

The changed graph is shown below:

As in a previous post, it now appears again that the number of deaths in China from Covid-19 will be between 3200 and 3500.

We also modify another previous table below:

The green shading shows a death rate between 3.85% and 3.9%.

We also estimate the total number of cases:

The green shading shows where the number of cases is less than 83,000.

We will follow up at a future date.

Alan Grace
6 March 2020

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