COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers V

We look again in this post at using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate cases numbers in New Zealand. In the previous post we concluded that an infected person could infect other people for two cycles. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/covid-19-nz-can-one-person-infect-2-7-to-2-8-others/ This suggested that a Fibonacci sequence could work to estimate case numbers. In the post we also saw…

COVID-19 NZ: Using a Fibonacci sequence to estimate total case numbers IV

We continue the work done in previous posts to estimate (Re**=2) the (final) total number of cases. See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/ We noticed in the most recent case that the Fibonacci sequence crossed the actual cumulative case data very close to the midpoint. We conjecture that this crossover point may be used to estimate the (final) total…

COVID-19 NZ: Modelling using Fibonacci sequences (Cont)

In this post we will continue using Fibonacci sequences to estimate the number of cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand. For background, please see my previous posts https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/fibonacci/ We will add a lower Fibonacci sequence (Re=2*) to estimate the approach of the midpoint for the number of cases (excluding a long tail). The only change…

COVID-19 NZ: Could cases have quadrupled if we had delayed Lockdown Level 4?

Lockdown effect We could have had cases galore If we had not gone to L4 Eight times more you see Says Fibonacci Why should NZ even want more Alan Grace 23 April 2020 Could cases have been eight times the current number in ten days if New Zealand not gone into Lockdown Level 4 when…

NZ COVID-19: Without Lockdown would cases have at least doubled? Does each person infect 2 others (Re=2)?

No fib Do not sit upon the fence Keep in your bubble’s defence There may be trouble Cases may double Says Fibonacci sequence Alan Grace 22 April 2020 We use Fibonacci sequences to answer the above questions. The usual Fibonacci sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, … Where each number (after…