We look at data to see if the final death toll going to be between 3200 and 3500.
Please see my previous post for the background:
Consider the following graph:
The top lines on the graph are for almost 3500 deaths, actually 3443 or 3444.
The bottom Logistic function is for 3200 deaths using the formula:
D = L/(1+Exp(F(do-d)))
where D is the total number of deaths, L=3200, do=23.5, and F=7.9/47
We note that currently the actual number of deaths is currently tracking nicely along this curve.
The estimate for the latest date, 27 February (day d=36) is D=2,851 deaths whereas the actual number is 2,858.
Note that the actual number of deaths includes about 50 deaths from outside China.
We conclude that the final number of deaths in China will be about 3200.
We will follow up in a few days to see what new death data reveals.
29 February 2020
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