# COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition

Spain appears at or near the top in almost all of our worldwide lists. See:
COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?

When looking at the spread of COVID-19 in Spain we created the following table:

Data source (confirmed cases only):
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

We see that r = 1.53 works well over a 4-day period.

Using r=1.53 in the formula Ro = 4.8r – 3.8, we obtain Ro = 3.5. See:
COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?
i.e. One person with COVID-19 may infect on average 3.5 other people in Spain
This has now been updated to up to 5.4 people using r=1.53 in the formula:
Re#2* = 10*r^10*(r-1)/(r^10-1).

In the above link, 10*(r-1) was also used to give a lower bound for Ro.

For r = 1.53 this gives 5.3 for Ro (multiply by 10 the value after the decimal point).

During this period, COVID-19 case numbers  in Spain increased at a rate of 1.53 (53%) per day.

This was higher than our threshold value in our estimations for the spread of COVID-19 worldwide.

We update our estimates for Ro and obtain for New Zealand Ro=2.9 [later 4]. For worldwide values for Ro see:
COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: NZ Ro~2.9; Ro = 4.8r-3.8
COVIDWorldAvNewRanked
COVIDWorldAvNewAlpha
COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4
COVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4

On 3 March the number of COVID-19 cases (192) in Spain is almost 5.5 times greater than on 28 February (35), four days earlier.

In the receding two days the number of cases more than doubled each day from 9, 17, and 35 cases each day; previously tripling from 3 to 9 cases.

COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

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