COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation

CSAW The CSAW simulationNeeds no more validationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek neat explanation Alan Grace8 September 2020 We provide an explanation of the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model).  Please also see:COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ formulation verification First we randomly simulate an outbreak of COVID-19. Once we have…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification

CSAW The CSAW formulationNeeds more verificationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek a neat foundation Alan Grace5 September 2020 We look at the formula that we developed from the CSAW (COVID-19  Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). We establish a table to verify the formula and use the table to confirmRo for New Zealand. We issue…

COVID Odyssey: Matariki, Maori New Year ~ New Dawning

COVID Matariki Matariki day morning Sun and the new year dawning An R-zero of six May I throw in the mix Six times more passings mourning Alan Grace 17 July 2020 Many in New Zealand are currently celebrating Matariki, the Maori New Year. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matariki https://www.kiwifamilies.co.nz/articles/matariki-maori-new-year/ https://www.tepapa.govt.nz/discover-collections/read-watch-play/maori/matariki-maori-new-year/what-matariki Sadly no-one from New Zealand appears to have…

COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

COVID Odyssey: Summer Daze ~ Introduction

Summer Daze Foreign virus exchange Our new normal is strange The halcyon Days don’t begin COVID’s made a great change Alan Grace 29 May 2020 COVID-19 has changed the world. This site documents my journey and my attempts to use simple mathematics (that hopefully a good high school student may be able to follow) to…

COVID Odyssey: Autumn Leaves ~ Quest complete?

Autumn Leaves Fall leaves in Autumn May peace and rest come Soon in June Cries to moon Spoiled soiled world numb Alan Grace 30 May 2020 New Zealand has not had any new cases of COVID-19 for the last six days. We have a total of 1504 cases and 22 deaths. 1500 cases was the…

COVID-19: NZ has moved down to Level 2. Happy L2 4U!

At 11.59 last night, New Zealand moved down to Lockdown Level 2. Below is what I wrote in the first few days of level 4 Lockdown: My other COVID-19 posts can be found here: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ Data for my posts can be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_Zealand https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200507/100-days-into-covid10-where-do-we-stand https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/? I share my posts at: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/guest-pingbacks/

Stay Away.

Originally posted on Bits of things that pop into this mind.:
Your not welcomed in my thoughts. Stay away from my world. Out of my head. Leave my dreams in peace. Better yet, You dare step in. I’ll entertain that handsome grin. Leave you with a few memories. Make you feel my pain. In exchange,…

COVID-19 USA: Could the total number of deaths exceed 200,000?

COVID covets USA lives Death number I always wondered US COVID may have plundered Months from now could we count the cost How many thousand would be lost Two hundred if Trump has blundered Alan Grace 10 May 2020 Alan Grace 10 May 2020 In this post we extend the work of the previous post…

COVID-19: 1,000,000 recovered. These may not have immunity.

Lucky million A million fully recovered COVID wonderfully smothered It’s not absurd Close to one third Hope many will be discovered Alan Grace 30 April 2020 Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:35 GMT Graphs – Countries – Death Rate – Symptoms – Incubation – Transmission – News Coronavirus Cases: 3,219,424 Deaths: 228,197 Recovered: 1,000,293 view by country Last updated: April 30, 2020, 01:56 GMT: Country, Total Total…

Helicopter money

Helicopter money debate Helicopter money is moot Fifteen hundred dollars of loot Is this money really Distributed fairly I want my golden parachute Alan Grace 27 April 2020 Helicopter money is money that is given away to (almost) all residents in the country. One possible option is to distribute $1500 to every adult resident in…

COVID-19 NZ: Has NZ eliminated COVID-19?

COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantic tricks Dirty politics Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 Previous version: COVID-19 Elimination Do we as a nation Shriek elimination Are semantics Just dirty tricks Seek eradication Alan Grace 29 April 2020 New Zealand has claimed we have eliminated COVID-19. This does not…

COVID-19: Can NZ do contact-tracing effectively quickly enough?

A little list A contact list What is the gist Who did you see Near recently Take care none missed Alan Grace 24 April 2020 Remember to keep a list of all your contacts to assist with contact-tracing in case you or someone you have been in contact with get infected. Contract-tracing should ideally be…

A week until L3

L3 in a week A week at L4 Who would hope for more What a great cost Cope with jobs lost Firms could close their door Alan Grace 21 April 2020 New Zealand was due to end four weeks of Level 4 Lockdown tomorrow night (Wednesday). This was extended until 11.59 Monday when we will…

COVID-19: NZ is doing well

NZ is doing well New Zealand is doing extremely well Is the lockdown working how can we tell? Our cases are fine They form a straight line Despite people being stupid as hell Alan Grace 4 April 2020 Please be considerate of other people when you are on foot on the road or footpath. We…

COVID-19 worldwide: Over 1 million cases; 50,000 deaths; 200,000 recovered

NZ’s cases currently linear If I may be dogmatic China’s deaths deemed quadratic Results seemed very clear COVID Evidence there NZ’s may not stay static Alan Grace 2 April 2020 Earlier version: NZ’s cases currently linear If I may be dogmatic China’s deaths were quadratic The results are there Evidence is clear NZ’s may not…

Cat’s rack

Cat’s rack II Please do not be taken aback Cat likes to drink wine from her rack Her wine bra is wearable No one’s fine mind bearable Show us your rack or get flak back. Alan Grace 2 April 2020 Original version: Cat’s rack Please do not be taken aback Cat likes to drink wine…

COVID-19: NZ Cases currently linear

NZ COVID-19 Cases Linear NZ Cases form a straight line If this were the norm would be fine What will be our fate How long will we wait Until the graph is not divine Alan Grace 2 April 2020 New Zealand COVID-19 Cases (Cumulative) are currently linear (a straight line). This is the best possible…

The Silver Lining from the COVID-19 Cloud

Originally posted on Author Don Massenzio:
As I write this, I’m sitting in my office beginning the fourth day of the isolation brought about by the COVID-19 (CoronaVirus) pandemic. I work for a company where travel every week is the norm. Last week, as I sat in a corporate office in Chicago, we listened to…

Cabin fever

Cabin fever I like to be formal My life’s so subnormal Smile do not frown Love our lockdown Know now the new normal Alan Grace 26 March 2020 New Zealand is in lockdown maybe for four weeks or more. There are now 462,781 cases throughout the world and 20,896 deaths. My posts can be found…

COVID-19: World deaths exponential

COVID-19 Death curves Cubes not spurned by Rubik World curves were turned cubic Death’s got new potential To yearn exponential Idea not cherubic Alan Grace 20 March 2020 In China up to the mid-point (my estimated day 23.5), the death curve was quadratic (based on x-squared). World deaths are exponential. For a while they appeared…

COVID-19: Now more deaths in Italy than in China

China vs Italy I hoped we would never see COVID-19 so deadly Such sore angina Outbid poor China Now more deaths in Italy Alan Grace 18 March 2020 Italy now has over 3,400 deaths. China has 3,245. Italy has just over half the number of cases that China has. In Italy the total number of…

COVID-19: The importance of social distancing

Don’t share COVID-19 Should we need assistance Care for your existence Don’t share COVID nineteen This is very obscene Keep a social distance Alan Grace 19 March 2020 Within several hours from now in the world from COVID-19: The number of cases will reach 220,000 cases The number of deaths will reach 9,000 Italy will…

COVID-19: Almost 200,000 cases and 8,000 deaths

COVID milestone Today is a great milestone Eight thousand deaths to bemoan 200K cases The vile death toll races A milestone or a millstone? Alan Grace 18 March 2020 Sometime today we can expect to have reached 200,000 cases and 8,000 deaths in the world from COVID-19. The current total around 8 am NZ time…

Could your country have more than 10,000 cases of COVID-19?

Self-isolate Caught the flu do not roam Lock your door stay at home Do not delay For a short day Pray we’re not shocked as Rome Alan Grace 11 March 2020 Previous version: Self-isolate With the flu do not roam Lock your door stay at home Do not delay For a short day Pray we…

Hoppy Leap Day

Leap Day Leap days are for the sun New day’s not just for fun Each Leap year’s leap divine After Feb 29 Two days instead of one Alan Grace 29 February 2020 Enjoy your Lap Day workout! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap_year The term leap year probably comes from the fact that a fixed date in the Gregorian calendar…

Coronavirus. An Acrostic.

Originally posted on Paintings and poetry.:
This curs-ed plague, that sweeps the earth Pushing fear before Plucking souls in random picks With constant greed for more There are empty streets in Bejing Milan is closing down The world is wearing face masks As God sends in the clowns Armageddon beckons Scream headlines in the mail…

Coronavirus: 80,000 cases in 40 countries/territories and 2700 deaths

There are currently 80,419 confirmed cases in 40 countries and territories and over 2700 deaths. See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ Corona travel Do you have a wish For a Petri Dish Floating or flying Poor people dying Coronavirish Alan Grace 26 February 2020 Alternative version: Corona travel Why seek your death wish Awful Petri Dish Floating or flying Poor…

Christmas Day … The dandelion

A dandelion for Jenny A Scottish thistle What a wolf whistle A dandelion And treat by Byron A love epistle Alan Grace 25 December 2019 She loves me She loves me not … After a family dinner on Christmas day I left to go for a walk with Jenny. I was reminded to pick a…

Fantail II

Fantail II Now rest in peace Jim, we are all right How blessed God’s best whim to fail your fight You are with Him, always in sight Memories dim, our thoughts stay bright Whene’er we see fantails aflight Brown grey feathers fantailed with white Twittering towards sunshine’s bright light Flittering forwards fearing the night. Alan…

Are Pingbacks working for you?

Originally posted on Share Your Best Posts:
Bring back my Pingbacks My Pingbacks lie over the ocean My Pingbacks lie over the sea My Pingbacks lie over the ocean Oh, bring back my Pingbacks to me… Bring back, bring back Oh, bring back my Pingbacks to me, to me Bring back, bring back Oh, bring…

Fantail

Originally posted on Share Your Best Posts:
Fantail Rest now Jim, we are all right ’Twas God’s whim to fail your fight You’re with Him, always in sight Memories dim, our thoughts stay bright Whene’er we see fantails aflight Brown grey feathers fantailed with white Twittering towards sunshine’s bright light Flittering forwards fearing the night.…