COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for NZ in 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Note: The formula in this post…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

We analyse the 2021 outbreak in New Zealand. We hope that the midpoint has been reached. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined as a…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs

Get your jabs There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united…

COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?

Please read Updates:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windupCOVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4COVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4rCOVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4r We estimate Ro (see below) by applying the analysis undertaken in New Zealand to the rest of the world. Note that data for the analysis below is for confirmed cases…

COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

Welcome

Welcome. My name is Alan Grace. I live in Titirangi (Auckland, New Zealand). Welcome to My COVID Odyssey. There are many methods that can be used to model COVID-19. You can find some in this post: COVID-19: Methods of Analysis In my own undergraduate and postgraduate study I enrolled in papers in numerical analysis and differential…