COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

We will discuss poll 4: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67051043 Here are the poll results: We believe the best choice is: The curve corresponding to 1.60. Below is a modified graph with extra vertical gridlines added to show quarter-months intervals (approximately 7.5-day intervals) The PDF below may be easier to read: COVID38Dec90 The graph was produced from these…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

We analyse the 2021 outbreak in New Zealand. We hope that the midpoint has been reached. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined as a…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs

Get your jabs There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 6 ~ COVID-19 Delta Variant 2021 ~ Does Ro = 12?

We look at the how many people one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect on average in 2021. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for NZ in 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 4 ~ The formula for calculating Ro

In this post we develop the formula we have used for calculating Ro, the number of people one person may infect on average over a 10-day symptomatic period (n = 10) given a daily increase r in the number of cases and a daily decrease of 1/r in infectivity. Note: The formula in this post…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup ~ 2020 simulations revisited

We revisit the simulations undertaken in early 2020 to estimate the number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect on average over an n-day infectious period. We developed a formula calculating the numbers Ro and Re (with and without isolation respectively) given a daily rate (r) of increase in cases. We also produced a…

COVID-19 Resthome Care NZ: Happy Mother’s day Mum

Happy Mother’s Day Mum. The issues we have with mum’s resthome care may not just be because of COVID-19. Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service aka SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents and Poor Real Estate Customer Service On this page we will be looking at: SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service My mother (94) is in Lynton Lodge,…

COVID-19 – SHIPRECS: Lynton Lodge Resthome (NZ)

Originally posted on SHIPRECS:
Thanks for joining me in SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service aka SHIPRECS: Suspect House[-marketing] Incidents and Poor Real Estate Customer Service On this page we will be looking at: SHIPRECS: Suspect Healthcare Incidents and Poor Resthome Elderly Customer Service My mother (94) is in Lynton Lodge, a resthome in New Zealand with hosital level care. Mum has dementia (not Alzheimers). She…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation explanation

CSAW The CSAW simulationNeeds no more validationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek neat explanation Alan Grace8 September 2020 We provide an explanation of the CSAW (COVID-19 Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model).  Please also see:COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ formulation verification First we randomly simulate an outbreak of COVID-19. Once we have…

COVID Odyssey: CSAW simulation ~ form[ul]ation verification

CSAW The CSAW formulationNeeds more verificationTho I’m so nigh certainNext’s show’s final curtainPlease seek a neat foundation Alan Grace5 September 2020 We look at the formula that we developed from the CSAW (COVID-19  Sampling Analysis Worksheets) model (“SeeSaw” model). We establish a table to verify the formula and use the table to confirmRo for New Zealand. We issue…

COVID Odyssey: The pain in Spain 50% gain ~ Spanish Inquisition

Spain appears at or near the top in almost all of our worldwide lists. See:COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country? Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?…

COVID Odyssey: OZ Adventure ~ COVID OdOZy

We look at the outbreak of COVID-19 in Australia. Please read Update:COVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide? For background, please look at:COVID Odyssey: African Safari ~ Big game shooting (with a camera)COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How…