![Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey](https://aaamazingphoenix.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/animation_500_kcijq1n6.gif)
Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
Sadly mum passed away over a month ago on 20 October, 95 years young. Fortunately she did not have COVID. Due to Auckland’s Lockdown level and border restrictions around Auckland, we could not have a service. Yesterday,…
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Bonus Green Bottle, it is. May the Fourth be with you! Today’s prompts for 4 May 2022: GREEN & HOPE
Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
My hope (and Yoda’s hope) for all of you today: For all my Green Bottle posts see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/ The prompt for 4 May 2016 was HOPE: https://wordpress.com/dailypost/prompts/Hope The prompt for 9 April 2016 was GREEN: https://dailypost.wordpress.com/prompts/Green Also…
1 May is May Day. New Sites COMING SOON. MAYDAY MAYDAY The Pirates are going down!
MAYDAY! MAYDAY! The Pirates are going down! No more plundering from the Pirates! No wonder the tall ship went under Struck by thunder and full of plunder TJ Hatton Is “plunder” or “ripoff” too strong a word? I believe it may not be! Image source: https://theescaperoomer.com/escape-live-pirate-plunder/ COMING SOON: COMING SOON: PIRATES 2023: Personal Insurance Ripoffs…
It’s PI day today 14 March!
Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159). We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called…
Our street blocked for 5th day in Titirangi
After heavy rains in Auckland on Friday, our street was blocked about 50m from our house. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-flooding-ranui-streets-homes-swamped-motorways-blocked-fenz-nzdf-called-in/3YQ54VEQTJE2HJDRYHLYAYHOTQ/ ====================================== Update ====================================== When we were walking home yesterday (Wednesday) work was finally being undertaken on the slip. Hopefully we can drive out of our street today. Yay. We managed to get our car out of the street…
T-Rex: Peter & Barbara meet at Auckland Museum
We went to see Peter and Barbara at Auckland Museum yesterday (free to visit). For the first time ever, Auckland Museum is the only place in the world to exhibit an adult male and female T. rex together. Don’t miss two of the rarest, real T. rex skeletons ever discovered. On display until late 2023….
Jenny and I have just recuperated from COVID-19. PAXLOVID is great!
PAXLOVID is Great! We have just had COVID Thank God for PAXLOVID Near Xmas so sad Good we had no bad Symptoms heaven forbid Alan Grace 18 December 2023 Jenny and I have just recuperated from COVID-19. Just before Christmas! The first time for both of us. I had a sore throat for a couple…
Merry Catmas
Merry Catmas to you all. All the best for 2023. Friends of mine have found a new home and have now sold their old home. I wonder how their planning is going for their move? The twelve weeks of moving(Maybe sing your own version everyday until you move?) On the first week of moving my…
Jenny’s Swan Song # Transition
It’s Jenny’s last day at SIKA today! Don’t cry Jenny! Jenny’s swan song Say goodbye, all SIKA workers As we sing Jenny’s swan song How it breaks my heart to leave you Now my SIKA job is gone High above the dawn is waiting And my tears are falling rain For my SIKA job is…
Jenny is Goneburgers tomorrow! #Transition
After resigning (and unresigning) twice from SIKA in NZ, Jenny is finally retiring tomorrow! Maybe the third E should be Entertain and cuddle Alan! ____________________ Jenny is Goneburgers Tomorrow! Retirement Welcome to the world Of waking up late Being disoriented And forgetting the date Get into the habit Of having lots of fun Not being…
Happy Birthday Mum. It is sad you are not here #Transition
Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
Stairway To Heaven Poem If tears could build a stairwell And memories were a lane, I would walk right up to Heaven And bring you home again. No farewell words were spoken, No time to say good-bye……
Xero’s Birthday #Transition
Nekro’s henchman Xero, Nekro’s henchman, now old and grey Even on his birthday I hear him come and go, With stealthy swift unmeaning to and fro, Muttering low, Perchance Time drives the merry-go-round whose track Is the zodiac; His name is No-man’s-friend; And his gabbling parrot-talk has neither trend, Beginning, nor end. Senseless and daft…
I DO NOT LIKE SAP; TIME TO SCRAM. PROMPT: GREEN
It was supposed to be Jenny’s last day at work today. Despite almost three month’s notice, a replacement for Jenny has not been found. Jenny has agreed to stay on (temporarily). Jenny’s work is in the final stage of migrating to SAP. Here’s the poem I wrote, based on Green Eggs and Ham by Dr…
COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning Omicron second wave~ Auckland cases in June 4.4x in one day~ NZ cases over 10,000 yesterday #PLAY
NZ new community cases topped 10,000 (10,290) yesterday (6 July) for the first time in months (since circa 21 April). See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10290-community-cases-522-hospitalisations-10-icu-12-deaths https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10294-community-cases-524-hospitalisations-14-icu-18-deaths https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13511-community-cases-30-deaths-past-two-days-500-hospitalisations-15-icu-today Update: on 8 July, instead of 13,334 new cases, there were actually 9,318 (over 4,200 less). See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/68319118 https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/nz-covid-19-case-numbers-corrected-9318 https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13344-community-cases-587-hospitalisations-9-icu-23-deaths On 27 June Auckland new community cases went up to 1,796…
Bonus Green Bottle 2. First NZ Matariki public holiday on 24 June! Perhaps visit Peter the Dinosaur? Today’s prompts: GREEN & STRONG & OPEN
On 24 June is New Zealand’s First Matariki public holiday. Perhaps you may like to visit Peter the dinosaur at the Auckland Museum? Viewing open for free! Matariki signals the Māori New Year. Traditionally, Matariki was a time to acknowledge the dead and to release their spirits to become stars. It was also a time…
Do you want to promote your blog? You do not want your blog to be the best kept secret in the world! Increase traffic to your site. Share your posts here! #Warning
You are welcome to share your best posts on this site: https://guestdailyposts.wordpress.com/ This may attract more traffic to your site. Your posts do not need to have a prompt. My purpose is: To provide a place for you to share your posts To provide resources for you to help improve your posts (see links at…
Tentative decisions; More T.S. Eliot
Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
Tentatively, you may like to try to solve some puzzles … see my competitions. NZ has a general election in progress. The Leader of the Labour Party, Jacinda Ardern, initially wanted to leave the decision about introducing…
COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum
COVID Odyssey Addendum Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb I feel like an April fool I have sealed my time capsule Before adding my addendum Alan Grace 26 March 2022 The Time Capsule embargo was lifted briefly on 30 March to include this addendum. Future posts can be…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 43 Post #970~ Website Lockdown Level 5 from 11.59pm on 25 March NZT~ Time Capsule: Changes embargoed forever
From 11.59 pm on 25 March 2022 changes to this website will be embargoed forever. This website will become a time capsule. For older (pre-COVID) and any new posts please see: https://agrace.altervista.org/ At 11.59 pm on 25 March 2020 New Zealand went into Lockdown Level 4. The COVID-19 posts (time capsule) start in January 2020…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 42 Post #969~ Worldwide windup~ Verification of our formula for Ro
We verify our formula for Ro: For definitions and background please see the WELCOME menu. We also use the same formula to estimate Re. Re is the effective reproduction number when there is isolation. We assume that n =10 and that infectivity reduces by a factor of 1/r each day where r is the daily…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 41 Post #968~ Worldwide windup~ More simulations to confirm our formula
We confirm our estimates for Re and hence Ro worldwide. We have developed spreadsheets simulating the spread of COVID-19 based on a specific daily increase in case numbers (r). We extend our spreadsheet to utilise a range of values for r. As a result of the original simulations we have developed a formula for calculating…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?
Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159). We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called PI. On Pi Day (today) we think it may be appropriate to consider values for Ro for a…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected?
In a recent Poll on an NZ social media website we had these votes: Here is the full question: See:https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67463549 We assume that: There will be no Lockdowns. The dominant variant will be Omicron in the next six months. There will not be any significant improvement in vaccines in the next six months. We will…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 38 Post #965~ NZ COVID-19: Revised calculation for Ro
We modify the way we calculate Ro in three ways. We use the formula we have already developed to calculate Ro based on r, the daily increase in total case numbers. When r = 1.4 as in New Zealand early on in the first 2020 outbreak, r^2 = 1.96 which is close to 2. We…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 37 Post #964~ NZ COVID-19: Case number doubling time~ Rule of 72
We have conducted a poll to see how long it may take for case numbers to quadruple in New Zealand from 100,000 to 400,000. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases? To quadruple the numbers need to double twice. To quadruple in…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 36 Post #963~ NZ COVID-19: Poll results~ When will NZ reach 400,000 cases?
We conducted a poll on a suburb-based social media website. Here are the results: The full question is below: We consider that the best answer is 400,000 cases will be achieved in March. Lets call the options in the order above A, B, C, D, E, and F. Option A is the best answer. Score…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 35 Post #962~ NZ COVID-19: Total case numbers over 100,000
From early 2020 to 27 February total New Zealand COVID-19 case numbers have now exceeded 100,000 cases. On 17 February, the total was around 25,000 cases. The total cases numbers from 18 February (11 days) are triple the total announced up to 17 February from early 2020. Note: Each day reported cases numbers are currently…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 34 Post #961~ NZ OMICRON: A Tsunami of Long COVID?
See NZ Herald 28 Feb. Also see: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles? Shared Posts (Pingbacks)
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles?
We re-evaluate our range estimate for Ro for Omicron in New Zealand. Over a three day period, the number of new cases of COVID-19 almost doubled each day. We calculated a daily increase of r = 1.908667. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 32 Post #959~ NZ COVID-19: 12,011 community cases yesterday~ When will…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 32 Post #959~ NZ COVID-19: 12,011 community cases yesterday~ When will the curve flatten?
New Normal? 12,000 more community cases Steeply upwards the total races 5 deaths yesterday too This is not just the flu A future bleak peak the country faces Alan Grace 26 February 2022 Yesterday New Zealand reached over 50,000 cases since early 2020. On 25/2 there were 12,011 community cases. Who would have thought cases…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 31 Post #958~ NZ COVID-19: 2,846 community cases today~ Be Safe ~ Today’s date can be an Ambigram
2,846 community cases of COVID-19 in NZ today (22 February 2022). See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/more-27000-boosters-administered-2846-community-cases-covid-19-143-hospital 22 February 2022 is a palindrome and an ambigram in NZ, UK, . . . (not in US). (turn the above image upside down) You can also miss out the zeros. Then Tuesday 22/2/22 really becomes Twosday. Shared Posts (Pingbacks)
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 30 Post #957~ NZ COVID-19 ~ 10,000 new daily community cases in a week’s time?
NZ Herald today (21 February): This means that option A in my poll is becoming more likely. See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 28 Post #955~ NZ COVID-19 Poll results~ When will total case numbers double to 50,000 cases? COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 29 Post #956~ NZ COVID-19 ~ More new community…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 29 Post #956~ NZ COVID-19 ~ More new community cases announced today than for all of 2020
2,522 new community cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand have just been announced today. See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/rapid-antigen-testing-auckland-2522-community-cases-covid-19-100-hospital This is more than the total number of cases (2,162) in 2020 in New Zealand. See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/ This makes it more likely that we may reach 50,000 cases by the end of February. We still think a total of…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 28 Post #955~ NZ COVID-19 Poll results~ When will total case numbers double to 50,000 cases?
The total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand has now exceeded 25,000 cases. How soon do you think this number will double to 50,000? Which choice is the best answer below? See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2022/02/18/covid-odyssey-nz-new-year-fear-24-post-951-nz-covid-19-new-community-cases-yesterday-more-than-total-in-first-2020-outbreak/ The above question was asked in an NZ social media Poll in Neighbourly. Responses could be made by members of Neighbourly…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 27 Post #954~ NZ COVID-19 ~ If the total number of cases increase by r daily then new cases also increase by r
If the total number of cases increase by a factor of r daily then new cases also increase by r. This may not be obvious to everyone. So we will prove it. Below are case numbers for the early 2020 outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand. We see that a daily increase of r =…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 26 Post #953~ NZ COVID-19 ~ New community cases yesterday more than total in first 2020 outbreak
Yesterday (18 February) in New Zealand 1,573 new community cases of COVID-19 were announced. See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/more-40000-boosters-administered-hutt-valley-reaches-90-fully-vaccinated-maori-1573-community-cases This is more than the total number of cases (circa 1,504) in the first 2020 outbreak in new Zealand. When will we have in New Zealand in one day more community cases than the total number of cases in…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 25 Post #952~ COVID-19 NZ~ Calculating Re over two cycles using Goal Seek
We want to estimate Re and hence Ro and COVID-19 spread when the period of infection is over two five day cycles. We have weights w1 for Cycle 1 and w2 for Cycle 2 where w1 + w2 = 1 or w2 = 1 – w1. Let C be the number of new cases in…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 24 Post #951~ COVID-19 NZ: COVID-19 spread using two cycles and Goal Seek
We want to estimate Ro and COVID-19 spread when the period of infection is over two five day cycles. We have weights w1 for Cycle 1 and w2 for Cycle 2 where w1 + w2 = 1 or w2 = 1 – w1. In the example below, we use 60% of new case numbers in…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 23 Post #950~ COVID-19 simulation~ Table: COVID-19 spread using a formula
We have developed in the previous post a formula to use instead of using Goal Seek in Excel. Our formula when r = 1.4 (daily increase in case numbers of 1.4) is: R = SQRT( (10 x 1.4^10)/10 – 3/4 ) – 1/2 See: COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 22 Post #949~ COVID-19 simulation:…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 22 Post #949~ COVID-19 simulation: COVID-19 spread using a formula instead of Goal Seek
We develop the previous post and create a formula to use instead of using Goal Seek in Excel. Our formula when r = 1.4 (daily increase in case numbers of 1.4) is: R = SQRT( (10 x 1.4^10)/10 – 3/4 ) – 1/2 In February 2020 we looked at the animation below. if 5 people with…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 21 Post #948~ COVID-19 simulation: COVID-19 spread with Excel Goal Seek
In February 2020 we looked at the animation below. if 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others, then 5 people could be sick after 1 Cycle, 18 people after 2 Cycles, 52 people after 3 Cycles and so on. : See: https://towardsdatascience.com/how-bad-will-the-coronavirus-outbreak-get-predicting-the-outbreak-figures-f0b8e8b61991 We create this table (see Total infected): We use a five day…
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 20 Post #947~ COVID-19 Omicron: Transmissibility~ Are 100 new cases possible ten days after infection?
Each Omicron case may mean 100 other new cases (even with isolation) on the tenth day after infection. Another 10 days later could mean 10,000 (100 x again) new cases on the last day. We could end up with a total of 240 cases on the tenth day after infection. Look at the table below….
Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey 