Do you know anyone who has cruised on the Coral Princess?

We are doing a cruise at the end of this month on the Coral Princess. We are interested in feedback from anyone who has cruised on this ship (or any other Princess ships). We were reluctant to do another Princess cruise after our experiences last year when we were charged USD $ 376 (NZ$600) for…

Plan for Random Acts of Kindness Day on 17 February

You may like to use this card: Maybe don’t wait until the Random Act of Kindness day? The table was modified from: 35 Random Acts of Kindness Calendar (Free Printable) We have also added numbering just in case you want a true random Act of Kindness: To use this table use two dice: Throw the…

Help me get out of this COVID Rabbit hole!

After four years looking at COVID-19 it is definitely time to stop!!! COVID Rabbit Hole I was caught down a rabbit hole It sought to take my mind and soul My sanity depended on Ending my fight with OMICRON I thought it might swallow me whole Alan Grace 2 April 2022 Warning: Don’t get caught…

COVID-19~ 2020 outbreak~ Conclusions up to August 6 2020

We draw conclusions from our previous posts based on cases up to August 6 2020. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), Ro ~ exp(sr – s), and Ro ~ exp(tr – t) where Ro is the average number of people that one person with COVID-19 may…

COVID-19~ Should a weighted average be used to estimate r*?

We have used two ways to calculate r*, an estimate for r. We currently use the first (“Old”) method to estimate Ro for the early 2020 outbreak. The only difference is on the second line where the average is used in the top calculation  a weighted average is used in the bottom calculation. Note that…

COVID-19~ Worldwide values for Ro in early 2020

We look at values for Ro worldwide in 2020 where Ro is the number of other people a person with COVID-19 may infect on average over a 10-day infectious period. We have looked at this post: COVID-19~ Better values for Ro We obtain this list: This PDF contains more countries: COVIDWorldwidet Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID-19~ Better values for Ro

In this post we obtain better estimates for Ro by increasing our minimal estimates for Ro. We have already looked at minimal values for Ro based on our previous results and simulations: COVID-19~ Minimal values for Ro In the above post we looked at EXP(sr-s). We consider t = s*1.05 and look at EXP(tr-t). i.e….

COVID-19~ Minimal values for Ro

In this post we look at minimal values for Ro based on our previous results and simulations. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may…

COVID-19~ Is 9.75(r-1)^2+1 a good estimate for Ro?

In this post we consider if Ro = 9.75(r-1)^2+1 a good estimate for Ro. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may infect when there…

Green Card Lottery~ Beware of scams!

Earlier this week I saw a link to the Green Card lottery. It has already closed! Beware of anyone asking for any money/costs: https://consumer.ftc.gov/media/79859 Also read the Transcript: I received the following email: A couple of days later I received a phone call. I said I believed it was a scam. I received a second…

COVID-19 in 2020~ Extending using approximating polynomials for Ro

We extend our range for estimating Ro using another polynomial. We have already investigated if r^3 (r cubed) is a good estimate for Ro for COVID-19: COVID-19~ World-wide estimates. Is r^3 a good estimate for Ro? We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a…

Speed Kills (an acrostic)

Speed Kills Speed will kill in ’24 Police will wage their own war Exceed limit fine ask for Expect fools safety adore Do not drive foot to the floor ~ Keep to the speeds set by law I hope toll less than before Liquor, drugs, phones add to score Last year’s toll down thirty four…

Message in a bottle~ Come to space with me to Europa~ Deadline may be today!

https://europa.nasa.gov/message-in-a-bottle/sign-on/ To enter the Message in a Bottle campaign, you just need to go to NASA’s website and fill out a short signup form. The deadline is tomorrow, December 31. So far, more than 2.4 million people have added their names. According to NASA, the names of everyone who participated will be stenciled in tiny,…

Happy New Year (an acronym)

Have A Perfectly Pleasurable Year Newly Extend Well Your Enjoyment And Rewards https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=happy+new+year Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year~ an acrostic

I hope you had a Merry Christmas and will have a Happy New Year. All the best for 2024. Alan Meditate with Enthusiasm Respecting Reflecting on Your year ~ Clarify and Honour your Role In this life Sparkle bright. Twinkle like the star you are. Mighty in your special ways Affirming your Speciality each and…

New Year’s Day~ a reverse poem

Happy New Year. I hope New year’s Day 2024 goes well for you. If your New Year’s Day does not go well remember this poem. Change the first line to: Today was the worst New Year’s Day ever Change the last line to: New Year’s Day 2024 was a very good day Now read each…

Happy New Year (Acrostics)

Happy New Year … An Acrostic Heres to a real plan for peace in this year to come, not more of the enmity and loss we’ve had as we yearn for the end to war and hope Peace on Earth will be restored once again. Sue Mason posted 2009 https://www.poetrysoup.com/poem/happy_new_year__an_acrostic_194197 Happy New Year! Happy New…

COVID-19~ World-wide estimates. Is r^3 a good estimate for Ro?

We investigate if r^3 (r cubed) is a good estimate for Ro for COVID-19. We have already looked at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may infect when there…

Wishing you all a Merry Christmeow and a COVID-free new year. All the best for 2024!

Merry Christmeow and all the best for 2024! Sadly, I could not personalise the cards- there are only a limited number of views allowed for each card. All the best for 2024. https://www.123greetings.com/events/carol_day/a_joyous_christmas_carol.html https://www.123greetings.com/events/christmas/merry_christmas/joyful_christmas_and_a_happy_new_year.html Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

COVID-19~ Worldwide estimates if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5)

We look at worldwide estimates for Ro if Ro ~ exp(2.5r – 2.5), where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. Ro is the average number of people one person may infect when there is no immunity in the community over a ten-day infectious period, and “exp” means “e to…

COVID-19~ Does Ro = exp(2.5r – 2.5)?

In this post we consider whether Ro = exp(2.5r – 2.5) is a good estimate for Ro where r is the daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak. We consider this graph: We have already considered r^2.5 and r^(10/3) for various values of r. We add these to the graph: Below are the…

COVID-19~ refining our estimate for Ro

We have considered that Ro = 1.1r^2.5 provides a good estimate for Ro, where r is a daily increase in case numbers early in an outbreak, and Ro is the average number of people that one person may infect when there is no immunity over a ten-day infectious period. We now consider if Ro =…

COVID-19 in 2020~ 1.1r^2.5 compared with literature meta-analyses

In this post we update our earlier results and compare our results with meta-analysis in the literature. In 2020 we developed a formula for Ro, the number of people one person may infect over a ten-day period when there is no immunity, based on the daily increase, r, in the number of cases of COVID-19….

COVID-19~Worldwide estimates for Ro in 2020

We se the results in our previous post to calculate worldwide estimates for Ro in 2020 using data up to mid-August 2020. We obtain the following table: For more countries see: COVIDWorldAllCasesCPMNZcorr Notes: The date and number of cases are when r* was calculated. The estimate for Ro is the value in penultimate (second to…

Covid-19~ Does 1.1r^2.5 provide a good estimate for Ro?

We consider whether  for COVID-19, 1.1r^2.5 provides a good estimate for Ro,  the number of people one person may infect when there is no natural immunity. We have already established that r^2.5 provides a good estimate for the effective reproduction rate Re, where r is the daily increase in case numbers. We want to estimate…

Another Social Media detox~ has anyone used baggage storage in Circular Quay?

Social media detox No more a prisoner of war Freed from the social candy store I need a detox I’m on “The WordPress Rocks” Majestic Sydney cruise explore Alan Grace Modified 27 October 2023 https://int.sydney.com/destinations/sydney/sydney-city/the-rocks Time for a social media detox on a cruise to Sydney. I’m going on another cruise soon. This time on…

My Broken Heart

The PDF below may be easier to read (scroll down in the PDF for the updated poem): MY BROKEN HEART7 You can view the original poem here: https://www.heartbeats.org.nz/my-heart-poem/ Questions: What phrase can be made from the white letters and the letters highlighted in yellow? What are the longest sentences you can make using only the…

Exercise your right to vote!

New Zealand has a general election underway with the main polling day tomorrow. For all my relevant posts see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/tax/ On 19 September 1893 the governor, Lord Glasgow, signed a new Electoral Act into law. As a result of this landmark legislation, New Zealand became the first self-governing country in the world in which women…

VOTING DAY IS NEAR (an Acrostic)

Remember to vote in New Zealand’s General Election (currently underway)! See: https://www.poetrysoup.com/poem/voting_day_is_near_acrostic_717233 Analysis of Polls: What are the fairest tax rates for New Zealand overall? You may like to view the PDF: VOTING DAY IS NEAR Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

Analysis of Polls: What are the fairest tax rates for New Zealand overall?

We will analyse the results of three Polls on Neighbourly, a New Zealand social media suburb-based site. The Polls were viewable by almost 25,000 residents (24,475) in suburbs surrounding my own in Titirangi in west Auckland. Very few people chose to respond. You can view the responses here: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/70275327 https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/70273456 https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/70269533 You can view my…

Part 2: What are the fairest tax rates for New Zealand overall?

We again consider the best tax rates for New Zealand. We again consider the current tax rates: We eliminate the lowest two ideas from our last post: What are the fairest tax rates for New Zealand overall? We look at zero tax for the first $5,600 of income then: 17.5% tax under $70,000 28% tax…

What are the fairest tax rates for New Zealand overall?

New Zealand has a general election underway this year. Parties have different ideas about what the tax rates should be. We will ignore subsidies in this post. We will only consider the tax rates themselves. Also see:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2023/10/08/part-2-what-are-the-fairest-tax-rates-for-new-zealand-overall/ Which is fairest for New Zealand overall? The current NZ tax rates? The National Party tax rate proposal?…

A range for Ro for COVID-19 early in 2020

In 2020 we developed a formula for Ro, the number of people one person may infect over a ten-day period when there is no immunity, based on the daily increase, r, in the number of cases of COVID-19. This year we considered that Ro = r^2.5 gave a better estimate for Ro. We obtain and…

Review of the Retirement Villages Act 2003~ My DMF recommendations

Te Tūāpapa Kura Kāinga – NZ Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is undertaking a review of the Retirement Villages Act 2003, and its associated regulations and codes. See: https://consult.hud.govt.nz/policy-and-legislation-design/review-of-retirement-villages-act-2003/ The Review opened on 8 Aug 2023, and closes 20 Nov 2023. You may make submissions now. You may find it easiest to download…

Matches in two decks of shuffled cards: My hands should be sore!

When reading the library book by Adam Spencer below, a question was asked #52- can you guess why? My hands should be sore from shuffling two decks of cards 2,000,000 times, each time going through the two decks turning over one card from each deck to see how many times there was a match (same…

NZ COVID-19 Polls

We look at two recent New Zealand COVID-19 polls. Both polls were posted on Neighbourly, a New Zealand suburb-based social media website. The first poll is ongoing nation-wide. The second poll is based around some suburbs in West Auckland. For all my COVID-19 posts see: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/ The following (interim) results occurred: With one more vote…

COVID-19 NZ~ Is no-isolation a dumb idea?

No Isolation No mask-wearing now the norm All so easy to perform No more isolation A bizarre creation Is this now the perfect storm? Alan Grace 16 August 2023 What may happen with COVID-19 spread within schools (and elsewhere) now there is no longer a mandatory isolation requirement when a student (or anyone else) becomes…

All COVID-19 requirements removed in NZ~ no more isolation & no masks required

Pandemic over We can never see how NZ can take the bow Get sick and cry Get well or die Pandemic’s over now? Alan Grace 15 August 2023 The NZ Government has announced that: All COVID-19 requirements removed 14 Aug 2023 Effective from 12:01am Tuesday 15 August, 7 day mandatory isolation, wearing of face masks…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ GIGO: New Zealand has moved up one position!

A duplication in our source data we obtained from an outside source has meant New Zealand has moved up one position in world rankings. GIGO means Garbage In Garbage Out. The new rankings are: Norway and New Zealand have changed positions. The last column ranks countries by r* our two-day average estimation for r. We…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ Computation of r and Re in Excel

In 2020 we looked at Case numbers of COVID-19 worldwide using data up to 6 August 2020. Data by country/region daily was in 28,800 rows in an Excel 2010 spreadsheet. We used initially this methodology to estimate daily increases, r, over five-day intervals: C and r are the case numbers and value for r (daily…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Re = r^2.5?

We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 worldwide for infectious diseases where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. We now consider that Re = r^2.5 where Re is the effective reproduction rate. In New Zealand in the initial COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak in 2020…

The rise in case numbers for infectious diseases

In this post we look at the potential rise in case numbers for major infectious diseases. In our last post we considered Ro = r^2.5 where Ro is the number of people one person may infect when there is no immunity and r is the rise in case numbers over a short period near the…