COVID-19 NZ: Like yesterday the straight line is 6 below the actual number of cases

Life under COVID-19

Sadly life may not seem sweet
Although we may like to greet
face to face
in meat space
Only Online may we meet

Alan Grace
3 April 2020

Today in New Zealand we had 71 new cases, bringing the total number of cases to 868 in NZ.

The straight line has the same equation as in my previous post.

Below is the new graph:


Extending the straight line we will still have over 5,000 (5,030) cases by Day 95.

We cannot expect the curve to stay linear.

The number of cases should be a minimum.


Everyone please:

1. Keep yourself safe.

Many people appear to be still in denial about the effects of COVID-19 or believe themselves bulletproof.

Do not underestimate COVID-19. This is literally a 1 in 100 year event. No one is safe from this. The last time there was anything nearly as bad as this was in 1918 with the Spanish flu outbreak.

2. Take the time to do a SWOT analysis for your business (if you have one).
COVID-19 is a game-changer. Any SWOT analysis you have done in the past is irrelevant at least in the short-term/ this year.

3. Make sure you consider funding. Your traditional source of funding will almost certainly have dried up (and your sales too) and may not be available this year. Remember that the difference between a JOB (Just-Over-Broke) and a HOBBY is income.

4. Make sure you consider the timeframe. It is very unlikely the current lockdown will be over in a month or quite likely the next few months. While I do not believe the figures in the MOH reports, one of the reports mentions a 20 week period until the peak- the length of lockdown may for most be twice the time it takes for the peak to be reached.

5. Look for opportunities in particular in your SWOT analysis. What opportunities now/will exist that were not there before the outbreak?

Look for online opportunities rather than f2f (face-to-face/ in meat-space). It may be a considerable length of time (over 6 months at least) before there will be sufficient customers for community markets or any f2f sales.

6. Consider how boredom may become a motivator for sales. Many people are already tired of being in lockdown.

7. Consider that the current outbreak may only be one of many waves.

8. Stay in your bubble.

9. Keep yourself and your bubble alive and healthy. Keep everyone in your bubble restricted to your bubble except for your designated shopper.

10. Be kind to everyone.

My other COVID-19 posts can be found here:

Data for my posts can be found at:

I share my posts at:

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