COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 19 ~ Delta variant ~ The first ten days of Lockdown

The first ten days of Lockdown At the start of Day One Lockdown bubble begun Around hour of midnight Now no virus in sight When will the fight be won? Chorus Healthy virus-free day for us Healthy virus-free day for us Healthy virus-free day dear bubble Healthy virus-free day for us It’s halfway through Day…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 18 ~ Delta variant: NZ vs Norway~ How may % vaccination affect case numbers?

We use Norway data to estimate a worst-case scenario for Norway and New Zealand. We anticipate we could have 500,000 cases over a one-year period and 2100 deaths. Even using Norway’s actual case data provides a scary scenario for New Zealand. New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 17 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Will the total exceed 1500 cases?

We estimate a new range for the current Delta outbreak in New Zealand to be 1329 to 1517 cases. We have previously estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 16 ~ Lockdown breaches ~ The COVID Cowboys

The COVID cowboys Clark and Willie Wanaker One Were among the breaches boys After lockdown had begun Cowboys playing with their toys Having lots of fun Making lots of noise While we wished our work was done Siouxsie Wiles made a few breaches With wily pink smiles and poise Sinking in the sea; sunning on…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant outbreak 2021 ~ Estimating Ro and Re

We estimate under the current Lockdown Level 4 in Auckland one person may infect 6 to 6.3 other people in New Zealand in the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19. Without lockdown we have estimated one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect 9 to 12.75 other people. See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14 ~ Estimating total 2021 Cases ~ The range still appears to be 940 to 1073 cases

We have estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be? You may like to look at the…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 13 ~ Delta variant ~ Estimating r, Re and Ro

Originally posted on Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey:
We look again at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We look at case numbers up to 6 August 2020. As expected estimates for Re#2 (last column in the first table, calculated using…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be?

Since there were only 20 new cases in New Zealand yesterday (4 September) we revise our estimate for the total number of cases in this outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19. First it is useful to look at the outbreak in New Zealand in early 2020. Please look at this post: COVID Odyssey: Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 11 ~ Delta variant ~ Will NZ Cases exceed last year?

The total number of cases in this outbreak in New Zealand is likely to exceed the the total in the outbreak early in 2020 if the midpoint is in September. Update. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be? Yesterday the number of…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

We analyse the 2021 outbreak in New Zealand. We hope that the midpoint has been reached. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined as a…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 9 ~ C = ar^d ~ A trivial way to estimate total case numbers

We have used the formula C = ar^d to estimate case numbers in New Zealand. The easiest was to calculate C is to start with the value a, and on each successive day multiply the previous day’s estimate by r. In last years initial outbreak we saw in New Zealand r = 1.4 and r…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 8 ~ 2021 Delta midpoint ~ Are we there yet?

We hope we are near the midpoint for the current COVID-19 outbreak (Delta variant) in New Zealand. We had around 82 cases yesterday (29 August) and the previous day. We hope that the number of new cases will start to decline very soon and that there will only be one peak. In the original 2020…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 7 ~ Will we have 100 cases today? ~ 1000 total by Wednesday?

COVID-19 case numbers continue to rise in New Zealand. We hope that case numbers will peak very soon. We had 82 cases yesterday. Case numbers can be estimated using the formula C(d) = 1.16 x SQRT(2)^d where ^ means ‘to the power of’ and d is the number of days from 10 August 2021. We modify this…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula

We have developed a simpler formula for estimating the number of cases in New Zealand for the current COVID-19 Delta variant outbreak.. Our formula is: C = r^d where r = 1.429 and d = the number of days since 10 August 2021. Here is the PDF version: NZCases2021r The effective reproduction rate (Re) is…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 5 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Where will the midpoint be?

We revisit the spread of COVID-19 in New Zealand in early 2020. The object is to apply the exercise below to the current 2021 Delta outbreak in New Zealand. If you have not done this exercise, please do it now: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 3 ~ Estimating the number of 2020 Cases ~ Where…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 4 ~ Delta variant 2021 ~ Case numbers appear exponential Dr Bloomfield

New Zealand COVID-19 (Delta variant) Case numbers are exponential. From today’s NZ Herald (26 August page A4): Case numbers can be estimated using the formula C = 1.16 x SQRT(2)^d where ^ means ‘to the power of’ and d is the number of days from 10 August 2021. We estimate the total number of cases…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 3 ~ Estimating the number of 2020 Cases ~ Where is the midpoint?

We revisit the spread of COVID-19 in New Zealand in early 2020. The object is to apply the exercise below to the current 2021 Delta outbreak in New Zealand. To estimate the total number of cases, we first have to consider when we may have reached the midpoint. Even if the midpoint is assessed accurately,…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 2 ~ Delta variant ~ Lockdown 4 appears to be working

Lockdown Level 4 appears now to be starting to bring down the daily rate of increase (r) of case numbers of COVID-19 in New Zealand. Update: See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula ee the last column in the table below where values for…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ ~ Delta variant ~ May one person infect 12 others?

Based on NZ current case numbers for the Delta variant, we estimate on average one person may infect at least 12 others (Ro > 12) without quarantine or isolation. Case numbers may close to triple over a two-day period (1.7 x 1.7 = 2.89). For the Delta variant worldwide, we have estimated Ro to be…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning Omicron second wave~ Auckland cases in June 4.4x in one day~ NZ cases over 10,000 yesterday #PLAY

NZ new community cases topped 10,000 (10,290) yesterday (6 July) for the first time in months (since circa 21 April). See: https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10290-community-cases-522-hospitalisations-10-icu-12-deaths https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10294-community-cases-524-hospitalisations-14-icu-18-deaths https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13511-community-cases-30-deaths-past-two-days-500-hospitalisations-15-icu-today Update: on 8 July, instead of 13,334 new cases, there were actually 9,318 (over 4,200 less). See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/68319118 https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/nz-covid-19-case-numbers-corrected-9318 https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13344-community-cases-587-hospitalisations-9-icu-23-deaths On 27 June Auckland new community cases went up to 1,796…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 4 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Outbreak 2021~ What can we learn from the data?

We look again at the data for the current Delta variant outbreak in New Zealand. Also see this version: NZCasesDeltaRollingM1 Below is a zoomed in snapshot of the above: The figures in the first column (except the last two) are a rolling 30-day total. We have a number of days when the total was around…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 The poll This post provides the results of a poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). To view the poll, see: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up ~ NZ COVID-19 Poll~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

New Zealand currently has about 34% (about 1/3) of its population over 12 fully vaccinated. For Norway the percentage is 67 % (about 2/3). When New Zealand reaches 67% fully vaccinated, which of the following estimates do you think provides the most suitable worst-case scenario for New Zealand over the next 12 months? a) 1,300,000…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 9 ~ Ro > Re ~ How much greater is Ro?

We consider how much greater Ro  is than Re. We look at the following table: For definitions see: Welcome In New Zealand  both r = SQRT(2) and r = 1.429 provide good estimates for the total number of cases from 21 to 25 August 2021. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide

We revise our estimates for Ro worldwide. Previously we had the ranking below (see r1 and Re1 columns) for the 2020 outbreak (note: r1 is without weights; r2 is with weights): The above was calculated using: Note that n = 10 days and  r[d] is a daily increase (growth factor) calculated over the next 5…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 15 ~ Executive summary ~ Our formula for Ro

Updates for New Zealand Delta variant data and results see: Welcome COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 2 ~ Delta variant ~ Lockdown 4 appears to be working For COVID-19 in the original 2020 outbreak, we have estimated Ro…

COVID Odyssey: Summer Surprise 3 ~ Post #926: Willis & Rawnsley Court Decision ~ A lump of coal for the Wanakers for Xmas

Covid-19 Delta outbreak: Judge’s son William Willis, lawyer Hannah Rawnsley sentenced for flouting Auckland lockdown to holiday in Wānaka. The couple who garnered widespread attention in the first weeks of the Delta outbreak after they left Auckland’s strict Covid-19 lockdown for a holiday home in Wānaka pleaded guilty today and were sentenced. Equestrian William Willis…