COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 17 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta~ Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a treat!

Halloween Poems Poem One & Poem Two: Delta Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a treat In the city so windy PM Big Sister Cindy Stays in the house grand Strays COVID Auckland [Traps][Tracks]* us and throws a shindy Alan Grace 31 October 2021 * Choose one Poem Three: Delta Halloween: Auckland boundaries are not a…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 16 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta Variant~ Vaccinations to 90% by DHB

To change to a traffic light system, Auckland’s three DHBs (District Health Boards) must all reach 90% of the population (over 12) fully vaccinated. Below are the current figures, probably for Wednesday 27 October. First/second doses % are the number of first/second doses administered divided by the eligible population. First/second doses to 90% are the…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 15 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 5 results~ Best targets for 90% fully vaccinated by the end of November

The anti-vaxxer An unjabbed golfer named Marty An anti-vaxxer not smarty Marty played golf for fun Prayed for a hole in one Two small holes in one arm Could have prevented harm COVID delayed his wake party Alan Grace 26 October 2021 We look at the results for Poll 5: The graph in this PDF…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 14 ~ Auckland NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

Last week New Zealand introduced a Traffic-Light system to be introduced at the end of November if Auckland (Auckland’s three District health Boards) hopefully has 90% of its population fully vaccinated. See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/300436587/covid19-nz-how-the-traffic-light-system-will-work-and-what-new-zealand-needs-to-do-to-reach-it At the end of September, 38% were fully vaccinated. We look at possible vaccination target scenarios to achieve the 90% goal. This…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 13 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We present an alternative way of producing vaccination targets by starting with an initial target of 40% instead of 38%. This time, for the top and bottom values for f, we compare the curves for 38% and 40%. We obtain the following tables: Notes: September means at the end of September,  . . . Look…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 12 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We present an alternative way of producing vaccination targets by starting with an initial target of 40% instead of 38%. We obtain the following tables: Notes: September means at the end of September,  . . . Look at the bottom line in the tables. The graph becomes (look at the top/highest curve): The PDF below…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 11 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta variant over 2000 cases ~ When will we achieve 90% full vaccination?

Damn Auckland For 90% vaccination Auckland’s ransom creates frustration Is this believable Or sure achievable We need more freedom not damnation Alan Grace 19 October 2021 94 Delta cases today (Tuesday 19 October); total 2,099 cases. This is the highest daily number of cases New Zealand has ever had. See: COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 10 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta variant~ 1895 cases in 2 months

We now have had 1895 cases in the last two months since the beginning of this outbreak. Tomorrow the number of cases will exceed 1900. The PDF version will be easier to read: NZCasesDeltaZ90u Tomorrow we will have over 1900 cases. Last year in the first outbreak we had 1504 cases. The first 1472 cases…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

We will discuss poll 4: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67051043 Here are the poll results: We believe the best choice is: The curve corresponding to 1.60. Below is a modified graph with extra vertical gridlines added to show quarter-months intervals (approximately 7.5-day intervals) The PDF below may be easier to read: COVID38Dec90 The graph was produced from these…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 8 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ Can New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated by year end?

We first assume that New Zealand could have 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. We are not saying that this may be possible but look at some targets that may need to be reached if 90% full vaccination is achievable. At the end of September (Month 1) New…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 7 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 3 results~ When will New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated?

We will discuss poll 3: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67022662 Here are the poll results: I believe the best choice is: 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated is not possible by February. First look at: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible? COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ How can we tell if vaccinations are on track?

We need to have a way of measuring if the progress of the percentage of fully vaccinated people may be sufficient to achieve a target of 80% or 90% fully vaccinated within a desired timeframe, say the end of the year or at the end of February. We suggest the calculations based on v(f –…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 5 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2 results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 We will show that the most suitable response for Poll 2 (see below) is 24,000 Cases. For the updated best reponse see: COVID Odyssey:…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 4 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Outbreak 2021~ What can we learn from the data?

We look again at the data for the current Delta variant outbreak in New Zealand. Also see this version: NZCasesDeltaRollingM1 Below is a zoomed in snapshot of the above: The figures in the first column (except the last two) are a rolling 30-day total. We have a number of days when the total was around…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 3 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning Let us not talk at cross-purpose Let us stop this COVID circus We are able Let us table Suitable means fit for purpose Alan Grace 18 September 2021 Poll 2 This post describes a second poll on a New Zealand social media App (Neighbourly). Links to the  first poll and the results…