COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 42 Post #969~ Worldwide windup~ Verification of our formula for Ro

We verify our formula for Ro: For definitions and background please see the WELCOME menu. We also use the same formula to estimate Re. Re is the effective reproduction number when there is isolation. We assume that n =10 and that infectivity reduces by a factor of 1/r each day where r is the daily…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 41 Post #968~ Worldwide windup~ More simulations to confirm our formula

We confirm our estimates for Re and hence Ro worldwide. We have developed spreadsheets simulating the spread of COVID-19 based on a specific daily increase in case numbers (r). We extend our spreadsheet to utilise a range of values for r. As a result of the original simulations we have developed a formula for calculating…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible?

The vaccine hesitant includes a range of people ranging from people fearful of getting a jab, those fearful of the consequences of getting a jab, to anti-vaxxers. ‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 9 ~ Ro > Re ~ How much greater is Ro?

We consider how much greater Ro  is than Re. We look at the following table: For definitions see: Welcome In New Zealand  both r = SQRT(2) and r = 1.429 provide good estimates for the total number of cases from 21 to 25 August 2021. See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 8 ~ Ro ~ Estimating Re & Ro by 3 straight lines

We have estimated Re and Ro for COVID-19 using the linear equation y = 17r – 18, where r is a daily growth rate of infections (estimated over the next 5 days). We now add in two extra lines to complete the approximations. The three lines are: y = 17r – 18       …

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 7 ~ Ro ~ Estimating Ro by a straight line

We estimate Re and Ro for COVID-19 using the linear equation y = 17r – 18, where r is a daily growth rate of infections (estimated over the next 5 days). i.e. We use the value calculated for y in the equation as an estimate for Re and Ro. Update: See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 6 ~ Ro ~ Estimates for the Alpha and Delta variants

We have already estimated Ro for the original COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020 and for the Delta variant.  We have estimated Ro between 5 and 8 for the original COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020. We have estimated Ro between 9 and 12.7 for the original Delta COVID-19 Outbreak. We now estimate Ro for the 2020 Alpha variant. …

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide

We revise our estimates for Ro worldwide. Previously we had the ranking below (see r1 and Re1 columns) for the 2020 outbreak (note: r1 is without weights; r2 is with weights): The above was calculated using: Note that n = 10 days and  r[d] is a daily increase (growth factor) calculated over the next 5…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 4 ~ Is Ro 6 to 7.8 in early 2020?

For COVID-19 in early 2020, we have estimated Ro to be in the range 6 to 7.8. For the Delta variant we have estimated Ro to be in the range 9 to 12.7. Update. See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide We consider widening our range estimate for COVID-19…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 3 ~ COVID-19 in 2020 vs 2021 ~ Cases per million people

We look at cases per million people for the 31 countries with over one million cases on 6 August 2021 and compare the results estimated for the daily rate of increase, r, estimated a year earlier on 6 August 2020. We have looked at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 2~ Be afraid, be very afraid of the Lambda variant

Be afraid, be very afraid of the Lambda variant. Strong likelihood of more dangerous COVID-19 variants – WHO. The eighth meeting of the Emergency Committee convened by the WHO Director-General under the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) regarding the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) took place on Wednesday, 14 July 2021 from 11:30 to 16:00 Geneva time…

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup ~ COVID-19 in 2020 vs 2021 ~ How many people may one person infect in your country?

We look again at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We look at case numbers up to 6 August 2020. As expected estimates for Re#2 (last column in the first table, calculated using our formula for Ro below), and hence Ro occurred very early in an outbreak in each country. Ro…

COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Ro = r^2.5?

We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. In New Zealand in the initial outbreak r = 1.4 and hence we estimate now that Ro = 1.4 ^ 2.5. See: COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ Is Ro…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 15 ~ Executive summary ~ Our formula for Ro

Updates for New Zealand Delta variant data and results see below. For earlier and other variants see: Welcome About COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 2 ~ Delta variant ~ Lockdown 4 appears to be working For COVID-19 we…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 5 ~ Conclusions for NZ in 2020 ~ Back to the past: Re = 5.8 and Ro = 6

In this post we conclude that we need to go back to our original results for estimating Ro. By definition we let: r denote the effective Reproduction rate of COVID-19 for one day Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denote the Reproduction number for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation Re denote the effective Reproduction number for COVID-19 (Re assumes isolation/quarantine is happening) a case be defined…

COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum

COVID Odyssey Addendum Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb I feel like an April fool I have sealed my time capsule Before adding my addendum Alan Grace 26 March 2022 The Time Capsule embargo was lifted briefly on 30 March to include this addendum. Future posts can be…

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 6 Post #933~ Omicron will be dominant variant in NZ community in 2 to 4 weeks

What community variant? What on earth letter are we onWhen will we next have OmicronDelta is now dominantOmicron soon prominentPerhaps rename it Omnicron? Alan Grace14 January 2022 We have only had one known case of community spread of Omicron in New Zealand. NZ Herald today (14 Jan) on P1: Should we rename Omicron, Omnicron? Below…

COVID Odyssey: Summer Surprise 2 ~ Post#924: NZ COVID-19~ OMICRON has reached NZ border

Yesterday Thursday 16 December it was officially announced at a televised media conference that the OMICRON variant has been detected at an MIQ facility in Christchurch. We extend our previous chart to include the OMICRON variant. The horizontal access shows potential values for Ro. For the previous chart see: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 6…

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 7 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 3 results~ When will New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated?

We will discuss poll 3: See: https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/message/view/67022662 Here are the poll results: I believe the best choice is: 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated is not possible by February. First look at: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 10 ~ Vaccine hesitancy ~ is herd immunity possible? COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 6 ~…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 18 ~ Delta variant: NZ vs Norway~ How may % vaccination affect case numbers?

We use Norway data to estimate a worst-case scenario for Norway and New Zealand. We anticipate we could have 500,000 cases over a one-year period and 2100 deaths. Even using Norway’s actual case data provides a scary scenario for New Zealand. New modelling prepared for the Government by Professor Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant outbreak 2021 ~ Estimating Ro and Re

We estimate under the current Lockdown Level 4 in Auckland one person may infect 6 to 6.3 other people in New Zealand in the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19. Without lockdown we have estimated one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect 9 to 12.75 other people. See: COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 2 ~ Delta variant ~ Lockdown 4 appears to be working

Lockdown Level 4 appears now to be starting to bring down the daily rate of increase (r) of case numbers of COVID-19 in New Zealand. Update: See: COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula ee the last column in the table below where values for…

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ ~ Delta variant ~ May one person infect 12 others?

Based on NZ current case numbers for the Delta variant, we estimate on average one person may infect at least 12 others (Ro > 12) without quarantine or isolation. Case numbers may close to triple over a two-day period (1.7 x 1.7 = 2.89). For the Delta variant worldwide, we have estimated Ro to be…

COVID Odyssey: Get your jabs

Get your jabs There are those that would extinguish The light that God has made And interrupt our journey And all the plans we laid There are those that would take our spirit And make us feel such pain To wash away the progress And years of hopes and gain We must all stand united…

COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?

Please read Updates:https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windupCOVID Odyssey Ro update: Occam’s Razor~ A close shave: In NZ is Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6? What are Ro values worldwide?COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4COVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4COVIDWorldAvNewRanked4rCOVIDWorldAvNewAlpha4r We estimate Ro (see below) by applying the analysis undertaken in New Zealand to the rest of the world. Note that data for the analysis below is for confirmed cases…

COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents

COVID Odyssey Contents (see below for Contents) You can come back to this page from the HOME/ CONTENTS menu from: COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: New Year Fare ~ Contents (Hover over the HOME/ CONTENTS menu at the top of the screen) COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace Alan Grace’s journey exploring COVID-19. Findings (See #6 below)….

COVID Odyssey. COVID-19 NZ: [In NZ Ro ~ 3, 4, or 6?] See Update: Re~5.8 & Ro~6

COVID Odyssey COVID-19 in New Zealand Findings Alan Neil Grace [Updates will be available soon only in an ebook; Contact Alan Grace for details about the ebook] Introduction [Ro ~ 3, 4 or 6?] See Update: Re ~ 5.8 and Ro ~ 6 Please read this update (accept original results): Welcome Search Results for “windup”…

Welcome

Welcome. My name is Alan Grace. I live in Titirangi (Auckland, New Zealand). Welcome to Alan’s Ark, The Amazing Phoenix, and My COVID Odyssey (all accessible on this site). You may like to look at this post: COVID-19~ 2020 outbreak~ Conclusions up to August 6 2020 My COVID Odyssey posts prior to April 2022 have…