COVID-19: World deaths exponential

COVID-19 Death curves

Cubes not spurned by Rubik
World curves were turned cubic
Death’s got new potential
To yearn exponential
Idea not cherubic

Alan Grace
20 March 2020

In China up to the mid-point (my estimated day 23.5), the death curve was quadratic (based on x-squared).

World deaths are exponential. For a while they appeared they might be cubic (based on x-cubed).

Below is a graph I created today:


The cumulative number of world deaths (D) from COVID-19) is estimated to be:

D = 177*EXP(0.17*(x-35))+2675

where EXP means e (approximately 2.71828) to the power of
and x is the number of days since 22 January.

Today is day 58 (official data for today not released yet but currently the total is 11,399 deaths).

The estimated cumulative number of deaths for today is 11,507.

We will refine our formula in coming days.

We need to be careful about extrapolating outside the current data range.

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Data for my posts can be found at:

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