COVID-19 Death curves
Cubes not spurned by Rubik
World curves were turned cubic
Death’s got new potential
To yearn exponential
Idea not cherubic
20 March 2020
In China up to the mid-point (my estimated day 23.5), the death curve was quadratic (based on x-squared).
World deaths are exponential. For a while they appeared they might be cubic (based on x-cubed).
Below is a graph I created today:
The cumulative number of world deaths (D) from COVID-19) is estimated to be:
D = 177*EXP(0.17*(x-35))+2675
where EXP means e (approximately 2.71828) to the power of
and x is the number of days since 22 January.
Today is day 58 (official data for today not released yet but currently the total is 11,399 deaths).
The estimated cumulative number of deaths for today is 11,507.
We will refine our formula in coming days.
We need to be careful about extrapolating outside the current data range.
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