Coronavirus Model 3 (Sigmoid curve). Can the Grand Total of deaths in China be less than 4,250?

We use a Sigmoid curve (Logistic function; “S” shape) to estimate the grand total number of deaths in China. Within 2 months from 22 January, we estimate the grand total may be less than 4,250 deaths. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function The standard graph looks like this: We notice that around 18-19 February (Days 27 & 28 from…

Is Chinese Coronavirus death data fake news? A quadratic fits well to the data

Many wonder about the accuracy of the Coronavirus data. We look at the number of deaths and find that a quadratic fits very well. Is this coincidence? Is it too good to be true? Coronavirus data can be found here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries We plot the number of deaths below using the number of days since 22…

Will Coronavirus infections reach 800,000 in mid March and 100 million by the end of April???

Many people think the figures released by China for the spread of Coronavirus are low. I have developed a simple spreadsheet projecting the spread of Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Like others we assume the disease started spreading in mid November 2019. Also see my next post: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2020/02/19/are-chinese-coronavirus-deaths-fake-news-a-quadratic-fits-well-to-the-data/ We assume an incubation period of 6 days (stats suggest…