COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 4 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Outbreak 2021~ What can we learn from the data?

We look again at the data for the current Delta variant outbreak in New Zealand.

NZCasesDeltaMonth1

Also see this version:

NZCasesDeltaRollingM1

Below is a zoomed in snapshot of the above:

NZCasesDeltaMonthZoom1

The figures in the first column (except the last two) are a rolling 30-day total.

We have a number of days when the total was around 1000, giving an annual figure around 12,000.

The figure yesterday was 581, close to 7,000 annually (when multiplied by 12).

Except for 637 and 581, all the other numbers equate to over 8,000 annually.

We have two averages at the bottom of column 1.

The first, 871.4, is the average of all the 30-day totals.

The bottom number, 873.5, is the average daily figure (multiplied by 31) calculated from the current total number of cases, 1268.

These numbers are very close, giving a 360 day figure of 10,456.5 and 10,482.1 cases respectively.

These averages are close to 10,500 cases.

Earlier in column 1 we estimate the total number of cases in this outbreak to be between 1,329 and 1,517 cases. To see how this was calculated, look at:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 17 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Will the total exceed 1500 cases?

We have estimated that when New Zealand reaches 67% fully vaccinated, we estimate that in a worst-case scenario New Zealand over the next 12 months will have 12,000 cases and 80 deaths. See:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 2 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

You may also like to look at these polls on Neighbourly, an NZ social media App:

https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67017036
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67022662

You may also like to look at:

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=Spring+Spruce+up

For all 2020 data in the first outbreak see:

NZCases2020Outbreak

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 5 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Where will the midpoint be?

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