COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 5 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2 results~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

A suitable meaning

Let us not talk at cross-purpose
Let us stop this COVID circus
We are able
Let us table
Suitable means fit for purpose

Alan Grace
18 September 2021

We will show that the most suitable response for Poll 2 (see below) is

24,000 Cases.

For the updated best reponse see:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 18 ~ Post#901: Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta~ Update to Poll 2

Vaccination will already be having an effect on the number of cases. As restrictions are eased in Auckland case numbers will rise. It is difficult to see what effect the increased vaccination level may have to reduce the rise.

Firstly, please review:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 3 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 2~ How may vaccination rates affect a worst-case scenario?

Results of Poll 2

You should now have enough background to consider Poll 2.

Poll2

Poll2b

Below are all 33 votes for Poll 2:

Votesb33

We will assume that the most suitable answer for Poll 1 is

12,000 cases (and 80 deaths) as we have previously demonstrated.

Poll 1:

COVIDpollDescr

COVIDpoll

For Poll 1, in the current outbreak in the first month we had about 1,000 cases which we multiplied by 12 to get a yearly figure of 12,000 cases. For the case data, see:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 4 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Outbreak 2021~ What can we learn from the data?

We will show that the most suitable response for Poll 2 is

24,000 Cases.

We now start with this scenario:

COVID80

In our example we have 80% fully vaccinated one month after 67% fully vaccinated is reached.

Even when in a worst-cases scenario there can be 12,000 cases over a twelve-month period, it does not follow that there will also be only 12,000 cases over a twelve-month period starting one month later.

Otherwise there would always be no more than12,000 cases!

We can expect that the number of cases (particularly serious cases) to be far less as the vaccination level increases than they would have been without any increase in the vaccination level.

For the first 12 months after 67% is reached, in the example we have a total near 12,000 cases (11,800) starting with 500 cases in the first month.

We expect in the first months the number of cases will be small. They are likely to become smaller as the percentage fully vaccinated increases.

Somewhere in the following 12 months we hope that 90% fully vaccinated may be obtained.

Regardless somewhere in those 12 months the border will be re-opened and we can expect a greater number of cases.

A greater number of cases may be obtained as a result of the borders being opened or through the presence in New Zealand of a more virulent variant of COVID-19.

Since we have a low number of cases in the first months, we can cope with a number of cases greater than 1,000 for a number of months and at the 67% level still have as twelve-month total less than 12,000 cases.

We have experienced the Delta variant in New Zealand but even now in the world we have up to the Mu variant. See the Greek alphabet at the bottom of this post.

As in the table the total number of cases for 12 months after 80% fully vaccinated is reached is

12,500 = 11,800 + 1,200 – 500.

12,000 cases has been exceeded in our example and therefore in Poll 2 for a worst-case scenario we need to choose 24,000 cases.

Labelling the choices a) to f) we conclude that the best ranking for Poll 2 is

c), b), a), d), e), f) since d), e), and f) cannot be worst-cases.

Notes:

Instead of 1,200 any number above 700 will work in the example for 80% month 12 so long as the total is adjusted (the total will still be above 12,000 as required).

For 67% Month 12, the number 1,100 can be deleted so long as the total 11,800 remains.

Any number can be in 67% Month 1 so long as 80% month 12 is more than 200 greater.

Below is an example with some outbreaks, one major:

COVIDSampleYear

At 67%, the yearly total is less than 12,000 cases but not for 80%.

The reality is that with the increased level of immunisation (80% vs 67%) we expect the number of cases to be far less at 80% than at 67% . We expect that even without 67% immunisation (or even half this level) from our cases to date the number of cases in New Zealand even from the start of the present Delta outbreak will be far less than 12,000 cases in a worst-case scenario over the next twelve months. However we feel than 24,000 cases is the choice that should be made especially in light of one expert opinion indicating more than 50 times as many cases (1.3 m).

It is better to choose the increased amount (24,000 cases) since it is only double. The poll for 67% did not have 24,000 cases as an option.

We appear to have these worst-case scenarios:

Vacc80

Neither Hendy nor Jones appear to have have considered New Zealand’s historic and current case numbers in their estimates.
Expect far less than 12,000 cases over 12 months but plan for 24,000 cases (average 2,000 per month).

Greek alphabet

Upper Case Letter Lower Case Letter Greek Letter Name
Α α Alpha
Β β Beta
Γ γ Gamma
Δ δ Delta
Ε ε Epsilon
Ζ ζ Zeta
Η η Eta
Θ θ Theta
Ι ι Iota
Κ κ Kappa
Λ λ Lambda
Μ μ Mu
Ν ν Nu
Ξ ξ Xi
Ο ο Omicron
Π π Pi
Ρ ρ Rho
Σ σ,ς * Sigma
Τ τ Tau
Υ υ Upsilon
Φ φ Phi
Χ χ Chi
Ψ ψ Psi
Ω ω Omega

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