COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 31 ~ Post#914: NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 6 results~ Infections in NZ community

We look at the results for Poll 6:



We assume that the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) in NZ is 0.1%. See:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 30 ~ Post#913: World COVID-19~ People infected ten times number of cases?

We look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and adjust the percentage so that the IFR is right.

We obtain:


The estimated number of infections is obtained by multiplying the number of cases by 4.

Below are the choices chosen in the poll on a social media website (Neighbourly):



The best answer in the poll is therefore 50,000 cases.

However if we only consider the current Delta outbreak which has been ongoing for three months we see that:

We see that the percentage for the CFR is close to the required IFR.

One less death would have made the CFR and hence the IFR about right at 0.1%.

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