COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 31 ~ Post#914: NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 6 results~ Infections in NZ community

We look at the results for Poll 6:

PollQ

  PollChoices

We assume that the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) in NZ is 0.1%. See:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 30 ~ Post#913: World COVID-19~ People infected ten times number of cases?

We look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and adjust the percentage so that the IFR is right.

We obtain:

IFRpoll

The estimated number of infections is obtained by multiplying the number of cases by 4.

Below are the choices chosen in the poll on a social media website (Neighbourly):

Poll6Votes

See:
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67152996

The best answer in the poll is therefore 50,000 cases.

However if we only consider the current Delta outbreak which has been ongoing for three months we see that:
IFRpollDelta

We see that the percentage for the CFR is close to the required IFR.

One less death would have made the CFR and hence the IFR about right at 0.1%.

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