We look at the results for Poll 6:
We assume that the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) in NZ is 0.1%. See:
COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 30 ~ Post#913: World COVID-19~ People infected ten times number of cases?
We look at the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and adjust the percentage so that the IFR is right.
We obtain:
The estimated number of infections is obtained by multiplying the number of cases by 4.
Below are the choices chosen in the poll on a social media website (Neighbourly):
See:
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67152996
The best answer in the poll is therefore 50,000 cases.
However if we only consider the current Delta outbreak which has been ongoing for three months we see that:
We see that the percentage for the CFR is close to the required IFR.
One less death would have made the CFR and hence the IFR about right at 0.1%.
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