COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 29 ~ Post#912: NZ COVID-19~ PANDA: Is NZ Death% twice world IFR? Nope!

In New Zealand up to 12 November, we have been very lucky with only 33 deaths and less than 8,000 (7945) confirmed cases of COVID-19.

This is an CFR (see below) of just over 0.415% (33/7945 ~ 0.004153).

PANDA says

According to the World Health Organisation, the mean infection fatality rate (“IFR”) for COVID-19 is less than 0.2%.


The Elephants In The Room

Below are the latest stats from WHO:

Globally, as of 4:32pm CET, 12 November 2021, there have been 251,788,329 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 5,077,907 deaths, reported to WHO. As of 10 November 2021.


This gives an CFR of

5,077,907/251,788,329 = 0.020167 or just over 2%.

Update see:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 30 ~ Post#913: World COVID-19~ People infected ten times number of cases?




The Elephants In The Room

The recent paper referred to by PANDA is only a preprint. This means that it has not yet been published.

It has also not been peer reviewed. This means that no recognised experts have considered the paper.

The data was from studies done in 2020.

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview

Cathrine AxforsJohn P.A. Ioannidis

Data Synthesis Twenty-three seroprevalence surveys representing 14 countries were included. Across all countries, the median IFR in community-dwelling elderly and elderly overall was 2.4%.

Data Sources Seroprevalence studies done in 2020 and identified by any of four existing systematic reviews.

For latest cases and deaths in the world a few days ago you may also like to look at:


Also see:

Semenzato et al (2021)


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