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COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 19 ~ Post#902: NZ COVID-19 Delta~ New calculation method for worst case scenarios

Posted by AlanGraceNZ on

We introduce a modified method to calculate a worst case scenario for Auckland and New Zealand.

Our expected dramatic drop in cases has not occurred as Auckland in particular gets a significant number of its population (over 12) fully-vaccinated.

We obtain a worst-case Auckland figure (66,702 cases) and a yearly worst-case total for New Zealand (208,443 cases) which we round to 67,000 and 210,000 cases respectively.

DeltaWorst1

Also see:

DeltaWorstCaseD

For background see:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 18 ~ Post#901: Auckland NZ COVID-19 Delta~ Update to Poll 2

We start counting days once the total number of cases reaches 30 or more.

We calculate averages each day until the average peaks (Day 13).

We also calculate a daily growth factor (r) and estimate the total number of cases using a formula of the C = ar^d where d = 0, 1, 2, … , and a is the (top) value in the column (for d = 0) and each number below is multiplied by r = SQRT(2).

We take the estimated number of cases for the day when the average for the actual total peaks (2375.7 cases) and calculate the daily average, weekly. and yearly average for this (66,702 cases).

This gives us the yearly worst-case scenario for Auckland (67,000 cases).

Note: 51.231 x 365 =18,699.315 cases. This may be a good estimate for the yearly number of cases in Auckland (not a worst-case scenario), say 19,000 cases.

We scale the worst-case Auckland figure (66,702) to get a yearly worst-case total for New Zealand (208,443 cases) which we round to 67,000 and 210,000 cases respectively.

While the “Auckland” worst-case estimate (67,000 cases) may be suitable as a worst-case figure for all of New Zealand, we cannot assume this will continue. The number of new cases in the rest of the country may become similar to Auckland (pro rata) in the future.

The estimate for the number of deaths in a worst-case scenario remains at 80.

Fortunately presently only 3% of the doubly-vaccinated require hospitalisation.

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