COVID Odyssey: Autumn Addendum Post #971~ COVID Odyssey Time Capsule Addendum

COVID Odyssey Addendum

Summer has ceased Autumn’s awesome
My thoughts come least my mind’s caught numb
I feel like an April fool
I have sealed my time capsule
Before adding my addendum

Alan Grace
26 March 2022

The Time Capsule embargo was lifted briefly on 30 March to include this addendum.

Future posts can be found at:
https://agrace.altervista.org/

TimeAddendum

The COVID Odyssey website has become an open Time Capsule:
COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey investigating/experiencing COVID-19 life (wordpress.com)

A version of this post can be found at:
https://agrace.altervista.org/covid-odyssey-autumn-addendum-post-971-covid-odyssey-time-capsule-addendum/

This addendum covers:

The PDFs below may be easier to read and contains a wider range of values:
CasesReRoC5

The actual value for Ro will lie between our values calculated for Re and Ro.

We could also estimate Ro using r^1.1, the geometric mean of r and r^1.2. We obtain:
CasesReRoD

In the first 2020 Outbreak New Zealand, r =1.4 and hence r^2 = 1.96. This is close to 2 so we thought that when r = 1.4, for Ro, r was close to SQRT(2). At a minimum this could be the case. Let z = ln( SQRT(2) ) / ln(1.4) and use r^z in our formula where z = 1.030021359. This gives the result we require when r = 1.4. We obtain (see image below):

CasesReRoE
CasesReRoE2
(the last two columns show the increase in r when estimating Ro)
CasesReRoE3
(includes Ro/Re)

This provides low estimates for Ro, close to Re as required when r = 1.4. We adopt these estimates.

nzdata

Both Re and Ro are estimated using this formula:

Ro

where n = 10 Days.

For our upper estimate in the range for Ro, substitute r^1.2 for r in the formula.

Please see the WELCOME menu for background and definitions at:
COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey investigating/experiencing COVID-19 life (wordpress.com)

The PDFs below may be easier to read and contains a wider range of values:
CasesReRoC5

The actual value for Ro will lie between our values calculated for Re and Ro.

We could also estimate Ro using r^1.1, the geometric mean of r and r^1.2. We obtain:
CasesReRoD

In the first 2020 Outbreak New Zealand, r =1.4 and hence r^2 = 1.96. This is close to 2 so we thought that when r = 1.4, for Ro, r was close to SQRT(2). At a minimum this could be the case. Let z = ln( SQRT(2) ) / ln(1.4) and use r^z in our formula where z = 1.030021359. This gives the result we require when r = 1.4. We obtain (see image below):

CasesReRoE
CasesReRoE2

For r in the range 1.34 to 1.5, Ro is in the range 5 to 8.

For worldwide estimates for r up to August 2020, see:
NZCOVIDWorldAllCasesCPMrNew

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey (wordpress.com)

NZ has had around 600,000 cases (596,402) of COVID-19.

This is getting close to the number we expected (620,000) by the end of this month. See:
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67463549
COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected? – COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace’s vir[tu]al journey (wordpress.com)

It remains to be seen when further peaks will come.

The number of cases reported for Auckland on Sunday (for Saturday) was below 2,000 (1886) and just over 10,200 countywide. See:
10,239 community cases; 848 hospitalisations; 28 in ICU; 4 deaths reported today | Ministry of Health NZ

What we have called a future PI variant of COVID-19 may end up being estimates for the BA.2 variant of Omicron. See:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?

Walk the Labyrinth

A quiet place for contemplation
Where silence finds answers
And your soul gets to speak
Where the truth snakes its way
Through the twists and turns of the maze
In perfect form and alignment
To the Universe
Where you meet your deepest thoughts
Without the cacophony of busyness
Drowning the messages
That you most need to hear
Where your search will find you
New things to consider
A different perspective
And a tome will gain meaning
Come take the glorious path
Of enlightening travel
To the centre of healing
To the centre of whole

(three words modified by)
Alan Grace
17 March 2022

Can you find my changes?

Original version

Debbie Gravett
Walk the Labyrinth – Debbie Gravett (wordpress.com)

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